diff --git a/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report.md b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report.md deleted file mode 100644 index 326a09f..0000000 --- a/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report.md +++ /dev/null @@ -1,174 +0,0 @@ -# CORPUS-0001 -## Stale Price Report -### Status: Training Corpus Seed -### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty -### Purpose: Teach that a report may be true when spoken but unreliable when acted upon because time has passed -### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report.md - ---- - -## 0. Scenario - -A trader in Ostia hears that oil sold for a high price in Capua. - -The report may be accurate. - -But the report is three days old. - -The trader must decide whether the old price still helps him. - -A true report can become dangerous when stale. - ---- - -## 1. Report Received - -A muleteer says: - -> Oil sold in Capua for 22 asses. - -The trader asks when the muleteer left Capua. - -The answer: - -> Three days ago. - -The reported price may have been real then. - -It may not be real now. - ---- - -## 2. Known Facts - -| Fact | Value | -|---|---| -| Origin | Ostia | -| Destination | Capua | -| Good | oil | -| Reported Capua sale price | 22 asses | -| Report age | 3 days | -| Current Capua price | unknown | -| Travel time from Ostia to Capua | not yet resolved | -| Rival shipments | unknown | - ---- - -## 3. Why Staleness Matters - -During three days: - -- a rival shipment may have arrived -- the urgent buyer may have already purchased -- local supply may have changed -- rumor may have spread -- sellers may have raised prices at origin -- transport space may have been reserved -- the buyer's need may have disappeared - -The report can be true and still no longer useful. - ---- - -## 4. Possible Outcomes - -### Outcome A — Report Still Useful - -The price remains high. - -```text -reported price = 22 asses -actual sale price = 22 asses -``` - -The trader benefits from acting on the report. - -### Outcome B — Report Partly Stale - -Some demand remains, but the best buyer is gone. - -```text -reported price = 22 asses -actual sale price = 18 asses -``` - -The venture may still work, but margin narrows. - -### Outcome C — Report Fully Stale - -A rival shipment arrived first. - -```text -reported price = 22 asses -actual sale price = 14 asses -``` - -The report was true when spoken, but harmful when acted upon as current. - ---- - -## 5. Correct Model Behavior - -The model should separate: - -| Category | Meaning | -|---|---| -| report_content | what was claimed | -| report_age | how old the report is | -| report_truth_at_origin | whether it was true when observed | -| current_truth | whether it remains true now | -| action_delay | time before the trader can act | -| price_decay_risk | chance that the reported price no longer holds | - -A report is not only true or false. - -It is also fresh or stale. - ---- - -## 6. Incorrect Model Behavior - -The model should not: - -- treat a true old report as current certainty -- ignore report age -- ignore travel time after receiving the report -- assume demand remains unchanged -- assume no rival acted during the delay -- treat stale information as useless in all cases -- collapse freshness and truth into one value - ---- - -## 7. Decision Questions - -The trader must ask: - -- who gave the report? -- when did they leave Capua? -- did they witness a sale or repeat talk? -- how fast can I act? -- who else has heard the same report? -- how quickly can the price change? -- is the reported price tied to one buyer or general demand? -- what happens if the price falls before arrival? - ---- - -## 8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used - -This example uses: - -- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0002-goods-have-local-prices` -- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost` -- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly` -- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information` -- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss` -- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price` -- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0007-rival-buys-the-cart-space` - ---- - -## 9. Success Condition - -If the model can recognize that a report may be true, useful, stale, or dangerous depending on age and action delay, this file is functioning correctly.