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-# CORPUS-0013
-## Festival Demand And After-Event Bargains
-### Status: Training Corpus Seed
-### Layer: Layer_1--Worked_Examples
-### Purpose: Teach that predictable gatherings can raise demand before an event and create discounted surplus after the event
-### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0013-festival-demand-and-after-event-bargains.md
-
----
-
-## 0. Scenario
-
-A trader in Ostia learns that a festival or public gathering in Capua will increase demand for food, oil, cheap cloth, drink, lamps, and small comforts.
-
-Before the event, sellers move goods toward Capua because buyers will gather there.
-
-After the event, some sellers may be tired, short of coin, unwilling to pay storage, or eager to move on.
-
-The same event can create two different opportunities:
-
-1. selling into rising demand before the gathering
-2. buying leftover stock after the gathering and moving it to the next place
-
----
-
-## 1. Before The Event
-
-Before the event, demand may rise for:
-
-- food
-- oil
-- wine
-- lamps
-- cloth
-- cheap ornaments
-- animal feed
-- lodging
-- porterage
-- temporary stalls
-- repair work
-
-A trader may send goods early to sell into higher demand.
-
-Example:
-
-```text
-purchase value in Ostia = 20 asses
-transport and handling = 6 asses
-expected sale value in Capua before festival = 34 asses
-expected result = 8 asses profit
-```
-
-The profit depends on arriving before the demand peak is satisfied.
-
----
-
-## 2. During The Event
-
-During the event:
-
-- prices may rise for urgent goods
-- porterage may become expensive
-- lodging may tighten
-- carts may be unavailable
-- buyers may pay more for convenience
-- sellers may run out of stock
-- officials or local organizers may restrict certain spaces
-
-The trader may profit if positioned early.
-
-But late arrival can be costly.
-
----
-
-## 3. After The Event
-
-After the event, unsold goods may become discounted.
-
-Sellers may want to avoid:
-
-- storage cost
-- return transport
-- spoilage
-- breakage
-- fatigue
-- tied-up capital
-- missed next market
-
-A trader with available coin, storage, or transport may buy leftover goods below ordinary value.
-
-Example:
-
-```text
-leftover goods bought after event = 18 asses
-handling and storage = 4 asses
-transport to next location = 5 asses
-expected sale value elsewhere = 34 asses
-expected result = 7 asses profit
-```
-
-The bargain exists because the seller faces post-event pressure.
-
----
-
-## 4. Incorrect Model Behavior
-
-The model should not:
-
-- treat festival demand as random
-- ignore predictable timing
-- assume high demand lasts forever
-- assume leftovers are worthless
-- ignore post-event seller pressure
-- ignore transport scarcity before the event
-- ignore storage pressure after the event
-- treat every after-event bargain as automatically safe
-
-The event creates a cycle, not a single price change.
-
----
-
-## 5. Correct Model Behavior
-
-The model should separate:
-
-| Stage | Market Condition |
-|---|---|
-| before event | rising demand, transport competition |
-| during event | high urgency, crowded access, price volatility |
-| after event | surplus, fatigue, storage pressure, discounted stock |
-| next location | possible resale if demand remains unmet elsewhere |
-
-The trader must identify where in the cycle he is acting.
-
----
-
-## 6. Risk Variants
-
-### Variant A — Arrives Early
-
-The trader reaches Capua before the event.
-
-```text
-sale value = 34 asses
-total cost = 26 asses
-result = 8 asses profit
-```
-
-### Variant B — Arrives Late
-
-Other sellers satisfy demand first.
-
-```text
-sale value = 27 asses
-total cost = 26 asses
-result = 1 as profit
-```
-
-### Variant C — Buys Leftovers Poorly
-
-The trader buys leftover goods, but they are damaged or unsuitable for the next location.
-
-```text
-sale value = 24 asses
-total cost = 27 asses
-result = 3 asses loss
-```
-
-### Variant D — Buys Leftovers Well
-
-The trader buys sound leftovers from tired sellers and moves them to another event location.
-
-```text
-sale value = 34 asses
-total cost = 27 asses
-result = 7 asses profit
-```
-
----
-
-## 7. Timing Questions
-
-The trader must ask:
-
-- when does the event begin?
-- when does demand peak?
-- when do sellers arrive?
-- when do buyers depart?
-- which goods spoil or lose value quickly?
-- which goods remain useful after the event?
-- is transport available after the crowd leaves?
-- where is the next demand location?
-
-The event calendar is an economic map.
-
----
-
-## 8. Non-Coin Settlement Variant
-
-After the event, a seller may accept mixed settlement:
-
-- some coin now
-- help moving goods
-- storage for one night
-- a share of resale
-- goods exchanged for transport
-- future priority at the next gathering
-
-The trader should track obligations, not only coin.
-
----
-
-## 9. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used
-
-This example uses:
-
-- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0002-goods-have-local-prices`
-- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0004-cost-includes-more-than-purchase-price`
-- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0005-profit-is-sale-minus-total-cost`
-- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost`
-- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss`
-- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0013-non-coin-settlement-exists`
-- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0016-opportunistic-bargains-come-from-pressure`
-- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions`
-- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0003-arithmetic-resolves-the-venture`
-- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0007-rival-buys-the-cart-space`
-
----
-
-## 10. Success Condition
-
-If the model sees a festival or public gathering and asks how demand, transport, storage, leftovers, and next-location resale change before, during, and after the event, this file is functioning correctly.