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docs/economy/RUMOR-SYSTEM-0001.md
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docs/economy/RUMOR-SYSTEM-0001.md
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# RUMOR-SYSTEM-0001
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## Rumor, Information Delay, and Informal Markets
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### Status: Canonical Economy Seed
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### Layer: OTIVM (Roman Merchant)
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### Purpose: Define how uncertain information moves through the city, alters prices, creates opportunity, and misleads actors
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### Repository Path: docs/economy/RUMOR-SYSTEM-0001.md
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---
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## 0. Design Intent
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Markets do not wait for certainty.
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Most economic decisions are made before facts are known. Men act on smoke, absences, raised voices, late carts, unusual purchases, and guarded expressions.
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This document prevents a false simulation where all actors receive perfect information at the same time.
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In OTIVM:
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- rumor is an economic input
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- ignorance has geography
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- truth arrives unevenly
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- reputation alters belief
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- opportunity often exists only during confusion
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---
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## 1. Definition of Rumor
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Rumor is not merely falsehood.
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Rumor is socially transmitted, incomplete information with uncertain accuracy.
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It may be true, partly true, outdated, intentionally distorted, a misinterpreted signal, or speculation mistaken for fact.
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A rumor can move markets even when false.
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---
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## 2. Why Rumor Matters Economically
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Before official confirmation:
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- prices move
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- buyers hesitate
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- lenders tighten terms
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- hoarding begins
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- labour shifts districts
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- transport reroutes
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- opportunists buy quietly
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The first reaction is often based on rumor, not truth.
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---
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## 3. Primary Sources of Rumor in Ostia
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| Source Node | Typical Information |
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|---|---|
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| BALNEA | status shifts, meetings, disputes, political whispers |
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| riverfront | arriving cargo, delays, losses, foreign news |
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| HORREA | shortages, inventory pressure, distress selling |
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| workshops | fires, wages, tool scarcity, output decline |
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| taverns / cauponae | labour news, theft, street violence |
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| legal forum | debts, seizures, petitions, enforcement |
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| stables / yards | cart shortages, route condition, mule health |
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| households / servants | private affairs entering public speech |
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No source is perfectly reliable.
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---
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## 4. Information Classes
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| Class | Meaning |
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|---|---|
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| signal | directly observed fact, such as visible smoke |
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| report | witness says event occurred |
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| inference | likely consequence guessed from fact |
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| embellishment | dramatic additions |
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| agenda_rumor | shaped to benefit speaker |
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| denial | false minimization or concealment |
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Example:
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Smoke over forge = signal.
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“The owner fled with debts” = rumor.
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---
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## 5. Core Parameters
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| Token | Type | Meaning |
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|---|---|---|
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| rumor_velocity | city | speed of spread |
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| rumor_accuracy | scenario | closeness to truth |
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| source_credibility | actor/relation | trustworthiness of speaker |
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| information_delay | relation | days before actor hears usable news |
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| distortion_rate | city | tendency of message to mutate |
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| market_sensitivity | city/good | how quickly prices react |
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| speech_weight | actor | how strongly others believe speaker |
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| secrecy_pressure | scenario | incentives to hide truth |
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---
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## 6. Speech Weight
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Not all voices carry equally.
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A claim from a respected man may outweigh three correct claims from porters.
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Speech weight affected by:
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- AVCTORITAS
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- FAMA
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- office held
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- wealth display
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- proven past accuracy
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- group prejudice
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- confidence of delivery
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Thus:
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A freedman may know first.
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A noble may be believed first.
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---
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## 7. Information Delay
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Truth moves through time.
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Example: Capua timber fire.
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| Actor | Delay |
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|---|---|
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| contractor courier | 1–2 days |
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| connected merchant | 2–4 days |
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| ordinary market trader | 3–6 days |
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| distant rural buyer | longer |
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The actor with shorter delay can profit.
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---
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## 8. Distortion Mechanics
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As stories move, they mutate.
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```text
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distance ↑ -> distortion ↑
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retellings ↑ -> distortion ↑
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panic ↑ -> distortion ↑
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political_interest ↑ -> distortion ↑
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trusted_witness_present -> distortion ↓
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multiple_independent_reports -> distortion ↓
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```
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Example:
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Small warehouse fire becomes “entire district lost.”
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---
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## 9. Price Reaction Model
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```text
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price_change =
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scarcity_expectation
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+ fear
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+ hoarding
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+ transport_uncertainty
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- trusted_reassurance
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- visible_replacement_supply
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```
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Meaning:
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Even false rumors can raise prices if believed long enough.
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---
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## 10. Merchant Use Cases
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### 10.1 Good Use
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Actor asks:
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- what is certainly known?
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- who benefits from this story?
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- what second-order shortage follows?
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- who has independent confirmation?
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- how long before truth spreads?
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### 10.2 Bad Use
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Actor asks only:
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- is it true?
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This is too narrow. Even false rumors can create real temporary opportunity.
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---
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## 11. Example: Bronze Forge Fire
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### Immediate Known Signal
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Smoke visible.
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### Rumors Within Hours
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- bronze forge destroyed
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- owner insolvent
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- sabotage by iron interests
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- workers dead
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- stock saved secretly
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- magistrate forcing sale
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### Rational Merchant Questions
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- tool supply reduced?
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- rebuild timber demand rising?
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- creditors exposed?
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- iron substitute demand imminent?
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- who knows the stock survived?
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---
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## 12. Example Dialogue Logic
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> “I heard the forge burned.”
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Low value statement.
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> “I saw smoke, three collapsed beams, and carts removing molds.”
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High value statement.
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> “I sold nails before noon.”
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Highest value statement — reveals belief through action.
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---
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## 13. Roman Land and Physical Detail in Rumor
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Rumor often uses concrete measures.
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Use Roman units:
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- IUGERUM (land area)
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- PASSUS (distance)
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- LIBRA (weight)
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- MODIVS (dry measure)
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Example:
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> “They mean to plant six iugera behind the forge for shaft wood.”
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This is stronger than vague speech.
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Specificity increases believability, even when false.
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---
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## 14. Social Filtering by Background
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| Background | Hears Best |
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|---|---|
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| Former Legionary | movement disruption, guard failures |
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| Freedman Trader | distress selling, salvage, street truth |
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| Noble Younger Son | family scandal, patron moves |
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| Failed Magistrate | debts, permits, seizures |
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| Camp Logistician | shortages, carts, labour demand |
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| Guild Scribe | insolvency, collateral, unpaid accounts |
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Same city, different information worlds.
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---
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## 15. Simulation Rules
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### Do Not Give Perfect Knowledge
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Actors should infer, not receive certainty.
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### Do Not Make Rumor Pure Randomness
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Rumor must emerge from actual events, incentives, and networks.
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### Do Not Make Truth Instantly Win
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Falsehood can dominate briefly.
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### Reward Verification
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Independent confirmation should create advantage.
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---
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## 16. Relations
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```text
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rumor_velocity ↑ -> price_adjustment_speed ↑
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distortion_rate ↑ -> false_opportunity ↑
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information_delay ↓ -> merchant_edge ↑
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speech_weight ↑ -> market_reaction ↑
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multiple_sources_confirm ↑ -> rumor_accuracy ↑
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panic ↑ -> hoarding ↑
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```
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---
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## 17. Repository Use
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Internal simulation substrate. Not player-facing prose.
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Use to support:
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- prologue BALNEA dialogue
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- city event reactions
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- price shocks
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- hidden information systems
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- actor asymmetry
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- scenario chaining
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- merchant skill differentiation
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---
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## 18. Canonical Success Condition
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If the participant stops asking:
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“Is the rumor true?”
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and starts asking:
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“Who heard it first, who profits if believed, and what changes before certainty arrives?”
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then this document is functioning correctly.
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