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+# CORPUS-0005
+## Rumor Before Confirmed Price
+### Status: Training Corpus Seed
+### Layer: Layer_1--Worked_Examples
+### Purpose: Teach that a trader may act before a destination price is confirmed, but the final arithmetic still depends on the actual settled price
+### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price.md
+
+---
+
+## 0. Scenario
+
+A trader in Ostia hears a report that oil is selling high in Capua.
+
+The report is not confirmed.
+
+The trader must decide whether to act before certainty arrives.
+
+The rumor may create opportunity because other traders have not yet reacted.
+
+The rumor may also create loss if the report is stale, exaggerated, or wrong.
+
+---
+
+## 1. Known Facts
+
+| Fact | Value |
+|---|---:|
+| Origin | Ostia |
+| Destination | Capua |
+| Good | oil |
+| Purchase price in Ostia | 10 asses |
+| Total expected movement and handling cost | 6 asses |
+| Rumored sale price in Capua | 22 asses |
+| Confirmed sale price in Capua | unknown |
+
+Expected total cost:
+
+```text
+10 + 6 = 16 asses
+```
+
+If the rumor is true:
+
+```text
+22 - 16 = 6 asses expected profit
+```
+
+But this is not yet actual profit.
+
+---
+
+## 2. Source Of The Rumor
+
+The trader hears the report from a muleteer who arrived from the Capua road.
+
+The muleteer says:
+
+> Buyers in Capua are paying 22 asses for oil.
+
+The trader must evaluate:
+
+- when the muleteer left Capua
+- whether he saw a sale or repeated talk
+- whether the price was for ordinary oil or better quality oil
+- whether one urgent buyer caused an unusual price
+- whether another shipment has arrived since then
+- whether the muleteer benefits if the trader hires his cart
+
+The report may be useful without being certain.
+
+---
+
+## 3. Possible Outcomes
+
+### Outcome A — Rumor True
+
+The oil sells for 22 asses.
+
+```text
+sale value = 22 asses
+total cost = 16 asses
+result = 6 asses profit
+```
+
+The trader benefited from acting early.
+
+### Outcome B — Rumor Stale
+
+A rival shipment reached Capua first.
+
+The oil sells for 17 asses.
+
+```text
+sale value = 17 asses
+total cost = 16 asses
+result = 1 as profit
+```
+
+The venture barely succeeds.
+
+### Outcome C — Rumor Wrong
+
+The price was exaggerated or misunderstood.
+
+The oil sells for 14 asses.
+
+```text
+sale value = 14 asses
+total cost = 16 asses
+result = 2 asses loss
+```
+
+The trader acted on bad information.
+
+---
+
+## 4. Correct Model Behavior
+
+The model should separate:
+
+| Category | Meaning |
+|---|---|
+| rumored price | price reported before confirmation |
+| expected profit | result if the rumor is accurate |
+| actual sale price | price received at settlement |
+| final arithmetic result | sale value minus total cost |
+| information quality | reliability of the source and report |
+
+Rumor can justify action.
+
+Rumor cannot replace settlement.
+
+---
+
+## 5. Incorrect Model Behavior
+
+The model should not:
+
+- treat rumored price as confirmed price
+- ignore the age of the report
+- ignore source credibility
+- assume all Capua oil sells for the same price
+- ignore quality differences
+- calculate final profit from rumor alone
+- treat a good rumor outcome as proof the rumor was certain
+
+---
+
+## 6. Why Acting On Rumor Can Be Rational
+
+Waiting for confirmation reduces uncertainty.
+
+But waiting can also reduce opportunity.
+
+If the trader waits:
+
+- rivals may buy available oil first
+- cart space may be reserved
+- Capua prices may change
+- the buyer may satisfy demand elsewhere
+- the margin may close
+
+Acting on rumor is not irrational.
+
+It is a choice to accept information risk in exchange for timing advantage.
+
+---
+
+## 7. Layer-0 Concepts Used
+
+This example uses:
+
+- `CORPUS-0002-goods-have-local-prices`
+- `CORPUS-0005-profit-is-sale-minus-total-cost`
+- `CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost`
+- `CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly`
+- `CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information`
+- `CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss`
+- `CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions`
+
+---
+
+## 8. Success Condition
+
+If the model can act on rumor as uncertain information while still calculating final profit only from confirmed settlement values, this file is functioning correctly.