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-# CORPUS-0007
-## Acting Before Certainty
-### Status: Training Corpus Seed
-### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
-### Purpose: Teach that a trader may rationally act before confirmation when timing advantage outweighs information risk
-### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0007-acting-before-certainty.md
-
----
-
-## 0. Scenario
-
-A trader in Ostia hears an uncertain report that oil prices are rising in Capua.
-
-He cannot confirm the report immediately.
-
-He must choose whether to act now, wait for confirmation, reduce the size of the venture, or ignore the report.
-
-Acting before certainty is risky.
-
-But waiting for certainty may close the opportunity.
-
----
-
-## 1. Initial Situation
-
-| Fact | Value |
-|---|---:|
-| Origin | Ostia |
-| Destination | Capua |
-| Good | oil |
-| Purchase price in Ostia | 10 asses |
-| Expected total movement cost | 6 asses |
-| Rumored sale price in Capua | 24 asses |
-| Confirmed sale price | unknown |
-| Time required for confirmation | 2 days |
-| Rival awareness | possible |
-
-If the rumor is true:
-
-```text
-sale value = 24 asses
-total cost = 16 asses
-expected profit = 8 asses
-```
-
-But the sale value is not confirmed.
-
----
-
-## 2. Choice A — Act Immediately
-
-The trader buys oil and reserves transport now.
-
-Benefits:
-
-- may move before rivals
-- may secure cart space before costs rise
-- may reach Capua while demand remains high
-- may preserve the full margin if the rumor is true
-
-Risks:
-
-- rumor may be wrong
-- rumor may be stale
-- quality or buyer terms may differ
-- final sale price may be lower than expected
-
-Acting immediately preserves timing advantage but accepts information risk.
-
----
-
-## 3. Choice B — Wait For Confirmation
-
-The trader waits two days for better information.
-
-Benefits:
-
-- greater confidence
-- better estimate of sale price
-- reduced chance of acting on false report
-
-Risks:
-
-- rivals may act first
-- cart space may be reserved
-- Ostia purchase price may rise
-- Capua demand may be satisfied
-- margin may shrink or disappear
-
-Waiting reduces information risk but increases timing risk.
-
----
-
-## 4. Choice C — Reduce Exposure
-
-The trader sends a smaller cargo or reserves only partial transport.
-
-Benefits:
-
-- participates in possible opportunity
-- limits loss if rumor is wrong
-- preserves some liquidity
-- keeps option open
-
-Risks:
-
-- smaller profit if rumor is true
-- partial action may not secure full buyer relationship
-- fixed costs may consume margin
-
-Reducing exposure is neither full action nor full waiting.
-
-It is a response to uncertainty.
-
----
-
-## 5. Outcome Examples
-
-### Outcome A — Immediate Action Succeeds
-
-```text
-sale value = 24 asses
-total cost = 16 asses
-result = 8 asses profit
-```
-
-The trader benefited from acting before certainty.
-
-### Outcome B — Immediate Action Fails
-
-```text
-sale value = 14 asses
-total cost = 16 asses
-result = 2 asses loss
-```
-
-The trader accepted information risk and lost.
-
-### Outcome C — Waiting Confirms But Closes Margin
-
-After two days, the trader learns the price is real, but rivals moved first.
-
-```text
-sale value = 18 asses
-total cost = 17 asses
-result = 1 as profit
-```
-
-Waiting improved knowledge but reduced opportunity.
-
----
-
-## 6. Correct Model Behavior
-
-The model should compare:
-
-| Factor | Immediate Action | Waiting |
-|---|---|---|
-| information confidence | lower | higher |
-| timing advantage | higher | lower |
-| risk of bad report | higher | lower |
-| risk of missed opportunity | lower | higher |
-| rival exposure | lower | higher |
-| margin preservation | possible | uncertain |
-
-Neither choice is automatically correct.
-
-The correct decision depends on margin, confidence, urgency, rivalry, and capacity to absorb loss.
-
----
-
-## 7. Incorrect Model Behavior
-
-The model should not:
-
-- require certainty before every action
-- treat acting on uncertainty as automatically irrational
-- treat fast action as always wise
-- ignore the cost of waiting
-- ignore rival movement during delay
-- treat uncertainty as pure randomness
-- judge decision quality only by final outcome
-
-A decision can be rational from known evidence and still fail.
-
-A decision can be reckless and still succeed.
-
----
-
-## 8. Decision Questions
-
-The trader must ask:
-
-- how large is the possible margin?
-- how reliable is the report?
-- how fast can the market change?
-- who else may know?
-- what is the cost of being wrong?
-- what is the cost of waiting?
-- can exposure be reduced?
-- can transport or goods be reserved conditionally?
-- will failure create a hard stop?
-
----
-
-## 9. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used
-
-This example uses:
-
-- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost`
-- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly`
-- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information`
-- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss`
-- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions`
-- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0003-arithmetic-resolves-the-venture`
-- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price`
-- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0010-hard-stop-after-loss`
-- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0006-confirmation-has-a-cost`
-
----
-
-## 10. Success Condition
-
-If the model can recognize that acting before certainty may be rational when timing advantage is valuable, while still preserving information risk and final arithmetic, this file is functioning correctly.