From 2fed18459dc32df22a83d50d85cb78187e3d4f0d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: TheRON Date: Thu, 30 Apr 2026 15:08:07 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] obsolete --- ...008-rumor-changes-behavior-before-truth.md | 201 ------------------ 1 file changed, 201 deletions(-) delete mode 100644 docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0008-rumor-changes-behavior-before-truth.md diff --git a/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0008-rumor-changes-behavior-before-truth.md b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0008-rumor-changes-behavior-before-truth.md deleted file mode 100644 index 7f4b92d..0000000 --- a/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0008-rumor-changes-behavior-before-truth.md +++ /dev/null @@ -1,201 +0,0 @@ -# CORPUS-0008 -## Rumor Changes Behavior Before Truth -### Status: Training Corpus Seed -### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty -### Purpose: Teach that uncertain reports can change prices, queues, posture, and decisions before the underlying truth is confirmed -### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0008-rumor-changes-behavior-before-truth.md - ---- - -## 0. Scenario - -A rumor spreads in Ostia that a forge has burned and tool supply will tighten. - -No official confirmation has arrived. - -The rumor may be true, false, partial, or exaggerated. - -But before anyone confirms the full truth, traders, workers, buyers, and creditors begin acting differently. - -The rumor changes behavior before truth arrives. - ---- - -## 1. Initial Rumor - -A porter says: - -> The bronze forge is ruined. Tools will be dear by nightfall. - -Known facts: - -| Fact | Value | -|---|---| -| Visible smoke | yes | -| Forge damage confirmed | no | -| Tool shortage confirmed | no | -| Rumor spreading | yes | -| Market reaction beginning | possible | - -The rumor is not yet confirmed. - -That does not make it economically irrelevant. - ---- - -## 2. Behavior Changes Before Confirmation - -Before the truth is known: - -- a carpenter buys spare tools early -- a trader reserves cart space for tool cargo -- a creditor visits the forge owner's house -- a rival raises asking prices -- workers gather near the district -- a seller delays sale to see whether price rises -- a buyer accepts worse terms to secure supply - -These actions may occur before confirmed fact. - -Belief itself becomes a market force. - ---- - -## 3. Possible Truth States - -### Truth State A — Rumor Mostly True - -The forge is badly damaged. - -Tool supply will fall. - -Early buyers benefit. - -### Truth State B — Rumor Partial - -Only one shed burned. - -Supply disruption is smaller than expected. - -Some early buyers overpaid. - -### Truth State C — Rumor False Or Misread - -The smoke came from nearby storage, not the forge. - -Tool prices may settle back down. - -Those who acted too aggressively may lose value. - ---- - -## 4. Arithmetic Example - -A trader buys tools for 20 asses after hearing the rumor. - -He expects to sell them for 30 asses if the shortage is real. - -### If Rumor Is True - -```text -sale value = 30 asses -purchase cost = 20 asses -other costs = 4 asses -result = 6 asses profit -``` - -### If Rumor Is Partial - -```text -sale value = 25 asses -purchase cost = 20 asses -other costs = 4 asses -result = 1 as profit -``` - -### If Rumor Is False - -```text -sale value = 18 asses -purchase cost = 20 asses -other costs = 4 asses -result = 6 asses loss -``` - -The rumor created the decision window. - -The truth resolved the outcome. - ---- - -## 5. Correct Model Behavior - -The model should separate: - -| Category | Meaning | -|---|---| -| rumor_content | what is being claimed | -| rumor_spread | how widely it is circulating | -| belief_effect | how actors change behavior | -| true_state | what actually happened | -| market_reaction | price, queue, and access changes caused by belief | -| final_resolution | outcome after truth and settlement | - -Rumor can create real temporary effects even before it is true or false. - ---- - -## 6. Incorrect Model Behavior - -The model should not: - -- ignore rumor until confirmed -- treat rumor as automatically false -- treat rumor as automatically true -- ignore behavior caused by belief -- assume prices wait for truth -- assume all actors react equally -- erase market effects if the rumor later proves false - -False belief can still produce real movement. - ---- - -## 7. Decision Questions - -The trader must ask: - -- who believes the rumor? -- who is already acting? -- what price has moved? -- what queue has formed? -- who is delaying sale? -- who is buying before confirmation? -- what happens if truth arrives late? -- what happens if truth contradicts belief? - -The trader is not only evaluating truth. - -He is evaluating behavior under uncertainty. - ---- - -## 8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used - -This example uses: - -- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost` -- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly` -- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information` -- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss` -- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions` -- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0003-arithmetic-resolves-the-venture` -- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price` -- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0005-hidden-true-state-vs-known-state` -- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0007-acting-before-certainty` - ---- - -## 9. Success Condition - -If the model sees a rumor and asks not only whether it is true, but how belief in it changes behavior before confirmation, this file is functioning correctly.