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+# DIALOGUE-PROLOGUE-0013
+## The Shipwreck Survivor — Canonical Draft
+### Status: Canonical Dialogue Draft
+### Layer: OTIVM (Roman Merchant)
+### Purpose: Prologue scenario teaching marine risk, salvage claims, fraud suspicion, distress pricing, witness value, and how disaster stories become markets.
+### Repository Path: docs/scenarios/DIALOGUE-PROLOGUE-0013.md
+
+---
+
+## 0. Design Intent
+
+A battered sailor reaches Ostia claiming his vessel was wrecked offshore.
+
+No cargo has arrived. No body has been confirmed. No magistrate yet rules.
+
+Yet creditors awaken, insurers panic, relatives hope, rivals smile politely, and traders begin pricing goods that may have sunk—or may be waiting elsewhere under another name.
+
+Known facts are uncertain:
+
+- genuine wreck or staged loss
+- full sinking or partial salvage
+- piracy, storm, grounding, or fraud
+- cargo destroyed or hidden
+- captain dead or absconded
+- survivor truthful, confused, or purchased
+
+The participant must learn that uncertain disaster can move markets before facts land.
+
+---
+
+## 1. Scene Constraints
+
+Location: harbor steps near pilot office, shrine, and marine tavern in Ostia, late morning.
+
+Primary signals:
+
+- injured survivor telling changing story
+- crowd gathering rapidly
+- lenders seeking manifests
+- relatives asking names
+- salvage crews being discussed
+- prices changing on goods believed lost
+
+Selection method: participant chooses whose interpretation to follow.
+
+---
+
+## 2. Opening Scene Draft
+
+The man smelled of salt, pitch, blood, and invention.
+
+Wrapped in borrowed blankets, one sandal missing, hair crusted white with dried spray, he sat on the harbor steps drinking watered wine as if it were medicine or strategy.
+
+Around him stood half the waterfront and the worst half of certainty.
+
+Marcus Atilius Varro stood where he could see the survivor, the pilot office door, and the road from the quays.
+
+Lucius Fabius Felix arrived smiling like a man hearing tragedy in small denominations.
+
+“No smoke, no riot, no edict,” Felix said. “Yet everyone running. Fine work.”
+
+Varro kept his eyes on the sailor.
+
+“He says a coastal freighter struck rocks south of the mouth.”
+
+“He says now.”
+
+Gaius Licinius Crispus approached carrying the expression of procedural hunger.
+
+“Name of vessel?”
+
+Felix answered first.
+
+“Depends who asks.”
+
+Crispus ignored him.
+
+Varro said, “He gave two names. One owner. Then another owner.”
+
+“Then concussion or fraud.”
+
+“Possibly both.”
+
+Quintus Cornelius Lentulus Minor arrived beneath a clean cloak that resented the harbor air.
+
+“I heard a grain ship was lost.”
+
+Felix laughed.
+
+“You heard because grain rises when spoken wet.”
+
+“It was said at breakfast.”
+
+“Then it is already overpriced.”
+
+Titus Varenus Secundus came from the pilot sheds carrying a broken oar peg.
+
+“Small freighter likely,” he said. “Not grain hull. Peg from river tender.”
+
+Varro nodded.
+
+“Useful.”
+
+Felix pointed.
+
+“There. Men bring evidence to gossip now.”
+
+A quiet voice came from behind the crowd.
+
+“Gossip pays transport.”
+
+Publius Terentius Chresimus stepped forward with two tablets and no sympathy wasted outwardly.
+
+“The survivor named cargo?”
+
+“Oil. Then wool. Then mixed amphorae,” Varro said.
+
+Chresimus nodded once.
+
+“Debt cargo.”
+
+Crispus turned.
+
+“Explain.”
+
+“Men who know their cargo speak first of cargo. Men who owe on cargo speak first of owners.”
+
+The sailor suddenly shouted that the captain had drowned heroically.
+
+Half the crowd crossed themselves in local fashion. The other half asked for the captain’s name.
+
+He gave none.
+
+Felix smiled.
+
+“Heroism without spelling. Efficient.”
+
+Lentulus frowned.
+
+“If men died, show respect.”
+
+“I am showing caution.”
+
+A fish seller nearby raised prices on imported garum immediately.
+
+Secundus noticed first.
+
+“There.”
+
+“What?” Crispus asked.
+
+“The first salvage.”
+
+Felix laughed.
+
+“No. The first prayer answered.”
+
+Varro watched the pilot office.
+
+“No harbor pilots moving.”
+
+“Because they are listening,” Secundus said.
+
+“Because they are bidding,” Chresimus corrected.
+
+A stout lender pushed through the crowd waving a wax tablet.
+
+“Was there blue cloth aboard? Answer carefully!”
+
+The sailor stared blankly.
+
+Felix admired him.
+
+“Either innocent or gifted.”
+
+Crispus said, “Witnesses must be separated.”
+
+Felix said, “There is only one witness.”
+
+“There are always more,” Chresimus said. “They simply arrive expensive.”
+
+Lentulus looked toward the sea road.
+
+“If a senator’s cargo were aboard, this would already be guarded.”
+
+Felix nodded.
+
+“So perhaps no senator lost anything. Comforting.”
+
+The sailor changed his story again.
+
+Now the wreck had burned.
+
+Varro spoke first.
+
+“Sea soaked. Then burned?”
+
+The sailor blinked.
+
+“Lightning.”
+
+Felix applauded softly.
+
+“The gods now testify.”
+
+Crispus stepped closer.
+
+“You will speak before an official.”
+
+The sailor looked alarmed.
+
+“Must I?”
+
+“Yes.”
+
+Felix leaned to Varro.
+
+“Fraud gains posture whenever clerks are mentioned.”
+
+Secundus pointed toward two tug crews arguing.
+
+“Salvage boats readying.”
+
+Varro said, “Before location known?”
+
+“Especially before location known.”
+
+Chresimus added:
+
+“First claim often belongs to first rope.”
+
+A woman arrived crying that her brother sailed that route.
+
+The crowd shifted again.
+
+Lentulus lowered his voice.
+
+“Now sympathy enters.”
+
+Felix replied quietly.
+
+“And accuracy leaves.”
+
+A spice merchant shuttered his stall and sent a runner inland.
+
+Crispus noticed.
+
+“Why?”
+
+Chresimus answered first.
+
+“If the lost vessel carried pepper, buy inland stock now.”
+
+“If it did not?”
+
+“Sell later anyway.”
+
+Varro asked, “What matters most?”
+
+Secundus answered:
+
+“Exact rocks. Tide state. Hull size. Available tow crews.”
+
+Lentulus said, “Owner name.”
+
+Crispus said, “Sworn statement.”
+
+Felix said, “Believability.”
+
+Chresimus said, “Who benefits if found late.”
+
+They all looked at him.
+
+“If cargo truly exists, delay favors buyers of claims.”
+
+The pilot office door opened.
+
+An official emerged with two scribes and immediate annoyance.
+
+Crispus straightened at once.
+
+“At last.”
+
+Felix sighed.
+
+“The funeral of spontaneity.”
+
+The official demanded silence.
+
+No one obeyed.
+
+Varro stepped toward the steps.
+
+“I’ll get the route, rocks, and tide.”
+
+Secundus moved with him.
+
+“I’ll secure a boat before rates triple.”
+
+Lentulus adjusted his cloak.
+
+“I will learn the owner and any family standing.”
+
+Crispus drew himself up.
+
+“I will formalize testimony.”
+
+Felix turned toward the market lane.
+
+“I will buy every good now rumored drowned.”
+
+Chresimus tied his tablets.
+
+“I will learn who insured cargo no one has yet seen.”
+
+Felix looked back once.
+
+“Six men. One survivor. None of us discussing mercy.”
+
+Varro answered without turning.
+
+“We are discussing what his story moves.”
+
+---
+
+## 3. Choice Presentation
+
+> The sea has delivered one man and many rumors. Whose reading of the steps do you trust?
+
+| Choice | Background |
+|---|---|
+| Follow Varro to verify route, tide, and practical facts. | Former Legionary |
+| Follow Felix to trade on fear and false scarcity. | Freedman Trader |
+| Follow Lentulus to identify owners, names, and status exposure. | Noble Younger Son |
+| Follow Crispus to seize testimony, claims, and legal leverage. | Failed Magistrate |
+| Follow Secundus to organize salvage, boats, and recovery crews. | Camp Logistician |
+| Follow Chresimus to trace insurance, debt, and who profits from uncertainty. | Guild Scribe |
+
+---
+
+## 4. What This Scene Teaches
+
+- Disaster rumors can move prices immediately.
+- Witness testimony has economic value.
+- Salvage rights may matter before truth is known.
+- Creditors and insurers react faster than mourners.
+- False loss claims can be profitable.
+- Physical verification often lags market reaction.
+
+---
+
+## 5. Canonical Success Condition
+
+If the participant stops asking:
+
+“Did the ship sink?”
+
+and starts asking:
+
+“Who gains while no one knows?”
+
+then this dialogue is functioning correctly.