diff --git a/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0005-hidden-true-state-vs-known-state.md b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0005-hidden-true-state-vs-known-state.md deleted file mode 100644 index 3b5ead4..0000000 --- a/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0005-hidden-true-state-vs-known-state.md +++ /dev/null @@ -1,171 +0,0 @@ -# CORPUS-0005 -## Hidden True State Versus Known State -### Status: Training Corpus Seed -### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty -### Purpose: Teach that the simulation may contain a true state that the actor does not fully know -### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0005-hidden-true-state-vs-known-state.md - ---- - -## 0. Scenario - -A trader in Ostia considers sending oil to Capua. - -The simulation has a true current price in Capua. - -The trader does not know that true price. - -He only knows reports, signals, memories, and claims. - -The true state and the known state are not the same. - ---- - -## 1. Hidden True State - -The simulation may hold: - -| Hidden True State | Value | -|---|---:| -| Current Capua oil price | 17 asses | -| Buyer urgency | low | -| Rival shipment arrival | already arrived | -| Available cart space | limited | -| Warehouse capacity | tight | - -These values exist in the world whether the trader knows them or not. - ---- - -## 2. Actor Known State - -The trader may know only: - -| Actor Known State | Value | -|---|---| -| Reported Capua oil price | 22 asses | -| Report age | three days | -| Report source | muleteer | -| Rival shipment | unknown | -| Cart availability | not yet checked | -| Warehouse capacity | rumor only | - -The actor is not acting on the hidden true state. - -He is acting on perceived state. - ---- - -## 3. Why The Difference Matters - -A trader can make a rational decision from his known state and still lose because the hidden true state differs. - -Example: - -Known state suggests: - -```text -expected sale price = 22 asses -expected total cost = 16 asses -expected profit = 6 asses -``` - -Hidden true state resolves as: - -```text -actual sale price = 17 asses -actual total cost = 16 asses -actual profit = 1 as -``` - -The decision may have been reasonable. - -The outcome is still smaller because the true state differed. - ---- - -## 4. Incorrect Model Behavior - -The model should not: - -- assume the actor knows the simulation's true state -- judge the actor's decision only by the final outcome -- expose hidden values directly in dialogue -- collapse report, belief, and truth into one value -- treat wrong belief as irrational when evidence was limited -- treat hidden true state as player-facing knowledge - ---- - -## 5. Correct Model Behavior - -The model should separate: - -| Category | Meaning | -|---|---| -| true_state | what is actually true in simulation | -| perceived_state | what the actor believes or estimates | -| known_evidence | reports, signals, records, observations | -| confidence | how strongly actor should trust perceived state | -| action | what actor chooses from perceived state | -| outcome | what occurs when action meets true state | - -The actor acts from perceived state. - -The world resolves from true state. - ---- - -## 6. Example Resolution - -The trader sends oil because the perceived state shows opportunity. - -Later, the sale reveals the current Capua price was lower than reported. - -Result: - -```text -perceived opportunity: strong -decision quality from known evidence: reasonable -final arithmetic: small profit -lesson: perception and truth differed -``` - -The model should not call the trader foolish merely because the hidden state was unfavorable. - ---- - -## 7. Simulation Use - -This principle supports: - -- hidden scenario states -- partial observability -- confidence tags -- rumor systems -- actor perception -- delayed confirmation -- fair failure -- learning from outcome - -A good simulation can punish a decision without making the decision stupid. - ---- - -## 8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used - -This example uses: - -- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly` -- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information` -- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss` -- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0003-arithmetic-resolves-the-venture` -- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price` -- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report` -- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports` - ---- - -## 9. Success Condition - -If the model can distinguish what is true in the simulation from what the actor knows, believes, or can reasonably infer, this file is functioning correctly.