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+# DIALOGUE-PROLOGUE-0016
+## The Timber Auction — Canonical Draft
+### Status: Canonical Dialogue Draft
+### Layer: OTIVM (Roman Merchant)
+### Purpose: Prologue scenario teaching bidding behavior, storage limits, construction demand, future expectations, and how bulky inputs create strategic competition.
+### Repository Path: docs/scenarios/DIALOGUE-PROLOGUE-0016.md
+
+---
+
+## 0. Design Intent
+
+A large timber lot has arrived unexpectedly and is being auctioned in Ostia.
+
+No ship sinks. No law changes. No patron dies.
+
+Yet builders gather, cart rates rise, sawyers are booked instantly, speculators appear, warehouse men refuse bulky loads, and men who need wood tomorrow must decide today.
+
+Known facts are uncertain:
+
+- quality better or worse than claimed
+- fresh-cut or seasoned
+- stolen, seized, or legitimate surplus
+- hidden rot within outer beams
+- one lot or more still incoming
+- civic works contract about to be announced
+
+The participant must learn that raw materials create markets before they are processed.
+
+---
+
+## 1. Scene Constraints
+
+Location: riverside yard near cranes, saw pits, and storage sheds in Ostia, late morning.
+
+Primary signals:
+
+- stacked beams and planks
+- crowd of builders and brokers
+- auction clerk shouting lots
+- carts scarce
+- sawyers taking deposits
+- prices changing with rumors
+
+Selection method: participant chooses whose interpretation to follow.
+
+---
+
+## 2. Opening Scene Draft
+
+The yard smelled of sap, rope, mud, and impatience.
+
+Long beams lay stacked like sleeping giants beside shorter planks already being touched by too many hands. Men thumped wood, squinted at grain, lied confidently, and called it expertise.
+
+Marcus Atilius Varro stood where he could see the stacks, the road gate, and the cart queue.
+
+Lucius Fabius Felix arrived smiling like a man who loved anything sold in haste.
+
+“No fire. No riot. No rain,” Felix said. “Only timber. Civilization persists.”
+
+Varro nodded toward the beams.
+
+“Thirty carts worth.”
+
+“Then forty men pretending not to need it.”
+
+Gaius Licinius Crispus approached with visible suspicion of splinters.
+
+“Whose property?” he demanded.
+
+Felix answered first.
+
+“At current shouting volume? Everyone’s.”
+
+Crispus ignored him.
+
+“A contractor defaulted,” Varro said. “Cargo seized, now liquidated.”
+
+“Then liens remain possible.”
+
+“Then you are happy,” Felix said.
+
+Quintus Cornelius Lentulus Minor arrived brushing sawdust from a cloak that had not yet touched any.
+
+“My uncle mentioned repairs to two townhouses,” Lentulus said.
+
+Felix nodded.
+
+“And now family duty smells of pine.”
+
+Titus Varenus Secundus came from the rear stack carrying a shaving curl.
+
+“Mixed lot,” he said. “Some seasoned. Some green. Some warped.”
+
+Varro asked, “Useful?”
+
+“Very.”
+
+A quiet voice came from beside the clerk’s table.
+
+“Especially if sold by average quality.”
+
+Publius Terentius Chresimus stood reading lot tallies upside down from the buyer’s side.
+
+Felix sighed.
+
+“Even lumber becomes mathematics.”
+
+“It was mathematics before it was cut,” Chresimus said.
+
+The auction clerk shouted:
+
+“Lot three! Twelve roof beams! Payment today!”
+
+Hands rose instantly.
+
+Lentulus looked surprised.
+
+“So quickly?”
+
+Secundus said, “Roofs leak whether men are ready or not.”
+
+Felix added, “And winter bids in summer.”
+
+Crispus folded his hands.
+
+“If seized goods, title clarity matters.”
+
+Felix stared.
+
+“You hear bids and desire paperwork. Remarkable.”
+
+A builder nearby split a beam end with his knife.
+
+The interior showed dark streaking.
+
+The crowd murmured.
+
+Secundus nodded.
+
+“Water sat in it.”
+
+Varro asked, “Bad?”
+
+“For spans, maybe. For doors, carts, wedges, fuel—fine.”
+
+Felix smiled.
+
+“There. Nothing useless except hesitation.”
+
+A sawyer hung a sign:
+
+BOOKED THREE DAYS
+
+Then crossed it out and wrote:
+
+FOUR DAYS.
+
+Chresimus watched calmly.
+
+“Labor shortage begins.”
+
+Lentulus said, “Can more sawyers not be hired?”
+
+Secundus looked at him.
+
+“Can more Lentuli be carved?”
+
+Felix laughed loudly.
+
+Crispus said, “If civic works are imminent, private bids may be foolish.”
+
+All five turned.
+
+“What civic works?” Varro asked.
+
+Crispus adjusted himself slightly.
+
+“Rumor only.”
+
+Felix grinned.
+
+“There. The sweetest species of fact.”
+
+Chresimus said, “If true, prices rise after noon.”
+
+“If false?”
+
+“Prices rise until noon.”
+
+The auction clerk announced another lot: wheel blanks and axle stock.
+
+Varro stepped forward slightly.
+
+“Transport parts.”
+
+Secundus nodded.
+
+“Worth more than beams to the right buyer.”
+
+Felix smiled.
+
+“Then let the wrong buyers chase roofs.”
+
+Lentulus said, “My family needs appearance more than axle stock.”
+
+“Your family needs carts to move appearance,” Varro said.
+
+Felix applauded once.
+
+“Growth.”
+
+A warehouse keeper shouted that no more bulky storage would be accepted without premium fees.
+
+The crowd groaned.
+
+Chresimus said, “There. Real scarcity.”
+
+“Wood?” Lentulus asked.
+
+“Space.”
+
+Crispus looked toward the clerk.
+
+“Terms of payment?”
+
+“Today or guaranteed note.”
+
+Felix brightened.
+
+“There. Men without coin may still become foolish.”
+
+A broker whispered that another raftload was already upriver.
+
+Half the bidders hesitated.
+
+Prices dipped at once.
+
+Secundus narrowed his eyes.
+
+“No raft visible.”
+
+Felix said, “Then he owns none and wants cheaper lot six.”
+
+Chresimus nodded.
+
+“Likely.”
+
+Varro watched who stopped bidding.
+
+“Three men left the ring.”
+
+“Cash thin,” Chresimus said.
+
+“Courage thinner,” Felix replied.
+
+A carpenter ran in shouting that nails had doubled at the iron lane.
+
+The yard changed mood immediately.
+
+Secundus said, “There.”
+
+“What?” Lentulus asked.
+
+“The timber is not the timber.”
+
+Varro nodded.
+
+“It is what timber requires.”
+
+Felix smiled.
+
+“At last, poetry in boots.”
+
+Crispus said, “What matters now?”
+
+Varro answered first.
+
+“Cart access, road priority, fast loading.”
+
+Secundus said, “Cut list, drying time, true dimensions.”
+
+Lentulus said, “Future repairs and visible prestige.”
+
+Felix said, “Mispriced lots and frightened bidders.”
+
+Crispus said, “Title certainty and enforceable purchase.”
+
+Chresimus said, “Who can store until shortage returns.”
+
+They all looked at him.
+
+He shrugged slightly.
+
+“Patience has warehouses.”
+
+The clerk shouted final call on axle stock.
+
+Varro moved.
+
+“I’ll secure movement lots first.”
+
+Secundus moved with him.
+
+“I’ll inspect hidden defects.”
+
+Lentulus straightened.
+
+“I will acquire visible beams before rivals do.”
+
+Felix turned toward the hesitant bidders.
+
+“I will buy their nerves cheaply.”
+
+Crispus drew himself up.
+
+“I will verify claims and liens.”
+
+Chresimus tied his tablets.
+
+“I will learn who started the upriver raft rumor.”
+
+Felix looked back once.
+
+“Six men. One timber yard. None of us discussing trees.”
+
+Varro answered without turning.
+
+“We are discussing what stands because of them.”
+
+---
+
+## 3. Choice Presentation
+
+> The timber is here. The future price of building is being decided now. Whose reading of the yard do you trust?
+
+| Choice | Background |
+|---|---|
+| Follow Varro to secure movement lots and transport advantage. | Former Legionary |
+| Follow Felix to exploit fear, rumors, and weak bidders. | Freedman Trader |
+| Follow Lentulus to buy prestige materials and family advantage. | Noble Younger Son |
+| Follow Crispus to verify title, liens, and lawful claims. | Failed Magistrate |
+| Follow Secundus to inspect quality, defects, and practical uses. | Camp Logistician |
+| Follow Chresimus to trace storage, cash strain, and strategic patience. | Guild Scribe |
+
+---
+
+## 4. What This Scene Teaches
+
+- Raw materials create secondary shortages immediately.
+- Bulky goods make storage and transport decisive.
+- Quality variation changes value dramatically.
+- Rumors alter bidding before facts arrive.
+- Inputs like nails, sawyers, and carts may matter more than the lot itself.
+- Patience can outperform urgency when others must buy now.
+
+---
+
+## 5. Canonical Success Condition
+
+If the participant stops asking:
+
+“How much is the timber worth?”
+
+and starts asking:
+
+“Who needs it before tomorrow?”
+
+then this dialogue is functioning correctly.