From 0012f5b4db0f6b9defd6afd2940d3ae8acc9ca1c Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: TheRON Date: Thu, 30 Apr 2026 15:07:40 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] obsolete --- ...S-0004-source-motive-changes-confidence.md | 167 ------------------ 1 file changed, 167 deletions(-) delete mode 100644 docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0004-source-motive-changes-confidence.md diff --git a/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0004-source-motive-changes-confidence.md b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0004-source-motive-changes-confidence.md deleted file mode 100644 index 4ec0cf7..0000000 --- a/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0004-source-motive-changes-confidence.md +++ /dev/null @@ -1,167 +0,0 @@ -# CORPUS-0004 -## Source Motive Changes Confidence -### Status: Training Corpus Seed -### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty -### Purpose: Teach that the reliability of a report depends partly on what the source may gain or avoid by shaping the report -### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0004-source-motive-changes-confidence.md - ---- - -## 0. Scenario - -A trader in Ostia hears that oil prices in Capua are rising. - -The report comes from a cart owner who has empty space heading toward Capua. - -The report may be true. - -But the source benefits if the trader believes it and hires the cart. - -The trader must evaluate the report and the source's motive separately. - ---- - -## 1. Report Received - -A cart owner says: - -> Oil is selling high in Capua. If you have stock, send it now. - -The same cart owner then adds: - -> I have space leaving today. - -This does not prove the report is false. - -It does mean the source has a reason to make the opportunity sound urgent. - ---- - -## 2. Known Facts - -| Fact | Value | -|---|---| -| Location of trader | Ostia | -| Destination discussed | Capua | -| Good | oil | -| Reported condition | Capua price rising | -| Source | cart owner | -| Source benefit if believed | cart space sold | -| Current true Capua price | unknown | - ---- - -## 3. Why Motive Matters - -A source may shape a report because he wants: - -- cart space sold -- goods bought -- goods avoided -- a rival delayed -- a buyer reassured -- a creditor calmed -- a price raised or lowered -- attention moved away from another fact - -Motive does not equal falsehood. - -Motive changes confidence. - ---- - -## 4. Possible Interpretations - -### Interpretation A — Report True - -Oil really is selling high in Capua. - -The cart owner is both informed and self-interested. - -### Interpretation B — Report Exaggerated - -Oil sells somewhat higher, but not enough to justify urgency. - -The cart owner amplifies the price to fill space. - -### Interpretation C — Report Stale - -The cart owner heard old news and repeats it because it helps him. - -### Interpretation D — Report False - -The cart owner invents or distorts the claim to sell transport. - -The trader must not assume which interpretation is correct without more evidence. - ---- - -## 5. Correct Model Behavior - -The model should separate: - -| Category | Meaning | -|---|---| -| claim_content | what the source says | -| source_identity | who says it | -| source_motive | what the source may gain | -| source_access | whether the source could plausibly know | -| report_age | how old the information may be | -| confidence_adjustment | how motive changes reliability | -| action_decision | whether to act, verify, reduce exposure, or decline | - -A motivated source can still provide useful information. - -The confidence should be adjusted, not automatically set to zero. - ---- - -## 6. Incorrect Model Behavior - -The model should not: - -- accept a report at face value because it is useful -- reject every motivated report as false -- ignore who benefits if the actor believes the report -- confuse motive with proof of deception -- ignore whether the source could plausibly know -- treat all sources as equally reliable -- calculate final profit from a motivated report alone - ---- - -## 7. Decision Options - -The trader may: - -- ask a second source -- negotiate lower cart terms -- send a smaller cargo -- reserve cart space conditionally -- ask when the source heard the report -- compare other transport prices -- act quickly while accepting source-risk -- decline and wait for better confirmation - -The best action depends on margin, urgency, and confidence. - ---- - -## 8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used - -This example uses: - -- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly` -- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information` -- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss` -- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions` -- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0020-posture-changes-by-audience` -- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price` -- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report` -- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports` - ---- - -## 9. Success Condition - -If the model sees a report and asks not only what was said, but who benefits if it is believed, this file is functioning correctly.