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docs/training/corpus/Layer_0--Primitive_Facts/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information.md

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-# CORPUS-0008
-## Rumor Is Uncertain Information
-### Status: Training Corpus Seed
-### Layer: Layer_0--Primitive_Facts
-### Purpose: Teach that rumor is incomplete information, not simply falsehood
-### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_0--Primitive_Facts/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information.md
-
----
-
-## 0. Principle
-
-Rumor is uncertain information.
-
-A rumor may be true, false, partial, outdated, exaggerated, or shaped by the interests of the speaker.
-
-A trader should not ask only whether a rumor is true.  
-He should ask what changes while people believe it.
-
----
-
-## 1. Roman-Visible Example
-
-A porter says a bronze forge has burned.
-
-This may mean:
-
-- the whole forge burned
-- one shed burned
-- smoke was seen nearby
-- stock was moved before the fire
-- a rival wants people to believe the forge is ruined
-- the story is true but already stale
-
-The trader does not yet know the truth.
-
-But prices, fear, and behavior may begin moving before truth is confirmed.
-
----
-
-## 2. Minimal Rumor Structure
-
-A rumor has at least:
-
-1. a source
-2. a claim
-3. a confidence level
-4. a path of transmission
-5. a possible motive
-6. a time delay
-7. an effect on behavior
-
-Rumor is not only speech.  
-Rumor is speech that may change action.
-
----
-
-## 3. Incorrect Modern Assumption
-
-Incorrect assumption:
-
-> A rumor is useless unless it is confirmed true.
-
-Correction:
-
-> A rumor can be useful before confirmation if it changes prices, queues, trust, fear, or urgency.
-
-A false rumor may still create a real temporary market effect.
-
----
-
-## 4. Simulation Use
-
-This principle supports:
-
-- rumor quality
-- source credibility
-- uncertainty
-- false opportunities
-- early action
-- delayed confirmation
-- market reaction
-- actor-specific interpretation
-
-The model should not treat rumor as either pure truth or pure noise.
-
----
-
-## 5. Canonical Test
-
-If the model sees:
-
-> There is a rumor that the forge burned.
-
-It must ask:
-
-- who said it?
-- what exactly was claimed?
-- who has seen evidence?
-- who benefits if the rumor is believed?
-- how old is the report?
-- what prices may move before confirmation?
-- what action becomes possible because others are uncertain?
-
-Only then can the rumor be evaluated.
-
----
-
-## 6. Success Condition
-
-If the model stops treating rumor as falsehood and starts treating rumor as uncertain information with economic effects, this file is functioning correctly.