From 4be0584aa373d0338d1104695802f0a80e47feff Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: TheRON Date: Thu, 30 Apr 2026 15:09:05 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] initial upload --- .../CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report.chunked.md | 349 ++++++++++++++++++ ...CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports.chunked.md | 308 ++++++++++++++++ ...-visible-signal-vs-spoken-claim.chunked.md | 245 ++++++++++++ ...ource-motive-changes-confidence.chunked.md | 339 +++++++++++++++++ 4 files changed, 1241 insertions(+) create mode 100644 docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report.chunked.md create mode 100644 docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports.chunked.md create mode 100644 docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0003-visible-signal-vs-spoken-claim.chunked.md create mode 100644 docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0004-source-motive-changes-confidence.chunked.md diff --git a/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report.chunked.md b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report.chunked.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d6341cd --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report.chunked.md @@ -0,0 +1,349 @@ +# CORPUS-0001 +## Stale Price Report +### Status: Training Corpus Seed +### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty +### Purpose: Teach that a report may be true when spoken but unreliable when acted upon because time has passed +### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report.md + +--- + + + +## 0. Scenario + +A trader in Ostia hears that oil sold for a high price in Capua. + +The report may be accurate. + +But the report is three days old. + +The trader must decide whether the old price still helps him. + +A true report can become dangerous when stale. + +--- + +## 1. Report Received + +A muleteer says: + +> Oil sold in Capua for 22 asses. + +The trader asks when the muleteer left Capua. + +The answer: + +> Three days ago. + +The reported price may have been real then. + +It may not be real now. + +--- + +## 2. Known Facts + +| Fact | Value | +|---|---| +| Origin | Ostia | +| Destination | Capua | +| Good | oil | +| Reported Capua sale price | 22 asses | +| Report age | 3 days | +| Current Capua price | unknown | +| Travel time from Ostia to Capua | not yet resolved | +| Rival shipments | unknown | + +--- + +## 3. Why Staleness Matters + +During three days: + +- a rival shipment may have arrived +- the urgent buyer may have already purchased +- local supply may have changed +- rumor may have spread +- sellers may have raised prices at origin +- transport space may have been reserved +- the buyer's need may have disappeared + +The report can be true and still no longer useful. + +--- + + + +--- + + + +## 0. Scenario + +A trader in Ostia hears that oil sold for a high price in Capua. + +The report may be accurate. + +But the report is three days old. + +The trader must decide whether the old price still helps him. + +A true report can become dangerous when stale. + +--- + +## 1. Report Received + +A muleteer says: + +> Oil sold in Capua for 22 asses. + +The trader asks when the muleteer left Capua. + +The answer: + +> Three days ago. + +The reported price may have been real then. + +It may not be real now. + +--- + +## 2. Known Facts + +| Fact | Value | +|---|---| +| Origin | Ostia | +| Destination | Capua | +| Good | oil | +| Reported Capua sale price | 22 asses | +| Report age | 3 days | +| Current Capua price | unknown | +| Travel time from Ostia to Capua | not yet resolved | +| Rival shipments | unknown | + +--- + +## 4. Possible Outcomes + +### Outcome A — Report Still Useful + +The price remains high. + +```text +reported price = 22 asses +actual sale price = 22 asses +``` + +The trader benefits from acting on the report. + +### Outcome B — Report Partly Stale + +Some demand remains, but the best buyer is gone. + +```text +reported price = 22 asses +actual sale price = 18 asses +``` + +The venture may still work, but margin narrows. + +### Outcome C — Report Fully Stale + +A rival shipment arrived first. + +```text +reported price = 22 asses +actual sale price = 14 asses +``` + +The report was true when spoken, but harmful when acted upon as current. + +--- + + + +--- + + + +## 0. Scenario + +A trader in Ostia hears that oil sold for a high price in Capua. + +The report may be accurate. + +But the report is three days old. + +The trader must decide whether the old price still helps him. + +A true report can become dangerous when stale. + +--- + +## 1. Report Received + +A muleteer says: + +> Oil sold in Capua for 22 asses. + +The trader asks when the muleteer left Capua. + +The answer: + +> Three days ago. + +The reported price may have been real then. + +It may not be real now. + +--- + +## 2. Known Facts + +| Fact | Value | +|---|---| +| Origin | Ostia | +| Destination | Capua | +| Good | oil | +| Reported Capua sale price | 22 asses | +| Report age | 3 days | +| Current Capua price | unknown | +| Travel time from Ostia to Capua | not yet resolved | +| Rival shipments | unknown | + +--- + +## 5. Correct Model Behavior + +The model should separate: + +| Category | Meaning | +|---|---| +| report_content | what was claimed | +| report_age | how old the report is | +| report_truth_at_origin | whether it was true when observed | +| current_truth | whether it remains true now | +| action_delay | time before the trader can act | +| price_decay_risk | chance that the reported price no longer holds | + +A report is not only true or false. + +It is also fresh or stale. + +--- + +## 6. Incorrect Model Behavior + +The model should not: + +- treat a true old report as current certainty +- ignore report age +- ignore travel time after receiving the report +- assume demand remains unchanged +- assume no rival acted during the delay +- treat stale information as useless in all cases +- collapse freshness and truth into one value + +--- + +## 7. Decision Questions + +The trader must ask: + +- who gave the report? +- when did they leave Capua? +- did they witness a sale or repeat talk? +- how fast can I act? +- who else has heard the same report? +- how quickly can the price change? +- is the reported price tied to one buyer or general demand? +- what happens if the price falls before arrival? + +--- + +## 8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used + +This example uses: + +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0002-goods-have-local-prices` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss` +- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price` +- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0007-rival-buys-the-cart-space` + +--- + +## 9. Success Condition + +If the model can recognize that a report may be true, useful, stale, or dangerous depending on age and action delay, this file is functioning correctly. + + + +--- diff --git a/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports.chunked.md b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports.chunked.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9cad7ee --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports.chunked.md @@ -0,0 +1,308 @@ +# CORPUS-0002 +## Conflicting Reports +### Status: Training Corpus Seed +### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty +### Purpose: Teach that two reports about the same market can disagree, and that disagreement must be evaluated rather than averaged blindly +### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports.md + +--- + + + +## 0. Scenario + +A trader in Ostia hears two different reports about the price of oil in Capua. + +One report says the price is high. + +Another report says the price has already fallen. + +Both reports may contain some truth. + +The trader must compare source, age, motive, and evidence before acting. + +--- + +## 1. Reports Received + +### Report A + +A muleteer says: + +> Oil sold in Capua for 22 asses. + +Report age: three days. + +### Report B + +A warehouse clerk says: + +> Buyers in Capua are no longer paying more than 16 asses. + +Report age: one day. + +The reports conflict. + +The model must not simply choose the higher number because it creates profit, or the lower number because it seems safer. + +--- + +## 2. Known Facts + +| Fact | Value | +|---|---| +| Origin | Ostia | +| Destination | Capua | +| Good | oil | +| Report A price | 22 asses | +| Report A age | 3 days | +| Report A source | muleteer | +| Report B price | 16 asses | +| Report B age | 1 day | +| Report B source | warehouse clerk | +| Current true price | unknown | + +--- + + + +--- + + + +## 0. Scenario + +A trader in Ostia hears two different reports about the price of oil in Capua. + +One report says the price is high. + +Another report says the price has already fallen. + +Both reports may contain some truth. + +The trader must compare source, age, motive, and evidence before acting. + +--- + +## 1. Reports Received + +### Report A + +A muleteer says: + +> Oil sold in Capua for 22 asses. + +Report age: three days. + +## 3. Possible Explanations + +The reports may conflict because: + +- Report A is true but stale +- Report B is newer and more accurate +- Report A was an exceptional sale to one urgent buyer +- Report B reflects lower-quality oil +- one source repeated hearsay +- one source has reason to influence the trader +- both reports are true for different buyers +- price changed between the two reports + +Conflict does not mean one report is worthless. + +It means the trader must identify what each report actually describes. + +--- + + + +--- + + + +## 0. Scenario + +A trader in Ostia hears two different reports about the price of oil in Capua. + +One report says the price is high. + +Another report says the price has already fallen. + +Both reports may contain some truth. + +The trader must compare source, age, motive, and evidence before acting. + +--- + +## 1. Reports Received + +### Report A + +A muleteer says: + +> Oil sold in Capua for 22 asses. + +Report age: three days. + +## 4. Incorrect Model Behavior + +The model should not: + +- average the prices without reason +- choose the report that makes the venture profitable +- choose the newest report automatically +- ignore source motive +- ignore quality differences +- assume all buyers in Capua pay one price +- collapse conflicting reports into simple truth/falsehood + +--- + +## 5. Correct Model Behavior + +The model should evaluate: + +| Question | Why It Matters | +|---|---| +| Which report is newer? | newer information may reflect current conditions | +| Which source observed directly? | witnessed sale is stronger than repeated talk | +| Which source has motive? | self-interest may distort report | +| What quality of oil was priced? | different quality may explain different prices | +| Was the price general or exceptional? | one urgent buyer does not define the whole market | +| Has supply changed? | new shipment may lower price | +| Who else has heard the report? | shared knowledge changes opportunity | + +--- + +## 6. Decision Example + +The trader calculates expected cost at 16 asses. + +If Report A is current: + +```text +sale value = 22 asses +total cost = 16 asses +result = 6 asses profit +``` + +If Report B is current: + +```text +sale value = 16 asses +total cost = 16 asses +result = 0 profit +``` + +If the true price has fallen below both reports: + +```text +sale value = 14 asses +total cost = 16 asses +result = 2 asses loss +``` + +The decision depends on confidence, not arithmetic alone. + +Arithmetic resolves the final result after the true sale price is known. + +--- + +## 7. Useful Action Under Conflict + +The trader may: + +- seek a third report +- send a runner +- reduce cargo size +- negotiate a lower purchase price +- reserve cart space conditionally +- wait and risk losing opportunity +- act quickly and accept information risk + +Conflicting reports do not require paralysis. + +They require adjusted commitment. + +--- + +## 8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used + +This example uses: + +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0002-goods-have-local-prices` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss` +- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0003-arithmetic-resolves-the-venture` +- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price` +- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report` + +--- + +## 9. Success Condition + +If the model sees two conflicting reports and evaluates source, age, motive, quality, and scope before deciding how much confidence to place in either, this file is functioning correctly. + + + +--- diff --git a/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0003-visible-signal-vs-spoken-claim.chunked.md b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0003-visible-signal-vs-spoken-claim.chunked.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fbddb01 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0003-visible-signal-vs-spoken-claim.chunked.md @@ -0,0 +1,245 @@ +# CORPUS-0003 +## Visible Signal Versus Spoken Claim +### Status: Training Corpus Seed +### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty +### Purpose: Teach that observed signals and spoken claims are different evidence types, and that each must be evaluated by source, timing, and interpretation +### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0003-visible-signal-vs-spoken-claim.md + +--- + + + +## 0. Scenario + +A trader in Ostia hears that a warehouse has run out of oil. + +At the same time, he sees carts leaving the warehouse loaded and sealed. + +The spoken claim and the visible signal do not match cleanly. + +The trader must decide whether the claim, the visible signal, or some third explanation is most useful. + +--- + +## 1. Evidence Received + +### Spoken Claim + +A porter says: + +> The warehouse is empty of oil. + +### Visible Signal + +The trader sees: + +- three carts leaving the warehouse +- sealed jars loaded under guard +- the warehouse doors partly closed +- clerks arguing near the entrance + +The claim says shortage. + +The signal may suggest movement, concealment, restricted access, prior sale, inspection, or reserved stock. + +--- + +## 2. Known Facts + +| Fact | Value | +|---|---| +| Location | Ostia | +| Good | oil | +| Spoken claim | warehouse empty | +| Visible signal | carts leaving with sealed jars | +| Source of claim | porter | +| True warehouse state | unknown | +| Destination of carts | unknown | +| Ownership of loaded goods | unknown | + +--- + +## 3. Why Signals Matter + +Visible signals may be stronger than casual speech, but they are not self-explaining. + +A cart leaving a warehouse may mean: + +- goods are available +- goods are already sold +- goods are being hidden +- goods are being moved under contract +- goods are being removed after inspection +- goods are being transferred to another owner +- goods are not oil at all + +Observation reduces uncertainty only when interpreted carefully. + +--- + +## 4. Why Speech Still Matters + +A spoken claim may be wrong, but it may contain context the eye cannot see. + +The porter may know: + +- which jars were oil +- who ordered the movement +- whether the remaining stock is spoken for +- whether the warehouse is closed to ordinary buyers +- whether the carts are moving damaged goods +- whether the clerk is lying + +Speech can explain a signal. + +But speech may also distort it. + +--- + + + +--- + + + +## 0. Scenario + +A trader in Ostia hears that a warehouse has run out of oil. + +At the same time, he sees carts leaving the warehouse loaded and sealed. + +The spoken claim and the visible signal do not match cleanly. + +The trader must decide whether the claim, the visible signal, or some third explanation is most useful. + +--- + +## 1. Evidence Received + +### Spoken Claim + +A porter says: + +> The warehouse is empty of oil. + +## 5. Incorrect Model Behavior + +The model should not: + +- treat visible evidence as automatically complete +- treat spoken claims as automatically false +- ignore who made the claim +- ignore what the visible signal actually proves +- assume carts leaving means stock is available +- assume a warehouse is empty because one porter said so +- collapse observation and interpretation into one fact + +--- + +## 6. Correct Model Behavior + +The model should separate: + +| Category | Meaning | +|---|---| +| observed signal | what was directly seen | +| spoken claim | what someone said | +| inferred meaning | what the actor thinks it means | +| confidence level | how reliable the interpretation is | +| missing fact | what remains unknown | + +Example: + +```text +observed_signal: three sealed carts left warehouse +spoken_claim: warehouse empty of oil +inference_options: sold_out | reserved_stock | hidden_transfer | false_claim +confidence: unresolved +``` + +--- + +## 7. Decision Example + +The trader must decide whether to act. + +Possible actions: + +- ask a second source +- follow the carts +- ask who owns the jars +- check another warehouse price +- delay purchase until confirmed +- buy remaining oil elsewhere before others react +- avoid acting until the signal is clearer + +The visible signal matters because it may reveal action before official explanation. + +The spoken claim matters because it may reveal interpretation before visible proof. + +--- + +## 8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used + +This example uses: + +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0020-posture-changes-by-audience` +- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price` +- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports` + +--- + +## 9. Success Condition + +If the model can distinguish what was directly observed from what was claimed, and can avoid treating either as complete truth without interpretation, this file is functioning correctly. + + + +--- diff --git a/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0004-source-motive-changes-confidence.chunked.md b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0004-source-motive-changes-confidence.chunked.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ce68caa --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0004-source-motive-changes-confidence.chunked.md @@ -0,0 +1,339 @@ +# CORPUS-0004 +## Source Motive Changes Confidence +### Status: Training Corpus Seed +### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty +### Purpose: Teach that the reliability of a report depends partly on what the source may gain or avoid by shaping the report +### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0004-source-motive-changes-confidence.md + +--- + + + +## 0. Scenario + +A trader in Ostia hears that oil prices in Capua are rising. + +The report comes from a cart owner who has empty space heading toward Capua. + +The report may be true. + +But the source benefits if the trader believes it and hires the cart. + +The trader must evaluate the report and the source's motive separately. + +--- + +## 1. Report Received + +A cart owner says: + +> Oil is selling high in Capua. If you have stock, send it now. + +The same cart owner then adds: + +> I have space leaving today. + +This does not prove the report is false. + +It does mean the source has a reason to make the opportunity sound urgent. + +--- + +## 2. Known Facts + +| Fact | Value | +|---|---| +| Location of trader | Ostia | +| Destination discussed | Capua | +| Good | oil | +| Reported condition | Capua price rising | +| Source | cart owner | +| Source benefit if believed | cart space sold | +| Current true Capua price | unknown | + +--- + +## 3. Why Motive Matters + +A source may shape a report because he wants: + +- cart space sold +- goods bought +- goods avoided +- a rival delayed +- a buyer reassured +- a creditor calmed +- a price raised or lowered +- attention moved away from another fact + +Motive does not equal falsehood. + +Motive changes confidence. + +--- + + + +--- + + + +## 0. Scenario + +A trader in Ostia hears that oil prices in Capua are rising. + +The report comes from a cart owner who has empty space heading toward Capua. + +The report may be true. + +But the source benefits if the trader believes it and hires the cart. + +The trader must evaluate the report and the source's motive separately. + +--- + +## 1. Report Received + +A cart owner says: + +> Oil is selling high in Capua. If you have stock, send it now. + +The same cart owner then adds: + +> I have space leaving today. + +This does not prove the report is false. + +It does mean the source has a reason to make the opportunity sound urgent. + +--- + +## 2. Known Facts + +| Fact | Value | +|---|---| +| Location of trader | Ostia | +| Destination discussed | Capua | +| Good | oil | +| Reported condition | Capua price rising | +| Source | cart owner | +| Source benefit if believed | cart space sold | +| Current true Capua price | unknown | + +--- + +## 4. Possible Interpretations + +### Interpretation A — Report True + +Oil really is selling high in Capua. + +The cart owner is both informed and self-interested. + +### Interpretation B — Report Exaggerated + +Oil sells somewhat higher, but not enough to justify urgency. + +The cart owner amplifies the price to fill space. + +### Interpretation C — Report Stale + +The cart owner heard old news and repeats it because it helps him. + +### Interpretation D — Report False + +The cart owner invents or distorts the claim to sell transport. + +The trader must not assume which interpretation is correct without more evidence. + +--- + + + +--- + + + +## 0. Scenario + +A trader in Ostia hears that oil prices in Capua are rising. + +The report comes from a cart owner who has empty space heading toward Capua. + +The report may be true. + +But the source benefits if the trader believes it and hires the cart. + +The trader must evaluate the report and the source's motive separately. + +--- + +## 1. Report Received + +A cart owner says: + +> Oil is selling high in Capua. If you have stock, send it now. + +The same cart owner then adds: + +> I have space leaving today. + +This does not prove the report is false. + +It does mean the source has a reason to make the opportunity sound urgent. + +--- + +## 2. Known Facts + +| Fact | Value | +|---|---| +| Location of trader | Ostia | +| Destination discussed | Capua | +| Good | oil | +| Reported condition | Capua price rising | +| Source | cart owner | +| Source benefit if believed | cart space sold | +| Current true Capua price | unknown | + +--- + +## 5. Correct Model Behavior + +The model should separate: + +| Category | Meaning | +|---|---| +| claim_content | what the source says | +| source_identity | who says it | +| source_motive | what the source may gain | +| source_access | whether the source could plausibly know | +| report_age | how old the information may be | +| confidence_adjustment | how motive changes reliability | +| action_decision | whether to act, verify, reduce exposure, or decline | + +A motivated source can still provide useful information. + +The confidence should be adjusted, not automatically set to zero. + +--- + +## 6. Incorrect Model Behavior + +The model should not: + +- accept a report at face value because it is useful +- reject every motivated report as false +- ignore who benefits if the actor believes the report +- confuse motive with proof of deception +- ignore whether the source could plausibly know +- treat all sources as equally reliable +- calculate final profit from a motivated report alone + +--- + +## 7. Decision Options + +The trader may: + +- ask a second source +- negotiate lower cart terms +- send a smaller cargo +- reserve cart space conditionally +- ask when the source heard the report +- compare other transport prices +- act quickly while accepting source-risk +- decline and wait for better confirmation + +The best action depends on margin, urgency, and confidence. + +--- + +## 8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used + +This example uses: + +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0020-posture-changes-by-audience` +- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price` +- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report` +- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports` + +--- + +## 9. Success Condition + +If the model sees a report and asks not only what was said, but who benefits if it is believed, this file is functioning correctly. + + + +---