diff --git a/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0010-information-can-be-withheld.md b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0010-information-can-be-withheld.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6b04b5f --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0010-information-can-be-withheld.md @@ -0,0 +1,165 @@ +# CORPUS-0010 +## Information Can Be Withheld +### Status: Training Corpus Seed +### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty +### Purpose: Teach that actors may delay, conceal, or selectively reveal information because information itself has economic value +### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0010-information-can-be-withheld.md + +--- + +## 0. Scenario + +A trader in Ostia asks whether a timber convoy from Capua is delayed. + +A warehouse clerk knows the convoy is late. + +The clerk does not immediately say so. + +The clerk may withhold the information because revealing it changes prices, bargaining position, storage demand, or creditor behavior. + +Information is not automatically shared merely because it is known. + +--- + +## 1. Known Facts + +| Fact | Value | +|---|---| +| Location | Ostia | +| Event | timber convoy delayed | +| Actor with knowledge | warehouse clerk | +| Actor seeking knowledge | trader | +| Public knowledge | unclear | +| Clerk motive | preserve advantage or avoid consequence | +| Trader confidence | incomplete | + +The clerk's silence is itself a signal, but not a complete fact. + +--- + +## 2. Why Information Is Withheld + +An actor may withhold information to: + +- buy before prices rise +- sell before prices fall +- avoid blame +- delay creditors +- preserve queue position +- protect a patron +- avoid panic +- negotiate better terms +- prevent rivals from acting +- wait until his own obligation is secure + +Withheld information is often more valuable than spoken information. + +--- + +## 3. Forms Of Withholding + +Information may be withheld through: + +| Form | Description | +|---|---| +| silence | actor simply does not answer | +| delay | answer comes after the useful window narrows | +| partial truth | only safe details are shared | +| misdirection | attention is shifted to another fact | +| denial | actor says there is no issue | +| vague statement | actor speaks without usable specificity | +| selective audience | actor tells one person but not another | + +Withholding does not always require a false statement. + +--- + +## 4. Incorrect Model Behavior + +The model should not: + +- assume every informed actor speaks honestly and immediately +- treat absence of report as absence of event +- assume silence means ignorance +- assume withholding always proves bad intent +- expose hidden facts because one actor knows them +- ignore who benefits if information remains limited +- treat information as costless once discovered + +--- + +## 5. Correct Model Behavior + +The model should separate: + +| Category | Meaning | +|---|---| +| known_by_actor | who knows the fact | +| public_knowledge | whether the wider market knows | +| withheld_from | who is not told | +| motive_to_withhold | why the fact is not shared | +| signal_of_withholding | behavior suggesting concealment or delay | +| effect_of_withholding | price, access, timing, or trust changes | +| discovery_path | how another actor might learn it | + +Information should have possession and movement, like goods. + +--- + +## 6. Example: Clerk Withholds Timber Delay + +The clerk knows the timber convoy is delayed. + +If he reveals it immediately: + +- carpenters seek substitutes +- storage plans change +- transport prices may rise +- creditors may press exposed contractors + +If he withholds it briefly: + +- his associate may buy substitute stock first +- storage arrangements may be renegotiated +- the warehouse avoids public blame until later + +The delay in speech changes economic conditions. + +--- + +## 7. How The Trader May Respond + +The trader may: + +- ask a second clerk +- watch cart movements +- compare storage behavior +- question porters indirectly +- test prices for substitute timber +- offer payment for reliable notice +- act on the possibility that information is being withheld +- avoid overcommitting until evidence improves + +The trader does not need proof of withholding to treat silence as meaningful. + +--- + +## 8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used + +This example uses: + +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0011-status-changes-access` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0020-posture-changes-by-audience` +- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price` +- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0005-hidden-true-state-vs-known-state` +- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0009-same-event-different-knowledge` + +--- + +## 9. Success Condition + +If the model stops assuming known information is automatically shared and starts tracking who holds information, who receives it, who is denied it, and what changes while it is withheld, this file is functioning correctly.