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+# CORPUS-0003
+## Visible Signal Versus Spoken Claim
+### Status: Training Corpus Seed
+### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
+### Purpose: Teach that observed signals and spoken claims are different evidence types, and that each must be evaluated by source, timing, and interpretation
+### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0003-visible-signal-vs-spoken-claim.md
+
+---
+
+## 0. Scenario
+
+A trader in Ostia hears that a warehouse has run out of oil.
+
+At the same time, he sees carts leaving the warehouse loaded and sealed.
+
+The spoken claim and the visible signal do not match cleanly.
+
+The trader must decide whether the claim, the visible signal, or some third explanation is most useful.
+
+---
+
+## 1. Evidence Received
+
+### Spoken Claim
+
+A porter says:
+
+> The warehouse is empty of oil.
+
+### Visible Signal
+
+The trader sees:
+
+- three carts leaving the warehouse
+- sealed jars loaded under guard
+- the warehouse doors partly closed
+- clerks arguing near the entrance
+
+The claim says shortage.
+
+The signal may suggest movement, concealment, restricted access, prior sale, inspection, or reserved stock.
+
+---
+
+## 2. Known Facts
+
+| Fact | Value |
+|---|---|
+| Location | Ostia |
+| Good | oil |
+| Spoken claim | warehouse empty |
+| Visible signal | carts leaving with sealed jars |
+| Source of claim | porter |
+| True warehouse state | unknown |
+| Destination of carts | unknown |
+| Ownership of loaded goods | unknown |
+
+---
+
+## 3. Why Signals Matter
+
+Visible signals may be stronger than casual speech, but they are not self-explaining.
+
+A cart leaving a warehouse may mean:
+
+- goods are available
+- goods are already sold
+- goods are being hidden
+- goods are being moved under contract
+- goods are being removed after inspection
+- goods are being transferred to another owner
+- goods are not oil at all
+
+Observation reduces uncertainty only when interpreted carefully.
+
+---
+
+## 4. Why Speech Still Matters
+
+A spoken claim may be wrong, but it may contain context the eye cannot see.
+
+The porter may know:
+
+- which jars were oil
+- who ordered the movement
+- whether the remaining stock is spoken for
+- whether the warehouse is closed to ordinary buyers
+- whether the carts are moving damaged goods
+- whether the clerk is lying
+
+Speech can explain a signal.
+
+But speech may also distort it.
+
+---
+
+## 5. Incorrect Model Behavior
+
+The model should not:
+
+- treat visible evidence as automatically complete
+- treat spoken claims as automatically false
+- ignore who made the claim
+- ignore what the visible signal actually proves
+- assume carts leaving means stock is available
+- assume a warehouse is empty because one porter said so
+- collapse observation and interpretation into one fact
+
+---
+
+## 6. Correct Model Behavior
+
+The model should separate:
+
+| Category | Meaning |
+|---|---|
+| observed signal | what was directly seen |
+| spoken claim | what someone said |
+| inferred meaning | what the actor thinks it means |
+| confidence level | how reliable the interpretation is |
+| missing fact | what remains unknown |
+
+Example:
+
+```text
+observed_signal: three sealed carts left warehouse
+spoken_claim: warehouse empty of oil
+inference_options: sold_out | reserved_stock | hidden_transfer | false_claim
+confidence: unresolved
+```
+
+---
+
+## 7. Decision Example
+
+The trader must decide whether to act.
+
+Possible actions:
+
+- ask a second source
+- follow the carts
+- ask who owns the jars
+- check another warehouse price
+- delay purchase until confirmed
+- buy remaining oil elsewhere before others react
+- avoid acting until the signal is clearer
+
+The visible signal matters because it may reveal action before official explanation.
+
+The spoken claim matters because it may reveal interpretation before visible proof.
+
+---
+
+## 8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used
+
+This example uses:
+
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly`
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information`
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss`
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0020-posture-changes-by-audience`
+- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price`
+- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports`
+
+---
+
+## 9. Success Condition
+
+If the model can distinguish what was directly observed from what was claimed, and can avoid treating either as complete truth without interpretation, this file is functioning correctly.