From 7e285353642e80576ceb2de1744940465f371d88 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: TheRON Date: Tue, 28 Apr 2026 07:56:44 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] initial upload --- docs/scenarios/SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0001.md | 235 +++++++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 235 insertions(+) create mode 100644 docs/scenarios/SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0001.md diff --git a/docs/scenarios/SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0001.md b/docs/scenarios/SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0001.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9a7b344 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/scenarios/SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0001.md @@ -0,0 +1,235 @@ +# SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0001 +## The Bronze Forge Fire +### Status: Canonical Scenario Seed +### Layer: OTIVM (Roman Merchant) +### Purpose: Foundational merchant-opportunity scenario driven by urban industrial disruption, rumor, and collateral demand discovery +### Repository Path: docs/scenarios/SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0001.md + +--- + +## 0. Design Intent + +A skilled MERCATOR does not react only to visible loss. +He reacts to shortages that will emerge elsewhere, before those markets understand why. + +This scenario exists to validate: + +- second-order opportunity recognition +- route-constrained agency +- urban supply-chain dependency propagation +- rumor under uncertainty +- time-sensitive arbitrage +- actor-trait effects on recovery + +--- + +## 1. Canonical Identifier + +| Field | Value | +|---|---| +| Scenario ID | `SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0001` | +| Title | The Bronze Forge Fire | +| Token | `bronze_forge_fire` | +| Domain | merchant | +| Repeatable | yes | +| Hidden Truth Variants | yes | + +--- + +## 2. Setting + +| Parameter | Value | +|---|---| +| Primary City | Ostia | +| Reachable Venture Route | Ostia -> Capua | +| District Type | industrial / mixed-use | +| Nearby Assets | creek, bridge, grazing yard, frontage | +| Legacy Asset | large bronze forge compound | + +--- + +## 3. Historical Basis + +This scenario uses historically plausible urban-industrial structures common to premodern cities: + +- inherited land privileges +- scarce transport frontage +- water access +- old workshops on favorable plots +- frequent destructive fires +- contested redevelopment pressure +- credit stress after disasters + +It is an analogue scenario, not a claim of a specific recorded Ostian incident. + +Confidence: Medium +Sources: comparative premodern urban fire history; Roman urban workshop archaeology; general ancient commercial scholarship. + +--- + +## 4. Visible Event + +At dawn, smoke rises from the bronze forge compound. + +By midday: + +- roof collapse reported +- fuel stores consumed +- molds damaged +- workers displaced +- adjacent traders disrupted +- access partially blocked + +Public cause remains unresolved. + +--- + +## 5. Hidden Cause Variants + +| Token | Description | +|---|---| +| accidental_fire | spark, kiln, storage mishap | +| negligence | poor safety practice | +| debt_escape | records loss / creditor evasion | +| coercive_persuasion | pressure to force sale | +| family_conflict | internal sabotage | +| competitor_action | rival industrial interest | +| magistrate_pressure | unofficial clearance | + +Player never receives certainty, only signals. + +--- + +## 6. Actor Model — Forge Clan + +| Trait Token | Meaning | +|---|---| +| asset_rich | controls valuable land | +| liquidity_poor | lacks rebuild cash | +| greedy | rejects fair terms | +| politically_weak | limited protection | +| strategically_foolish | poor long-term choices | +| prideful | delays compromise | + +These traits should be reusable actor parameters for later FACTOR/NPC systems. + +--- + +## 7. Immediate Effects (0–7 days) + +| Effect | Direction | +|---|---| +| bronze output | down | +| tool repair capacity | down | +| displaced labor | up | +| scrap availability | up | +| speculation | up | +| rumor volume | up | + +--- + +## 8. Secondary Effects (7–30 days) + +| Effect | Direction | +|---|---| +| bronze tool prices in Ostia | up | +| substitute iron demand | up | +| timber demand | up | +| stone demand | up | +| fuel demand | up | +| temporary rents | up | +| creditor leverage | up | + +--- + +## 9. Merchant Venture Logic (Ostia -> Capua Only) + +Merchant cannot freely exploit every local opportunity. He can launch the permitted venture route to Capua. + +### Correct Arbitrage Directions + +| Cargo | Direction | Thesis | +|---|---|---| +| substitute tools | Ostia -> Capua | sell unaffected stock before Capua reprices | +| iron stock | Ostia -> Capua | substitution demand spreads outward | +| hardware / nails | Ostia -> Capua | rebuild ripple and carpentry demand | +| timber fittings | Ostia -> Capua | construction demand chain | +| bronze tools | Capua -> Ostia | anticipate Ostia shortage | +| charcoal / fuel | Capua -> Ostia | rebuild fuel demand | + +--- + +## 10. Parameters With Confidence Tags + +| Parameter Token | Type | Confidence | Basis | +|---|---|---|---| +| workshop_output_bronze | production | High | direct scenario state | +| urban_fire_damage | event | High | direct scenario state | +| rumor_credibility | information | Medium | inferred social response | +| rebuild_delay_days | temporal | Medium | depends on cause + finance | +| timber_price_ostia | market | Medium | standard post-fire demand | +| iron_substitution_rate | industrial | Low | requires local craft data | +| displaced_workers_count | labor | Medium | workshop scale estimate | +| district_access_penalty | movement | Medium | fire cordon / debris | +| creditor_pressure | financial | Low | sparse direct evidence | +| tool_price_capua | market | Low | lagged transmission model | +| venture_window_days | opportunity | Medium | route duration + reaction lag | + +--- + +## 11. Relations + +```text +urban_fire_damage ↑ -> workshop_output_bronze ↓ +workshop_output_bronze ↓ -> bronze_tool_price_ostia ↑ +bronze_tool_price_ostia ↑ -> import_incentive_capua_to_ostia ↑ +bronze scarcity ↑ -> iron_substitution_rate ↑ +rebuild_delay_days ↑ -> timber_price_ostia ↑ +rumor_credibility ↑ -> speculative_buying ↑ +displaced_workers_count ↑ -> wages ↓ (short-term) +district_access_penalty ↑ -> freight_cost_local ↑ +information_delay_capua > 0 -> temporary arbitrage_window ↑ +``` + +--- + +## 12. Replayability Controls + +Randomize: + +- hidden cause +- severity +- rebuild speed +- magistrate stance +- rival merchant response +- rumor truthfulness +- transport delays + +--- + +## 13. Repository Use + +Internal simulation substrate. Not player-facing text. + +Use to validate: + +- event ingestion +- market propagation +- route constraints +- hidden information systems +- actor trait systems +- opportunity windows + +--- + +## 14. Canonical Success Condition + +If the participant stops asking: + +“What burned?” + +and starts asking: + +“Who now needs what, where, and when?” + +then the scenario is functioning correctly.