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docs/scenarios/SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0003.md

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+# SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0003
+## The FAENVS Offer
+### Status: Canonical Scenario Seed
+### Layer: OTIVM (Roman Merchant)
+### Purpose: Merchant-opportunity scenario driven by credit deployment, distress finance, AVCTORITAS leverage, and non-cargo NEGOTIVM
+### Repository Path: docs/scenarios/SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0003.md
+
+---
+
+## 0. Design Intent
+
+Not every profitable NEGOTIVM moves cargo.
+
+This scenario validates that a MERCATOR may profit by deploying liquidity, reputation, and legal position into a distressed market without conducting ITER.
+
+The participant should learn that capital can move faster than wagons.
+
+This scenario exists to validate:
+
+- finance as a parallel economic layer
+- AVCTORITAS as usable capital
+- default and collateral risk
+- social cost of predatory lending
+- liquidity trade-offs versus cargo ventures
+- scenario chaining after 0001 and 0002
+
+---
+
+## 1. Canonical Identifier
+
+| Field | Value |
+|---|---|
+| Scenario ID | `SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0003` |
+| Title | The FAENVS Offer |
+| Token | `faenus_offer` |
+| Domain | merchant |
+| Repeatable | yes |
+| Hidden Truth Variants | yes |
+
+---
+
+## 2. Setting
+
+| Parameter | Value |
+|---|---|
+| Primary City | Capua |
+| Merchant Origin | Ostia |
+| Scenario Trigger | recent industrial fire / contractor distress |
+| Counterparty Type | timber contractor, forge clan, workshop owner, transport syndicate |
+| Venture Form | loan, partnership, advance purchase, debt acquisition |
+
+---
+
+## 3. Historical Basis
+
+Roman commerce extensively used private credit, partnership arrangements, delayed settlement, and lending at interest. Enforcement depended not only on law, but on witnesses, status, patronage, and reputation.
+
+Attitudes toward lending were mixed: common and necessary, but socially suspect when seen as exploitative.
+
+This scenario is an analogue synthesis, not a claim of one recorded transaction.
+
+Confidence: Medium  
+Sources: Roman legal history; Cicero correspondence; scholarship on Roman credit networks and private finance.
+
+---
+
+## 4. Visible Event
+
+A distressed contractor seeks immediate liquidity after recent losses.
+
+Observed signs may include:
+
+- unpaid workers
+- halted rebuilding
+- discounted inventory sale
+- urgent meetings with creditors
+- family silver pledged
+- public denial of insolvency
+- requests for short-term capital
+
+Need is visible. True solvency is not.
+
+---
+
+## 5. Hidden Counterparty Truth Variants
+
+| Token | Description |
+|---|---|
+| recoverable_shortfall | temporary cash gap, viable business |
+| concealed_insolvency | collapse already inevitable |
+| asset_rich_cash_poor | valuable collateral, no liquidity |
+| politically_protected | repayment likely through influence |
+| fraudulent_borrower | seeks funds with no intent to repay |
+| honest_but_unlucky | good risk harmed by disaster |
+| rival_backing_pending | alternative finance imminent |
+
+Signals only. No certainty.
+
+---
+
+## 6. Merchant Actions
+
+| Action | Description |
+|---|---|
+| short_term_loan | lend cash at agreed return |
+| secured_loan | lend against pledged assets |
+| advance_purchase | pay now for future stock at discount |
+| partnership_finance | fund rebuild for share of profits |
+| debt_claim_purchase | buy existing debt cheaply |
+| decline_offer | preserve liquidity for cargo ventures |
+
+---
+
+## 7. Immediate Effects (0–7 days)
+
+| Effect | Direction |
+|---|---|
+| contractor liquidity | up |
+| merchant liquidity | down |
+| worker confidence | possible up |
+| rumor volume | up |
+| rival lenders | up |
+| price of pledged assets | re-evaluated |
+
+---
+
+## 8. Secondary Effects (7–30 days)
+
+| Effect | Direction |
+|---|---|
+| rebuild speed | up or down |
+| repayment probability | resolves gradually |
+| merchant reputation | up or down |
+| access to future deals | up or down |
+| legal disputes | possible |
+| cargo opportunity cost | up |
+
+---
+
+## 9. Tertiary Effects (30+ days)
+
+| Effect | Direction |
+|---|---|
+| durable patronage ties | possible |
+| recurring income stream | possible |
+| asset seizure | possible |
+| political enemies | possible |
+| elevated AVCTORITAS | possible |
+| damaged standing as usurer | possible |
+
+---
+
+## 10. Scenario Chain Logic
+
+If SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0001 or 0002 occurred recently:
+
+- distressed borrowers more common
+- collateral cheaper
+- demand for liquidity higher
+- default risk also higher
+- profitable terms available sooner
+
+Shock events should create finance opportunities.
+
+---
+
+## 11. Parameters With Confidence Tags
+
+| Parameter Token | Type | Confidence | Basis |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| principal_amount | finance | High | direct contract term |
+| interest_rate | finance | Medium | negotiated / context dependent |
+| repayment_term_days | temporal | High | direct contract term |
+| collateral_value | asset | Medium | appraisal uncertainty |
+| borrower_reliability | actor | Low | inferred reputation |
+| legal_enforceability | institutional | Low | status + witnesses + politics |
+| default_probability | risk | Low | composite estimate |
+| reputation_cost | social | Low | context dependent |
+| liquidity_locked | finance | High | merchant capital committed |
+| future_deal_access | social | Low | downstream effect |
+
+---
+
+## 12. Relations
+
+```text
+borrower_distress ↑ -> credit_demand ↑
+credit_demand ↑ -> offered_return ↑
+merchant_auctoritas ↑ -> borrower_quality ↑
+merchant_auctoritas ↑ -> default_probability ↓
+interest_rate ↑ -> reputation_cost ↑
+collateral_value ↑ -> downside_risk ↓
+liquidity_locked ↑ -> cargo_venture_capacity ↓
+recent_fire_scenarios == true -> profitable_offers ↑
+legal_enforceability ↓ -> collateral_importance ↑
+```
+
+---
+
+## 13. Replayability Controls
+
+Randomize:
+
+- borrower truth state
+- amount requested
+- collateral quality
+- hidden rival lender
+- magistrate alignment
+- repayment punctuality
+- witness reliability
+- broader market recovery speed
+
+---
+
+## 14. Repository Use
+
+Internal simulation substrate. Not player-facing text.
+
+Use to validate:
+
+- finance without cargo movement
+- AVCTORITAS utility
+- actor reputation systems
+- legal uncertainty
+- liquidity opportunity cost
+- scenario compounding across economic layers
+
+---
+
+## 15. Canonical Success Condition
+
+If the participant stops asking:
+
+“What can I carry?”
+
+and starts asking:
+
+“Whose need can I price?”
+
+then the scenario is functioning correctly.