From 25e06b0e1e206d005a9e54423fac21dce53b4ddd Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: TheRON Date: Thu, 30 Apr 2026 15:07:27 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] obsolete --- .../CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports.md | 182 ------------------ 1 file changed, 182 deletions(-) delete mode 100644 docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports.md diff --git a/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports.md b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports.md deleted file mode 100644 index 6ca8ed6..0000000 --- a/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports.md +++ /dev/null @@ -1,182 +0,0 @@ -# CORPUS-0002 -## Conflicting Reports -### Status: Training Corpus Seed -### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty -### Purpose: Teach that two reports about the same market can disagree, and that disagreement must be evaluated rather than averaged blindly -### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports.md - ---- - -## 0. Scenario - -A trader in Ostia hears two different reports about the price of oil in Capua. - -One report says the price is high. - -Another report says the price has already fallen. - -Both reports may contain some truth. - -The trader must compare source, age, motive, and evidence before acting. - ---- - -## 1. Reports Received - -### Report A - -A muleteer says: - -> Oil sold in Capua for 22 asses. - -Report age: three days. - -### Report B - -A warehouse clerk says: - -> Buyers in Capua are no longer paying more than 16 asses. - -Report age: one day. - -The reports conflict. - -The model must not simply choose the higher number because it creates profit, or the lower number because it seems safer. - ---- - -## 2. Known Facts - -| Fact | Value | -|---|---| -| Origin | Ostia | -| Destination | Capua | -| Good | oil | -| Report A price | 22 asses | -| Report A age | 3 days | -| Report A source | muleteer | -| Report B price | 16 asses | -| Report B age | 1 day | -| Report B source | warehouse clerk | -| Current true price | unknown | - ---- - -## 3. Possible Explanations - -The reports may conflict because: - -- Report A is true but stale -- Report B is newer and more accurate -- Report A was an exceptional sale to one urgent buyer -- Report B reflects lower-quality oil -- one source repeated hearsay -- one source has reason to influence the trader -- both reports are true for different buyers -- price changed between the two reports - -Conflict does not mean one report is worthless. - -It means the trader must identify what each report actually describes. - ---- - -## 4. Incorrect Model Behavior - -The model should not: - -- average the prices without reason -- choose the report that makes the venture profitable -- choose the newest report automatically -- ignore source motive -- ignore quality differences -- assume all buyers in Capua pay one price -- collapse conflicting reports into simple truth/falsehood - ---- - -## 5. Correct Model Behavior - -The model should evaluate: - -| Question | Why It Matters | -|---|---| -| Which report is newer? | newer information may reflect current conditions | -| Which source observed directly? | witnessed sale is stronger than repeated talk | -| Which source has motive? | self-interest may distort report | -| What quality of oil was priced? | different quality may explain different prices | -| Was the price general or exceptional? | one urgent buyer does not define the whole market | -| Has supply changed? | new shipment may lower price | -| Who else has heard the report? | shared knowledge changes opportunity | - ---- - -## 6. Decision Example - -The trader calculates expected cost at 16 asses. - -If Report A is current: - -```text -sale value = 22 asses -total cost = 16 asses -result = 6 asses profit -``` - -If Report B is current: - -```text -sale value = 16 asses -total cost = 16 asses -result = 0 profit -``` - -If the true price has fallen below both reports: - -```text -sale value = 14 asses -total cost = 16 asses -result = 2 asses loss -``` - -The decision depends on confidence, not arithmetic alone. - -Arithmetic resolves the final result after the true sale price is known. - ---- - -## 7. Useful Action Under Conflict - -The trader may: - -- seek a third report -- send a runner -- reduce cargo size -- negotiate a lower purchase price -- reserve cart space conditionally -- wait and risk losing opportunity -- act quickly and accept information risk - -Conflicting reports do not require paralysis. - -They require adjusted commitment. - ---- - -## 8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used - -This example uses: - -- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0002-goods-have-local-prices` -- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly` -- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information` -- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss` -- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0003-arithmetic-resolves-the-venture` -- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price` -- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report` - ---- - -## 9. Success Condition - -If the model sees two conflicting reports and evaluates source, age, motive, quality, and scope before deciding how much confidence to place in either, this file is functioning correctly.