From 442c354af0975c970cacb76298fffbae414f87ae Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: TheRON Date: Thu, 30 Apr 2026 15:11:16 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] obsolete --- ...ORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price.md | 185 ------------------ 1 file changed, 185 deletions(-) delete mode 100644 docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price.md diff --git a/docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price.md b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price.md deleted file mode 100644 index d13f152..0000000 --- a/docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price.md +++ /dev/null @@ -1,185 +0,0 @@ -# CORPUS-0005 -## Rumor Before Confirmed Price -### Status: Training Corpus Seed -### Layer: Layer_1--Worked_Examples -### Purpose: Teach that a trader may act before a destination price is confirmed, but the final arithmetic still depends on the actual settled price -### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price.md - ---- - -## 0. Scenario - -A trader in Ostia hears a report that oil is selling high in Capua. - -The report is not confirmed. - -The trader must decide whether to act before certainty arrives. - -The rumor may create opportunity because other traders have not yet reacted. - -The rumor may also create loss if the report is stale, exaggerated, or wrong. - ---- - -## 1. Known Facts - -| Fact | Value | -|---|---:| -| Origin | Ostia | -| Destination | Capua | -| Good | oil | -| Purchase price in Ostia | 10 asses | -| Total expected movement and handling cost | 6 asses | -| Rumored sale price in Capua | 22 asses | -| Confirmed sale price in Capua | unknown | - -Expected total cost: - -```text -10 + 6 = 16 asses -``` - -If the rumor is true: - -```text -22 - 16 = 6 asses expected profit -``` - -But this is not yet actual profit. - ---- - -## 2. Source Of The Rumor - -The trader hears the report from a muleteer who arrived from the Capua road. - -The muleteer says: - -> Buyers in Capua are paying 22 asses for oil. - -The trader must evaluate: - -- when the muleteer left Capua -- whether he saw a sale or repeated talk -- whether the price was for ordinary oil or better quality oil -- whether one urgent buyer caused an unusual price -- whether another shipment has arrived since then -- whether the muleteer benefits if the trader hires his cart - -The report may be useful without being certain. - ---- - -## 3. Possible Outcomes - -### Outcome A — Rumor True - -The oil sells for 22 asses. - -```text -sale value = 22 asses -total cost = 16 asses -result = 6 asses profit -``` - -The trader benefited from acting early. - -### Outcome B — Rumor Stale - -A rival shipment reached Capua first. - -The oil sells for 17 asses. - -```text -sale value = 17 asses -total cost = 16 asses -result = 1 as profit -``` - -The venture barely succeeds. - -### Outcome C — Rumor Wrong - -The price was exaggerated or misunderstood. - -The oil sells for 14 asses. - -```text -sale value = 14 asses -total cost = 16 asses -result = 2 asses loss -``` - -The trader acted on bad information. - ---- - -## 4. Correct Model Behavior - -The model should separate: - -| Category | Meaning | -|---|---| -| rumored price | price reported before confirmation | -| expected profit | result if the rumor is accurate | -| actual sale price | price received at settlement | -| final arithmetic result | sale value minus total cost | -| information quality | reliability of the source and report | - -Rumor can justify action. - -Rumor cannot replace settlement. - ---- - -## 5. Incorrect Model Behavior - -The model should not: - -- treat rumored price as confirmed price -- ignore the age of the report -- ignore source credibility -- assume all Capua oil sells for the same price -- ignore quality differences -- calculate final profit from rumor alone -- treat a good rumor outcome as proof the rumor was certain - ---- - -## 6. Why Acting On Rumor Can Be Rational - -Waiting for confirmation reduces uncertainty. - -But waiting can also reduce opportunity. - -If the trader waits: - -- rivals may buy available oil first -- cart space may be reserved -- Capua prices may change -- the buyer may satisfy demand elsewhere -- the margin may close - -Acting on rumor is not irrational. - -It is a choice to accept information risk in exchange for timing advantage. - ---- - -## 7. Layer-0 Concepts Used - -This example uses: - -- `CORPUS-0002-goods-have-local-prices` -- `CORPUS-0005-profit-is-sale-minus-total-cost` -- `CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost` -- `CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly` -- `CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information` -- `CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss` -- `CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions` - ---- - -## 8. Success Condition - -If the model can act on rumor as uncertain information while still calculating final profit only from confirmed settlement values, this file is functioning correctly.