diff --git a/docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0010-hard-stop-after-loss.md b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0010-hard-stop-after-loss.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0976c13 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0010-hard-stop-after-loss.md @@ -0,0 +1,224 @@ +# CORPUS-0010 +## Hard Stop After Loss +### Status: Training Corpus Seed +### Layer: Layer_1--Worked_Examples +### Purpose: Teach that a venture loss can remove the trader's ability to continue acting by exhausting liquidity, trust, transport access, or settlement capacity +### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0010-hard-stop-after-loss.md + +--- + +## 0. Scenario + +A trader in Ostia sends oil to Capua. + +The venture fails. + +The failure is not only a negative number in the account. + +The loss leaves the trader unable to begin the next venture because his usable capacity has fallen below the minimum required to act. + +This is a hard stop. + +--- + +## 1. Starting Condition + +| Item | Value | +|---|---:| +| Coin stock before venture | 20 asses | +| Oil purchase price | 10 asses | +| Movement and handling cost | 6 asses | +| Reserve coin after dispatch | 4 asses | +| Minimum coin needed for next small venture | 8 asses | + +The trader begins with enough coin to attempt the venture. + +He does not have much room for failure. + +--- + +## 2. Expected Outcome + +The trader expects to sell the oil in Capua for 22 asses. + +Expected total cost: + +```text +10 + 6 = 16 asses +``` + +Expected profit: + +```text +22 - 16 = 6 asses profit +``` + +If successful, coin stock after settlement would increase. + +--- + +## 3. Failed Outcome + +The oil sells for only 12 asses because a rival shipment arrived first. + +Actual result: + +```text +sale value = 12 asses +total cost = 16 asses +loss = 4 asses +``` + +Coin position after settlement: + +```text +starting coin: 20 asses +venture cost: -16 asses +sale return: +12 asses +------------------------ +ending coin: 16 asses +``` + +The trader still has coin. + +But the hard stop may come from obligations and access, not coin alone. + +--- + +## 4. Hidden Settlement Problem + +The trader had promised payment to the cart driver after sale. + +| Obligation | Value | +|---|---:| +| Cart payment still due | 6 asses | +| Warehouse fee due | 2 asses | +| Personal subsistence reserve needed | 4 asses | + +Usable coin after required payments: + +```text +ending coin: 16 asses +cart payment due: -6 asses +warehouse fee due: -2 asses +subsistence reserve: -4 asses +--------------------------------- +usable venture coin: 4 asses +``` + +The next small venture requires 8 asses. + +The trader has only 4 usable asses. + +The system stops him from launching the next venture unless he finds credit, sells assets, reduces costs, or accepts a smaller action. + +--- + +## 5. Trust Hard Stop Variant + +Even if coin remains, trust may fail. + +If the trader delays payment to the cart driver: + +- the cart driver may refuse future service +- other drivers may hear of late payment +- transport costs may rise +- credit may tighten +- the trader may lose timing advantage + +The hard stop may be: + +```text +transport_access = unavailable +``` + +not merely: + +```text +coin_stock = low +``` + +--- + +## 6. Access Hard Stop Variant + +If the failed venture damages reputation with the Capua buyer: + +- future buyer access declines +- seller confidence declines +- deferred payment becomes unavailable +- the same route becomes less viable + +The trader may still have coin, but fewer people will transact with him. + +--- + +## 7. Correct Model Behavior + +The model should separate: + +| Category | Meaning | +|---|---| +| arithmetic loss | sale value minus total cost | +| remaining coin | coin after settlement | +| usable coin | coin after obligations and reserves | +| trust condition | whether partners still transact | +| access condition | whether route and market remain open | +| next action threshold | minimum needed to continue | + +Failure should be evaluated by whether the actor can still act. + +--- + +## 8. Incorrect Model Behavior + +The model should not: + +- treat all losses as equal +- stop analysis at the arithmetic loss +- assume remaining coin is fully usable +- ignore unpaid obligations +- ignore trust damage +- ignore minimum venture thresholds +- assume the next venture is still available +- treat failure as only a score reduction + +--- + +## 9. Recovery Paths + +A hard stop may be recoverable through: + +- smaller venture +- non-coin settlement +- credit +- asset sale +- favor from contact +- cost reduction +- delayed action +- accepting a lower-status opportunity + +Recovery is not automatic. + +The model should identify what capacity is missing. + +--- + +## 10. Layer-0 Concepts Used + +This example uses: + +- `CORPUS-0003-money-has-purchasing-power` +- `CORPUS-0004-cost-includes-more-than-purchase-price` +- `CORPUS-0005-profit-is-sale-minus-total-cost` +- `CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost` +- `CORPUS-0009-liquidity-differs-from-wealth` +- `CORPUS-0010-credit-depends-on-trust` +- `CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss` +- `CORPUS-0019-success-has-no-boundary-failure-has-a-hard-stop` + +--- + +## 11. Success Condition + +If the model sees a venture loss and asks whether liquidity, trust, access, or minimum action capacity has fallen below the threshold needed to continue, this file is functioning correctly.