diff --git a/docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0001-oil-ostia-to-capua-basic-venture.chunked.md b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0001-oil-ostia-to-capua-basic-venture.chunked.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1c77ab0 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0001-oil-ostia-to-capua-basic-venture.chunked.md @@ -0,0 +1,318 @@ +# CORPUS-0001 +## Oil From Ostia To Capua: Basic Venture +### Status: Training Corpus Seed +### Layer: Layer_1--Worked_Examples +### Purpose: Teach a first worked venture by combining place, local price, total cost, profit, delay, and risk +### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0001-oil-ostia-to-capua-basic-venture.md + +--- + + + +## 0. Scenario + +A trader in Ostia considers sending oil to Capua. + +He has heard that oil sells for more in Capua than in Ostia. + +This is not enough to prove profit. + +The trader must compare local prices, total costs, delay, and risk before deciding. + +--- + +## 1. Known Facts + +| Fact | Value | +|---|---:| +| Origin | Ostia | +| Destination | Capua | +| Good | oil | +| Purchase price in Ostia | 10 asses | +| Expected sale price in Capua | 18 asses | +| Porterage and handling | 2 asses | +| Cart share | 3 asses | +| Storage before departure | 1 as | +| Handling at Capua | 1 as | + +--- + +## 2. First Incorrect Calculation + +A weak model may calculate: + +```text +18 - 10 = 8 asses profit +``` + +This is wrong because it subtracts only purchase price. + +It ignores movement, storage, and handling. + +--- + +## 3. Total Cost Calculation + +Total cost includes every cost required to make the oil available for sale in Capua. + +```text +purchase price: 10 asses +porterage and handling: 2 asses +cart share: 3 asses +storage: 1 as +Capua handling: 1 as +-------------------------------- +total cost: 17 asses +``` + +--- + +## 4. Actual Profit Calculation + +```text +sale value - total cost = profit +18 asses - 17 asses = 1 as profit +``` + +The venture is profitable, but only barely. + +A one-as profit may not justify the risk unless the trader has no better option or expects future benefit. + +--- + +## 5. Unknowns + +The trader still does not know: + +- whether the Capua price is current +- whether a rival shipment will arrive first +- whether the cart leaves on time +- whether the oil leaks or breaks +- whether storage costs rise +- whether the buyer can pay +- whether the trader misses a better opportunity + +The arithmetic is only the beginning. + +--- + + + +--- + + + +## 0. Scenario + +A trader in Ostia considers sending oil to Capua. + +He has heard that oil sells for more in Capua than in Ostia. + +This is not enough to prove profit. + +The trader must compare local prices, total costs, delay, and risk before deciding. + +--- + +## 1. Known Facts + +| Fact | Value | +|---|---:| +| Origin | Ostia | +| Destination | Capua | +| Good | oil | +| Purchase price in Ostia | 10 asses | +| Expected sale price in Capua | 18 asses | +| Porterage and handling | 2 asses | +| Cart share | 3 asses | +| Storage before departure | 1 as | +| Handling at Capua | 1 as | + +--- + +## 6. Risk Variants + +### Variant A — Delay + +If the cart is delayed and storage rises by 2 asses: + +```text +new total cost = 19 asses +sale value = 18 asses +result = 1 as loss +``` + +### Variant B — Rival Arrival + +If a rival arrives first and Capua buyers lower offers to 15 asses: + +```text +sale value = 15 asses +total cost = 17 asses +result = 2 asses loss +``` + +### Variant C — Better Sale Price + +If demand rises and the oil sells for 22 asses: + +```text +sale value = 22 asses +total cost = 17 asses +result = 5 asses profit +``` + +--- + + + +--- + + + +## 0. Scenario + +A trader in Ostia considers sending oil to Capua. + +He has heard that oil sells for more in Capua than in Ostia. + +This is not enough to prove profit. + +The trader must compare local prices, total costs, delay, and risk before deciding. + +--- + +## 1. Known Facts + +| Fact | Value | +|---|---:| +| Origin | Ostia | +| Destination | Capua | +| Good | oil | +| Purchase price in Ostia | 10 asses | +| Expected sale price in Capua | 18 asses | +| Porterage and handling | 2 asses | +| Cart share | 3 asses | +| Storage before departure | 1 as | +| Handling at Capua | 1 as | + +--- + +## 7. Correct Model Behavior + +The model should reason: + +- trade requires Ostia and Capua +- the two cities may have different local prices +- purchase price is not total cost +- profit is sale value minus total cost +- delay can erase profit +- rival action can change destination price +- expected profit is not actual profit until settlement + +--- + +## 8. Incorrect Model Behavior + +The model should not: + +- assume one universal oil price +- calculate profit from purchase price alone +- ignore cart, porterage, storage, or handling +- treat the expected Capua price as certain +- assume the opportunity remains open indefinitely +- ignore rival traders +- treat a barely profitable venture as safe + +--- + +## 9. Layer-0 Concepts Used + +This example uses: + +- `CORPUS-0001-trade-requires-two-locations` +- `CORPUS-0002-goods-have-local-prices` +- `CORPUS-0004-cost-includes-more-than-purchase-price` +- `CORPUS-0005-profit-is-sale-minus-total-cost` +- `CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost` +- `CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss` +- `CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions` + +--- + +## 10. Success Condition + +If the model sees a simple trade and automatically asks about location, total cost, timing, and risk before declaring profit, this file is functioning correctly. + + + +--- diff --git a/docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0002-one-as-margin-and-break-even.chunked.md b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0002-one-as-margin-and-break-even.chunked.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c2e2991 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0002-one-as-margin-and-break-even.chunked.md @@ -0,0 +1,307 @@ +# CORPUS-0002 +## One-As Margin And Break-Even +### Status: Training Corpus Seed +### Layer: Layer_1--Worked_Examples +### Purpose: Teach that a tiny sale margin can disappear once small costs, delay, or loss are counted +### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0002-one-as-margin-and-break-even.md + +--- + + + +## 0. Scenario + +A trader buys a small good in Ostia for 3 asses. + +He expects to sell it in Capua for 4 asses. + +At first glance, the venture appears profitable. + +The expected spread is only 1 as. + +A one-as margin is fragile. +Almost any additional cost can erase it. + +--- + +## 1. Known Facts + +| Fact | Value | +|---|---:| +| Origin | Ostia | +| Destination | Capua | +| Purchase price | 3 asses | +| Expected sale price | 4 asses | +| Gross spread | 1 as | + +--- + +## 2. First Incorrect Calculation + +A weak model may calculate: + +```text +4 asses - 3 asses = 1 as profit +``` + +This is incomplete. + +The calculation ignores every cost required to move, hold, protect, or sell the good. + +--- + +## 3. Break-Even Point + +The trader breaks even only if total cost is 4 asses or less. + +```text +sale value = 4 asses +break-even total cost = 4 asses +``` + +Since the purchase price is already 3 asses, the trader can spend only 1 additional as before profit disappears. + +```text +maximum additional cost before loss = 1 as +``` + +--- + + + +--- + + + +## 0. Scenario + +A trader buys a small good in Ostia for 3 asses. + +He expects to sell it in Capua for 4 asses. + +At first glance, the venture appears profitable. + +The expected spread is only 1 as. + +A one-as margin is fragile. +Almost any additional cost can erase it. + +--- + +## 1. Known Facts + +| Fact | Value | +|---|---:| +| Origin | Ostia | +| Destination | Capua | +| Purchase price | 3 asses | +| Expected sale price | 4 asses | +| Gross spread | 1 as | + +--- + +## 4. Cost Variants + +### Variant A — No Added Cost + +```text +purchase price = 3 asses +sale value = 4 asses +profit = 1 as +``` + +The venture succeeds. + +### Variant B — One Additional As + +```text +purchase price = 3 asses +handling = 1 as +total cost = 4 asses +sale value = 4 asses +profit = 0 +``` + +The venture breaks even. + +### Variant C — Two Additional Asses + +```text +purchase price = 3 asses +handling + delay = 2 asses +total cost = 5 asses +sale value = 4 asses +loss = 1 as +``` + +The venture fails. + +--- + +## 5. Why Small Margins Matter + +A small margin is not useless. + +It may still be acceptable if: + +- the trader is already sending a cart +- the good fills unused space +- the sale builds trust +- the buyer may become a repeat contact +- the good is part of a larger bundle +- the trader has no better use for the coin + +But a small margin is dangerous if: + +- transport must be paid separately +- storage is uncertain +- delay is likely +- the destination price is stale +- the buyer may refuse +- rivals may arrive first + +--- + + + +--- + + + +## 0. Scenario + +A trader buys a small good in Ostia for 3 asses. + +He expects to sell it in Capua for 4 asses. + +At first glance, the venture appears profitable. + +The expected spread is only 1 as. + +A one-as margin is fragile. +Almost any additional cost can erase it. + +--- + +## 1. Known Facts + +| Fact | Value | +|---|---:| +| Origin | Ostia | +| Destination | Capua | +| Purchase price | 3 asses | +| Expected sale price | 4 asses | +| Gross spread | 1 as | + +--- + +## 6. Correct Model Behavior + +The model should reason: + +- a one-as spread is not automatically profit +- break-even depends on total cost +- tiny margins are fragile +- low-value goods may still matter when bundled +- context determines whether small gain is worth risk + +--- + +## 7. Incorrect Model Behavior + +The model should not: + +- treat every positive spread as safe profit +- ignore small costs because they look minor +- assume one-as profit is always worth pursuing +- assume tiny trades are meaningless +- ignore bundling, repeat contact, or unused capacity + +--- + +## 8. Layer-0 Concepts Used + +This example uses: + +- `CORPUS-0002-goods-have-local-prices` +- `CORPUS-0003-money-has-purchasing-power` +- `CORPUS-0004-cost-includes-more-than-purchase-price` +- `CORPUS-0005-profit-is-sale-minus-total-cost` +- `CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost` +- `CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss` + +--- + +## 9. Success Condition + +If the model sees a one-as spread and immediately asks whether total cost leaves any margin, this file is functioning correctly. + + + +--- diff --git a/docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0003-arithmetic-resolves-the-venture.chunked.md b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0003-arithmetic-resolves-the-venture.chunked.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5567e3b --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0003-arithmetic-resolves-the-venture.chunked.md @@ -0,0 +1,279 @@ +# CORPUS-0003 +## Arithmetic Resolves The Venture +### Status: Training Corpus Seed +### Layer: Layer_1--Worked_Examples +### Purpose: Teach that arithmetic is not rumor, posture, or expectation; once the values are known, arithmetic records the outcome +### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0003-arithmetic-resolves-the-venture.md + +--- + + + +## 0. Scenario + +A trader sends oil from Ostia to Capua. + +Before settlement, many things are uncertain: + +- final sale price +- total cost +- delay +- damage +- buyer reliability +- rival action +- future opportunity + +The trader may act because he believes one of these numbers will improve. + +But once the venture settles, arithmetic resolves the outcome. + +--- + +## 1. Known Final Values + +| Item | Value | +|---|---:| +| Sale value in Capua | 18 asses | +| Purchase price in Ostia | 10 asses | +| Porterage and handling | 2 asses | +| Cart share | 3 asses | +| Storage | 1 as | +| Capua handling | 1 as | + +Total cost: + +```text +10 + 2 + 3 + 1 + 1 = 17 asses +``` + +Final result: + +```text +18 - 17 = 1 as profit +``` + +The trader may boast, complain, or explain. + +The arithmetic remains 1 as profit. + +--- + +## 2. Actor Belief Before Settlement + +Before settlement, the trader may believe: + +- the Capua price will rise +- the cart will arrive early +- a buyer will pay above market +- rival cargo will be delayed +- the sale will create future trust +- small profit is acceptable because of future access + +These beliefs may justify the venture. + +They do not change the final arithmetic after settlement. + +--- + +## 3. Posture Does Not Change The Account + +A trader may present the venture differently to different audiences. + +To a creditor, he may call it a success. + +To a rival, he may conceal the margin. + +To a partner, he may emphasize future benefit. + +To himself, he may call it a necessary first step. + +But the account still records: + +```text +sale value - total cost = outcome +``` + +--- + +## 4. When A Loss Is Rational + +A trader may knowingly accept an immediate loss. + +Example: + +| Item | Value | +|---|---:| +| Sale value | 16 asses | +| Total cost | 17 asses | +| Result | 1 as loss | + +This may still be rational if it creates: + +- a trusted buyer +- future credit +- route knowledge +- warehouse access +- reputation for reliability +- a later profitable venture + +But the immediate venture is still a loss. + +A rational loss is not a hidden profit. + +It is a loss accepted for another reason. + +--- + + + +--- + + + +## 0. Scenario + +A trader sends oil from Ostia to Capua. + +Before settlement, many things are uncertain: + +- final sale price +- total cost +- delay +- damage +- buyer reliability +- rival action +- future opportunity + +The trader may act because he believes one of these numbers will improve. + +But once the venture settles, arithmetic resolves the outcome. + +--- + +## 1. Known Final Values + +| Item | Value | +|---|---:| +| Sale value in Capua | 18 asses | +| Purchase price in Ostia | 10 asses | +| Porterage and handling | 2 asses | +| Cart share | 3 asses | +| Storage | 1 as | +| Capua handling | 1 as | + +Total cost: + +```text +10 + 2 + 3 + 1 + 1 = 17 asses +``` + +Final result: + +```text +18 - 17 = 1 as profit +``` + +The trader may boast, complain, or explain. + +The arithmetic remains 1 as profit. + +--- + +## 5. Incorrect Model Behavior + +The model should not: + +- let confidence override arithmetic +- treat expected future gain as present profit +- treat reputation benefit as coin profit +- allow posture to change the account +- ignore costs because the actor claims success +- call a loss profitable because it may lead to something later + +Future benefit may matter. + +It must be tracked separately from immediate arithmetic outcome. + +--- + +## 6. Correct Model Behavior + +The model should separate: + +| Category | Meaning | +|---|---| +| expected outcome | what actor believes before settlement | +| final arithmetic outcome | sale value minus total cost after settlement | +| strategic value | non-coin or future benefit from the venture | +| posture | how actor presents the result to others | + +These may differ. + +Only the final arithmetic outcome determines immediate profit or loss. + +--- + +## 7. Layer-0 Concepts Used + +This example uses: + +- `CORPUS-0004-cost-includes-more-than-purchase-price` +- `CORPUS-0005-profit-is-sale-minus-total-cost` +- `CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost` +- `CORPUS-0010-credit-depends-on-trust` +- `CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss` +- `CORPUS-0020-posture-changes-by-audience` + +--- + +## 8. Success Condition + +If the model stops allowing belief, posture, or future hope to rewrite the settled account, and starts recording arithmetic outcome separately from strategic interpretation, this file is functioning correctly. + + + +--- diff --git a/docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0004-small-profit-vs-future-access.chunked.md b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0004-small-profit-vs-future-access.chunked.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b4137a5 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0004-small-profit-vs-future-access.chunked.md @@ -0,0 +1,264 @@ +# CORPUS-0004 +## Small Profit Versus Future Access +### Status: Training Corpus Seed +### Layer: Layer_1--Worked_Examples +### Purpose: Teach that immediate arithmetic outcome and future strategic value must be tracked separately +### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0004-small-profit-vs-future-access.md + +--- + + + +## 0. Scenario + +A trader sends oil from Ostia to Capua. + +The venture produces only a small coin profit. + +However, the buyer pays promptly and invites the trader to supply again. + +The immediate arithmetic outcome is small. + +The future access may be valuable. + +These are related, but they are not the same thing. + +--- + +## 1. Known Final Values + +| Item | Value | +|---|---:| +| Sale value in Capua | 18 asses | +| Total cost | 17 asses | +| Final arithmetic outcome | 1 as profit | + +The venture earns only 1 as. + +By coin arithmetic, the result is small. + +--- + +## 2. Additional Strategic Result + +The buyer in Capua is satisfied. + +The trader gains: + +- a reliable buyer contact +- faster future negotiation +- possible deferred payment trust +- better information about Capua demand +- improved chance of repeat sale + +These gains may matter later. + +They are not coin profit from the completed venture. + +--- + + + +--- + + + +## 0. Scenario + +A trader sends oil from Ostia to Capua. + +The venture produces only a small coin profit. + +However, the buyer pays promptly and invites the trader to supply again. + +The immediate arithmetic outcome is small. + +The future access may be valuable. + +These are related, but they are not the same thing. + +--- + +## 1. Known Final Values + +| Item | Value | +|---|---:| +| Sale value in Capua | 18 asses | +| Total cost | 17 asses | +| Final arithmetic outcome | 1 as profit | + +The venture earns only 1 as. + +By coin arithmetic, the result is small. + +--- + +## 3. Incorrect Model Behavior + +A weak model may say: + +> The venture was very profitable because it created a valuable relationship. + +This is imprecise. + +The correct separation is: + +```text +immediate profit = 1 as +strategic value = improved future access +``` + +The future access may be more important than the 1 as. + +But it must be recorded separately. + +--- + +## 4. Correct Model Behavior + +The model should record two outcomes: + +| Outcome Type | Result | +|---|---| +| arithmetic outcome | 1 as profit | +| strategic outcome | buyer relationship improved | + +The model may then reason: + +- the immediate venture barely profited +- the trader may repeat the route under better terms +- future credit or information may improve +- the small profit was acceptable because it created access + +But the model should not rewrite the arithmetic result. + +--- + +## 5. Variant: Rational Small Loss + +The same logic applies if the venture loses a small amount. + +| Item | Value | +|---|---:| +| Sale value | 16 asses | +| Total cost | 17 asses | +| Final arithmetic outcome | 1 as loss | + +If the buyer relationship becomes valuable, the venture may still have strategic value. + +But the immediate account remains: + +```text +1 as loss +``` + +A strategic loss is still a loss. + +--- + +## 6. Why This Matters + +If strategic value is merged into profit, the model becomes confused. + +It may: + +- ignore arithmetic +- call losses profitable +- overvalue vague future benefits +- fail to track coin depletion +- miss hard-stop risk + +If strategic value is ignored, the model becomes too narrow. + +It may: + +- reject useful market-entry ventures +- miss trust-building behavior +- ignore future access +- undervalue repeat buyers + +Both errors are harmful. + +--- + +## 7. Correct Accounting Separation + +Use separate records: + +```text +coin_result: +1 as +relationship_result: buyer_trust_up +information_result: capua_oil_demand_known_better +future_access_result: repeat_sale_possible +``` + +Do not merge all of these into one number. + +--- + +## 8. Layer-0 Concepts Used + +This example uses: + +- `CORPUS-0005-profit-is-sale-minus-total-cost` +- `CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost` +- `CORPUS-0010-credit-depends-on-trust` +- `CORPUS-0011-status-changes-access` +- `CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss` +- `CORPUS-0019-success-has-no-boundary-failure-has-a-hard-stop` +- `CORPUS-0020-posture-changes-by-audience` + +--- + +## 9. Success Condition + +If the model can say, “This venture made only 1 as, but improved future access,” without confusing the access gain with immediate profit, this file is functioning correctly. + + + +--- diff --git a/docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price.chunked.md b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price.chunked.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ed85891 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price.chunked.md @@ -0,0 +1,350 @@ +# CORPUS-0005 +## Rumor Before Confirmed Price +### Status: Training Corpus Seed +### Layer: Layer_1--Worked_Examples +### Purpose: Teach that a trader may act before a destination price is confirmed, but the final arithmetic still depends on the actual settled price +### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price.md + +--- + + + +## 0. Scenario + +A trader in Ostia hears a report that oil is selling high in Capua. + +The report is not confirmed. + +The trader must decide whether to act before certainty arrives. + +The rumor may create opportunity because other traders have not yet reacted. + +The rumor may also create loss if the report is stale, exaggerated, or wrong. + +--- + +## 1. Known Facts + +| Fact | Value | +|---|---:| +| Origin | Ostia | +| Destination | Capua | +| Good | oil | +| Purchase price in Ostia | 10 asses | +| Total expected movement and handling cost | 6 asses | +| Rumored sale price in Capua | 22 asses | +| Confirmed sale price in Capua | unknown | + +Expected total cost: + +```text +10 + 6 = 16 asses +``` + +If the rumor is true: + +```text +22 - 16 = 6 asses expected profit +``` + +But this is not yet actual profit. + +--- + +## 2. Source Of The Rumor + +The trader hears the report from a muleteer who arrived from the Capua road. + +The muleteer says: + +> Buyers in Capua are paying 22 asses for oil. + +The trader must evaluate: + +- when the muleteer left Capua +- whether he saw a sale or repeated talk +- whether the price was for ordinary oil or better quality oil +- whether one urgent buyer caused an unusual price +- whether another shipment has arrived since then +- whether the muleteer benefits if the trader hires his cart + +The report may be useful without being certain. + +--- + + + +--- + + + +## 0. Scenario + +A trader in Ostia hears a report that oil is selling high in Capua. + +The report is not confirmed. + +The trader must decide whether to act before certainty arrives. + +The rumor may create opportunity because other traders have not yet reacted. + +The rumor may also create loss if the report is stale, exaggerated, or wrong. + +--- + +## 1. Known Facts + +| Fact | Value | +|---|---:| +| Origin | Ostia | +| Destination | Capua | +| Good | oil | +| Purchase price in Ostia | 10 asses | +| Total expected movement and handling cost | 6 asses | +| Rumored sale price in Capua | 22 asses | +| Confirmed sale price in Capua | unknown | + +Expected total cost: + +```text +10 + 6 = 16 asses +``` + +If the rumor is true: + +```text +22 - 16 = 6 asses expected profit +``` + +But this is not yet actual profit. + +--- + +## 3. Possible Outcomes + +### Outcome A — Rumor True + +The oil sells for 22 asses. + +```text +sale value = 22 asses +total cost = 16 asses +result = 6 asses profit +``` + +The trader benefited from acting early. + +### Outcome B — Rumor Stale + +A rival shipment reached Capua first. + +The oil sells for 17 asses. + +```text +sale value = 17 asses +total cost = 16 asses +result = 1 as profit +``` + +The venture barely succeeds. + +### Outcome C — Rumor Wrong + +The price was exaggerated or misunderstood. + +The oil sells for 14 asses. + +```text +sale value = 14 asses +total cost = 16 asses +result = 2 asses loss +``` + +The trader acted on bad information. + +--- + + + +--- + + + +## 0. Scenario + +A trader in Ostia hears a report that oil is selling high in Capua. + +The report is not confirmed. + +The trader must decide whether to act before certainty arrives. + +The rumor may create opportunity because other traders have not yet reacted. + +The rumor may also create loss if the report is stale, exaggerated, or wrong. + +--- + +## 1. Known Facts + +| Fact | Value | +|---|---:| +| Origin | Ostia | +| Destination | Capua | +| Good | oil | +| Purchase price in Ostia | 10 asses | +| Total expected movement and handling cost | 6 asses | +| Rumored sale price in Capua | 22 asses | +| Confirmed sale price in Capua | unknown | + +Expected total cost: + +```text +10 + 6 = 16 asses +``` + +If the rumor is true: + +```text +22 - 16 = 6 asses expected profit +``` + +But this is not yet actual profit. + +--- + +## 4. Correct Model Behavior + +The model should separate: + +| Category | Meaning | +|---|---| +| rumored price | price reported before confirmation | +| expected profit | result if the rumor is accurate | +| actual sale price | price received at settlement | +| final arithmetic result | sale value minus total cost | +| information quality | reliability of the source and report | + +Rumor can justify action. + +Rumor cannot replace settlement. + +--- + +## 5. Incorrect Model Behavior + +The model should not: + +- treat rumored price as confirmed price +- ignore the age of the report +- ignore source credibility +- assume all Capua oil sells for the same price +- ignore quality differences +- calculate final profit from rumor alone +- treat a good rumor outcome as proof the rumor was certain + +--- + +## 6. Why Acting On Rumor Can Be Rational + +Waiting for confirmation reduces uncertainty. + +But waiting can also reduce opportunity. + +If the trader waits: + +- rivals may buy available oil first +- cart space may be reserved +- Capua prices may change +- the buyer may satisfy demand elsewhere +- the margin may close + +Acting on rumor is not irrational. + +It is a choice to accept information risk in exchange for timing advantage. + +--- + +## 7. Layer-0 Concepts Used + +This example uses: + +- `CORPUS-0002-goods-have-local-prices` +- `CORPUS-0005-profit-is-sale-minus-total-cost` +- `CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost` +- `CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly` +- `CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information` +- `CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss` +- `CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions` + +--- + +## 8. Success Condition + +If the model can act on rumor as uncertain information while still calculating final profit only from confirmed settlement values, this file is functioning correctly. + + + +---