From 66f252028f18081ec5318a9a75d32bc7305fc6bc Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: TheRON Date: Thu, 30 Apr 2026 08:18:21 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] initial upload --- ...S-0004-source-motive-changes-confidence.md | 167 ++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 167 insertions(+) create mode 100644 docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0004-source-motive-changes-confidence.md diff --git a/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0004-source-motive-changes-confidence.md b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0004-source-motive-changes-confidence.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4ec0cf7 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0004-source-motive-changes-confidence.md @@ -0,0 +1,167 @@ +# CORPUS-0004 +## Source Motive Changes Confidence +### Status: Training Corpus Seed +### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty +### Purpose: Teach that the reliability of a report depends partly on what the source may gain or avoid by shaping the report +### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0004-source-motive-changes-confidence.md + +--- + +## 0. Scenario + +A trader in Ostia hears that oil prices in Capua are rising. + +The report comes from a cart owner who has empty space heading toward Capua. + +The report may be true. + +But the source benefits if the trader believes it and hires the cart. + +The trader must evaluate the report and the source's motive separately. + +--- + +## 1. Report Received + +A cart owner says: + +> Oil is selling high in Capua. If you have stock, send it now. + +The same cart owner then adds: + +> I have space leaving today. + +This does not prove the report is false. + +It does mean the source has a reason to make the opportunity sound urgent. + +--- + +## 2. Known Facts + +| Fact | Value | +|---|---| +| Location of trader | Ostia | +| Destination discussed | Capua | +| Good | oil | +| Reported condition | Capua price rising | +| Source | cart owner | +| Source benefit if believed | cart space sold | +| Current true Capua price | unknown | + +--- + +## 3. Why Motive Matters + +A source may shape a report because he wants: + +- cart space sold +- goods bought +- goods avoided +- a rival delayed +- a buyer reassured +- a creditor calmed +- a price raised or lowered +- attention moved away from another fact + +Motive does not equal falsehood. + +Motive changes confidence. + +--- + +## 4. Possible Interpretations + +### Interpretation A — Report True + +Oil really is selling high in Capua. + +The cart owner is both informed and self-interested. + +### Interpretation B — Report Exaggerated + +Oil sells somewhat higher, but not enough to justify urgency. + +The cart owner amplifies the price to fill space. + +### Interpretation C — Report Stale + +The cart owner heard old news and repeats it because it helps him. + +### Interpretation D — Report False + +The cart owner invents or distorts the claim to sell transport. + +The trader must not assume which interpretation is correct without more evidence. + +--- + +## 5. Correct Model Behavior + +The model should separate: + +| Category | Meaning | +|---|---| +| claim_content | what the source says | +| source_identity | who says it | +| source_motive | what the source may gain | +| source_access | whether the source could plausibly know | +| report_age | how old the information may be | +| confidence_adjustment | how motive changes reliability | +| action_decision | whether to act, verify, reduce exposure, or decline | + +A motivated source can still provide useful information. + +The confidence should be adjusted, not automatically set to zero. + +--- + +## 6. Incorrect Model Behavior + +The model should not: + +- accept a report at face value because it is useful +- reject every motivated report as false +- ignore who benefits if the actor believes the report +- confuse motive with proof of deception +- ignore whether the source could plausibly know +- treat all sources as equally reliable +- calculate final profit from a motivated report alone + +--- + +## 7. Decision Options + +The trader may: + +- ask a second source +- negotiate lower cart terms +- send a smaller cargo +- reserve cart space conditionally +- ask when the source heard the report +- compare other transport prices +- act quickly while accepting source-risk +- decline and wait for better confirmation + +The best action depends on margin, urgency, and confidence. + +--- + +## 8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used + +This example uses: + +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0020-posture-changes-by-audience` +- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price` +- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report` +- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports` + +--- + +## 9. Success Condition + +If the model sees a report and asks not only what was said, but who benefits if it is believed, this file is functioning correctly.