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# CORPUS-0009
## Same Event, Different Knowledge
### Status: Training Corpus Seed
### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
### Purpose: Teach that different actors may know different parts of the same event because of position, status, timing, and access
### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0009-same-event-different-knowledge.md
---
<!-- chunk:
id: CORPUS-0009::01::evidence_structure
source_file: CORPUS-0009-same-event-different-knowledge.md
repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0009-same-event-different-knowledge.md
domain: commerce
layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
document_id: CORPUS-0009
document_title: Same Event, Different Knowledge
section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. Hidden True Event + 2. Actor Knowledge States ...
chunk_role: evidence_structure
concept_tags:
- event
- knowledge
- evidence_structure
- uncertainty
knowledge_state:
- reported
- known_state
- hidden_true_state
actors: []
-->
## 0. Scenario
A timber barge is delayed near Ostia.
The event is one event.
But no single actor automatically knows the whole event.
A porter, trader, clerk, official, buyer, and cart owner may each know a different part.
The model must not treat “the city knows” as one shared knowledge state.
---
## 1. Hidden True Event
The simulation true state:
| Hidden True State | Value |
|---|---|
| Event | timber barge delayed |
| Cause | towline broke |
| Cargo | dry beam stock and wheel blanks |
| Delay | one day minimum |
| Damage | minor |
| Destination buyers | two carpentry shops |
| Official notice | not yet filed |
The true state exists.
Most actors know only fragments.
---
## 2. Actor Knowledge States
| Actor | What They Know |
|---|---|
| towman | towline broke; delay likely one day |
| porter | a timber barge is late |
| trader | timber buyers are asking questions |
| warehouse clerk | reserved storage may remain empty today |
| cart owner | return load may be delayed |
| official | no formal notice yet |
| carpenter | expected timber has not arrived |
| buyer in another district | may know nothing |
Each actor has partial knowledge.
---
## 3. Why The Differences Matter
Different knowledge creates different actions.
The towman may seek rope.
The porter may repeat a vague delay rumor.
The trader may reserve alternative timber.
The warehouse clerk may release storage.
The cart owner may demand waiting pay.
The carpenter may bid for substitute material.
No one needs the entire truth to act.
---
<!-- /chunk -->
---
<!-- chunk:
id: CORPUS-0009::02::uncertainty_behavior
source_file: CORPUS-0009-same-event-different-knowledge.md
repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0009-same-event-different-knowledge.md
domain: commerce
layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
document_id: CORPUS-0009
document_title: Same Event, Different Knowledge
section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. Hidden True Event + 2. Actor Knowledge States ...
chunk_role: uncertainty_behavior
concept_tags:
- event
- knowledge
- uncertainty_behavior
- uncertainty
knowledge_state:
- reported
- known_state
- inferred
actors: []
-->
## 0. Scenario
A timber barge is delayed near Ostia.
The event is one event.
But no single actor automatically knows the whole event.
A porter, trader, clerk, official, buyer, and cart owner may each know a different part.
The model must not treat “the city knows” as one shared knowledge state.
---
## 1. Hidden True Event
The simulation true state:
| Hidden True State | Value |
|---|---|
| Event | timber barge delayed |
| Cause | towline broke |
| Cargo | dry beam stock and wheel blanks |
| Delay | one day minimum |
| Damage | minor |
| Destination buyers | two carpentry shops |
| Official notice | not yet filed |
The true state exists.
Most actors know only fragments.
---
## 2. Actor Knowledge States
| Actor | What They Know |
|---|---|
| towman | towline broke; delay likely one day |
| porter | a timber barge is late |
| trader | timber buyers are asking questions |
| warehouse clerk | reserved storage may remain empty today |
| cart owner | return load may be delayed |
| official | no formal notice yet |
| carpenter | expected timber has not arrived |
| buyer in another district | may know nothing |
Each actor has partial knowledge.
---
## 4. Incorrect Model Behavior
The model should not:
- assume all actors know the same facts
- treat a city as one mind
- give the trader official knowledge without a path
- assume formal notice arrives before street knowledge
- assume partial knowledge is useless
- ignore actor position and access
- collapse true event into public knowledge
---
## 5. Correct Model Behavior
The model should track:
| Category | Meaning |
|---|---|
| true_event_state | what actually happened |
| actor_observed_signal | what each actor directly observes |
| actor_report | what each actor says or repeats |
| actor_inference | what each actor believes follows |
| confidence | how strongly each actor trusts the information |
| action | what each actor does from partial knowledge |
Knowledge should be actor-specific.
---
## 6. Decision Example
A trader hears from a porter:
> Timber is late.
This is vague.
He then sees two carpenters near the quay asking about substitutes.
That visible behavior increases confidence that the delay matters.
He still does not know:
- cause of delay
- cargo condition
- duration of delay
- whether the timber is already reserved
- whether alternate supply exists
The trader may still act before full knowledge.
---
## 7. Same Event, Different Profits
Different actors may benefit from different fragments:
| Actor | Possible Use |
|---|---|
| rope seller | sells replacement towline |
| cart owner | charges waiting time |
| trader | sources substitute timber |
| carpenter | secures scarce material early |
| clerk | rents storage elsewhere |
| creditor | checks exposed contractor |
The same event creates different opportunities because knowledge differs.
---
## 8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used
This example uses:
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0011-status-changes-access`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions`
- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0007-rival-buys-the-cart-space`
- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0011-round-trip-cart-value`
- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0005-hidden-true-state-vs-known-state`
---
## 9. Success Condition
If the model stops treating an event as equally known by all actors and starts tracking who knows which fragment, from what position, and with what confidence, this file is functioning correctly.
<!-- /chunk -->
---

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# CORPUS-0010
## Information Can Be Withheld
### Status: Training Corpus Seed
### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
### Purpose: Teach that actors may delay, conceal, or selectively reveal information because information itself has economic value
### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0010-information-can-be-withheld.md
---
<!-- chunk:
id: CORPUS-0010::01::evidence_structure
source_file: CORPUS-0010-information-can-be-withheld.md
repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0010-information-can-be-withheld.md
domain: commerce
layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
document_id: CORPUS-0010
document_title: Information Can Be Withheld
section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. Known Facts + 2. Why Information Is Withheld ...
chunk_role: evidence_structure
concept_tags:
- information
- withheld
- evidence_structure
- uncertainty
knowledge_state:
- reported
- known_state
- hidden_true_state
actors: []
-->
## 0. Scenario
A trader in Ostia asks whether a timber convoy from Capua is delayed.
A warehouse clerk knows the convoy is late.
The clerk does not immediately say so.
The clerk may withhold the information because revealing it changes prices, bargaining position, storage demand, or creditor behavior.
Information is not automatically shared merely because it is known.
---
## 1. Known Facts
| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Location | Ostia |
| Event | timber convoy delayed |
| Actor with knowledge | warehouse clerk |
| Actor seeking knowledge | trader |
| Public knowledge | unclear |
| Clerk motive | preserve advantage or avoid consequence |
| Trader confidence | incomplete |
The clerk's silence is itself a signal, but not a complete fact.
---
## 2. Why Information Is Withheld
An actor may withhold information to:
- buy before prices rise
- sell before prices fall
- avoid blame
- delay creditors
- preserve queue position
- protect a patron
- avoid panic
- negotiate better terms
- prevent rivals from acting
- wait until his own obligation is secure
Withheld information is often more valuable than spoken information.
---
## 3. Forms Of Withholding
Information may be withheld through:
| Form | Description |
|---|---|
| silence | actor simply does not answer |
| delay | answer comes after the useful window narrows |
| partial truth | only safe details are shared |
| misdirection | attention is shifted to another fact |
| denial | actor says there is no issue |
| vague statement | actor speaks without usable specificity |
| selective audience | actor tells one person but not another |
Withholding does not always require a false statement.
---
<!-- /chunk -->
---
<!-- chunk:
id: CORPUS-0010::02::uncertainty_behavior
source_file: CORPUS-0010-information-can-be-withheld.md
repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0010-information-can-be-withheld.md
domain: commerce
layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
document_id: CORPUS-0010
document_title: Information Can Be Withheld
section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. Known Facts + 2. Why Information Is Withheld ...
chunk_role: uncertainty_behavior
concept_tags:
- information
- withheld
- uncertainty_behavior
- uncertainty
knowledge_state:
- reported
- known_state
- inferred
actors: []
-->
## 0. Scenario
A trader in Ostia asks whether a timber convoy from Capua is delayed.
A warehouse clerk knows the convoy is late.
The clerk does not immediately say so.
The clerk may withhold the information because revealing it changes prices, bargaining position, storage demand, or creditor behavior.
Information is not automatically shared merely because it is known.
---
## 1. Known Facts
| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Location | Ostia |
| Event | timber convoy delayed |
| Actor with knowledge | warehouse clerk |
| Actor seeking knowledge | trader |
| Public knowledge | unclear |
| Clerk motive | preserve advantage or avoid consequence |
| Trader confidence | incomplete |
The clerk's silence is itself a signal, but not a complete fact.
---
## 2. Why Information Is Withheld
An actor may withhold information to:
- buy before prices rise
- sell before prices fall
- avoid blame
- delay creditors
- preserve queue position
- protect a patron
- avoid panic
- negotiate better terms
- prevent rivals from acting
- wait until his own obligation is secure
Withheld information is often more valuable than spoken information.
---
## 4. Incorrect Model Behavior
The model should not:
- assume every informed actor speaks honestly and immediately
- treat absence of report as absence of event
- assume silence means ignorance
- assume withholding always proves bad intent
- expose hidden facts because one actor knows them
- ignore who benefits if information remains limited
- treat information as costless once discovered
---
## 5. Correct Model Behavior
The model should separate:
| Category | Meaning |
|---|---|
| known_by_actor | who knows the fact |
| public_knowledge | whether the wider market knows |
| withheld_from | who is not told |
| motive_to_withhold | why the fact is not shared |
| signal_of_withholding | behavior suggesting concealment or delay |
| effect_of_withholding | price, access, timing, or trust changes |
| discovery_path | how another actor might learn it |
Information should have possession and movement, like goods.
---
## 6. Example: Clerk Withholds Timber Delay
The clerk knows the timber convoy is delayed.
If he reveals it immediately:
- carpenters seek substitutes
- storage plans change
- transport prices may rise
- creditors may press exposed contractors
If he withholds it briefly:
- his associate may buy substitute stock first
- storage arrangements may be renegotiated
- the warehouse avoids public blame until later
The delay in speech changes economic conditions.
---
## 7. How The Trader May Respond
The trader may:
- ask a second clerk
- watch cart movements
- compare storage behavior
- question porters indirectly
- test prices for substitute timber
- offer payment for reliable notice
- act on the possibility that information is being withheld
- avoid overcommitting until evidence improves
The trader does not need proof of withholding to treat silence as meaningful.
---
## 8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used
This example uses:
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0011-status-changes-access`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0020-posture-changes-by-audience`
- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price`
- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0005-hidden-true-state-vs-known-state`
- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0009-same-event-different-knowledge`
---
## 9. Success Condition
If the model stops assuming known information is automatically shared and starts tracking who holds information, who receives it, who is denied it, and what changes while it is withheld, this file is functioning correctly.
<!-- /chunk -->
---

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# CORPUS-0011
## Quality Uncertainty
### Status: Training Corpus Seed
### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
### Purpose: Teach that a reported good may exist, but its quality, condition, suitability, or usable quantity may remain uncertain until inspected or used
### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0011-quality-uncertainty.md
---
<!-- chunk:
id: CORPUS-0011::01::evidence_structure
source_file: CORPUS-0011-quality-uncertainty.md
repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0011-quality-uncertainty.md
domain: commerce
layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
document_id: CORPUS-0011
document_title: Quality Uncertainty
section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. Report Received + 2. Known Facts ...
chunk_role: evidence_structure
concept_tags:
- quality
- uncertainty
- evidence_structure
knowledge_state:
- reported
- known_state
- hidden_true_state
actors: []
-->
## 0. Scenario
A trader in Ostia hears that timber is available for sale.
The report is true.
The timber exists.
But the trader does not yet know whether the timber is dry, straight, strong, damaged, green, warped, or suitable for the intended buyer in Capua.
The uncertainty is not whether the good exists.
The uncertainty is whether the good can serve the intended use.
---
## 1. Report Received
A seller says:
> I have timber ready for shipment.
This statement may be true.
But it does not answer:
- what kind of timber?
- how dry is it?
- how straight is it?
- what length and thickness?
- was it stored well?
- does it fit the buyer's need?
- how much is actually usable?
Existence is not quality.
---
## 2. Known Facts
| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Location | Ostia |
| Good | timber |
| Reported availability | yes |
| Intended destination | Capua |
| Intended use | cart repair stock |
| Timber quality | unknown |
| Usable quantity | unknown |
| Inspection status | not inspected |
The trader knows that timber exists.
He does not yet know whether it is the right timber.
---
## 3. Why Quality Matters
Quality changes value.
Timber that is dry and straight may be useful for cart repair.
Timber that is green, warped, or split may be worth less.
The same reported quantity can produce different outcomes:
| True Quality | Effect |
|---|---|
| dry and straight | suitable for higher-value use |
| green | may require waiting or sell lower |
| warped | may not fit repair demand |
| partially damaged | usable quantity lower than claimed |
| mixed stock | sorting cost required |
A good's name does not define its usable value.
---
<!-- /chunk -->
---
<!-- chunk:
id: CORPUS-0011::02::truth_variants
source_file: CORPUS-0011-quality-uncertainty.md
repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0011-quality-uncertainty.md
domain: commerce
layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
document_id: CORPUS-0011
document_title: Quality Uncertainty
section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. Report Received + 2. Known Facts ...
chunk_role: truth_variants
concept_tags:
- quality
- uncertainty
- truth_variants
knowledge_state:
- reported
- known_state
- hidden_true_state
actors: []
-->
## 0. Scenario
A trader in Ostia hears that timber is available for sale.
The report is true.
The timber exists.
But the trader does not yet know whether the timber is dry, straight, strong, damaged, green, warped, or suitable for the intended buyer in Capua.
The uncertainty is not whether the good exists.
The uncertainty is whether the good can serve the intended use.
---
## 1. Report Received
A seller says:
> I have timber ready for shipment.
This statement may be true.
But it does not answer:
- what kind of timber?
- how dry is it?
- how straight is it?
- what length and thickness?
- was it stored well?
- does it fit the buyer's need?
- how much is actually usable?
Existence is not quality.
---
## 2. Known Facts
| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Location | Ostia |
| Good | timber |
| Reported availability | yes |
| Intended destination | Capua |
| Intended use | cart repair stock |
| Timber quality | unknown |
| Usable quantity | unknown |
| Inspection status | not inspected |
The trader knows that timber exists.
He does not yet know whether it is the right timber.
---
## 4. Arithmetic Variants
### Variant A — Suitable Timber
```text
sale value = 48 asses
total cost = 40 asses
result = 8 asses profit
```
### Variant B — Mixed Quality
Only part of the timber fits the repair use.
```text
sale value = 42 asses
total cost = 40 asses
result = 2 asses profit
```
### Variant C — Unsuitable Timber
The timber sells only for ordinary use.
```text
sale value = 34 asses
total cost = 40 asses
result = 6 asses loss
```
The report was true in all three variants.
The quality changed the outcome.
---
<!-- /chunk -->
---
<!-- chunk:
id: CORPUS-0011::03::uncertainty_behavior
source_file: CORPUS-0011-quality-uncertainty.md
repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0011-quality-uncertainty.md
domain: commerce
layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
document_id: CORPUS-0011
document_title: Quality Uncertainty
section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. Report Received + 2. Known Facts ...
chunk_role: uncertainty_behavior
concept_tags:
- quality
- uncertainty
- uncertainty_behavior
knowledge_state:
- reported
- known_state
- inferred
actors: []
-->
## 0. Scenario
A trader in Ostia hears that timber is available for sale.
The report is true.
The timber exists.
But the trader does not yet know whether the timber is dry, straight, strong, damaged, green, warped, or suitable for the intended buyer in Capua.
The uncertainty is not whether the good exists.
The uncertainty is whether the good can serve the intended use.
---
## 1. Report Received
A seller says:
> I have timber ready for shipment.
This statement may be true.
But it does not answer:
- what kind of timber?
- how dry is it?
- how straight is it?
- what length and thickness?
- was it stored well?
- does it fit the buyer's need?
- how much is actually usable?
Existence is not quality.
---
## 2. Known Facts
| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Location | Ostia |
| Good | timber |
| Reported availability | yes |
| Intended destination | Capua |
| Intended use | cart repair stock |
| Timber quality | unknown |
| Usable quantity | unknown |
| Inspection status | not inspected |
The trader knows that timber exists.
He does not yet know whether it is the right timber.
---
## 5. Correct Model Behavior
The model should separate:
| Category | Meaning |
|---|---|
| good_exists | whether the good is present |
| stated_quality | what seller claims |
| inspected_quality | what buyer or agent verifies |
| intended_use | what the buyer wants it for |
| suitability | whether quality fits intended use |
| usable_quantity | amount that can actually serve the use |
| quality_discount | value reduction from defects or mismatch |
The model should not assume a reported good is suitable merely because it exists.
---
## 6. Incorrect Model Behavior
The model should not:
- treat all timber as identical
- assume seller claim equals true quality
- ignore storage condition
- ignore intended use
- ignore sorting cost
- ignore unusable portion
- calculate profit before suitability is known
- treat quality uncertainty as the same as price uncertainty
Price may be known while quality remains uncertain.
Quality may be known while price remains uncertain.
---
## 7. Decision Options
The trader may:
- inspect the timber personally
- send a trusted carpenter
- demand lower price for uncertainty
- buy only after sorting
- buy a smaller quantity
- accept risk for a better price
- reject the cargo if suitability matters too much
- redirect unsuitable timber to a lower-value use
Quality uncertainty can be managed, but not ignored.
---
## 8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used
This example uses:
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0004-cost-includes-more-than-purchase-price`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0015-materials-can-change-value-through-use`
- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0008-material-redirection-timber`
- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0003-visible-signal-vs-spoken-claim`
- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0005-hidden-true-state-vs-known-state`
- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0006-confirmation-has-a-cost`
---
## 9. Success Condition
If the model sees that a good exists and still asks whether its quality, condition, usable quantity, and suitability match the intended use, this file is functioning correctly.
<!-- /chunk -->
---

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# CORPUS-0012
## Settlement Reveals Truth
### Status: Training Corpus Seed
### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
### Purpose: Teach that the full truth of a venture is often revealed only when sale, payment, delivery, and obligations settle
### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0012-settlement-reveals-truth.md
---
<!-- chunk:
id: CORPUS-0012::01::evidence_structure
source_file: CORPUS-0012-settlement-reveals-truth.md
repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0012-settlement-reveals-truth.md
domain: commerce
layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
document_id: CORPUS-0012
document_title: Settlement Reveals Truth
section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. Pre-Settlement State + 2. Hidden Unknowns ...
chunk_role: evidence_structure
concept_tags:
- settlement
- reveals
- truth
- evidence_structure
- uncertainty
knowledge_state:
- reported
- known_state
- hidden_true_state
actors: []
-->
## 0. Scenario
A trader in Ostia sends oil to Capua.
Before settlement, the trader has reports, expectations, promises, and estimates.
He does not yet know the final truth of the venture.
The truth becomes clear only when:
- goods arrive
- quality is accepted or rejected
- sale price is agreed
- payment is made
- costs are counted
- obligations are fulfilled or fail
Settlement reveals the outcome.
---
## 1. Pre-Settlement State
Before settlement, the trader believes:
| Belief | Value |
|---|---:|
| Expected sale price | 22 asses |
| Expected total cost | 16 asses |
| Expected profit | 6 asses |
This is an expectation.
It is not yet the venture's final truth.
---
## 2. Hidden Unknowns
Before settlement, the trader may not know:
- whether the buyer still wants the oil
- whether the buyer can pay
- whether the oil arrived intact
- whether handling cost increased
- whether the reported price remains current
- whether the buyer disputes quality
- whether a rival has changed the market
- whether some obligation remains unpaid
These unknowns are resolved only through completion.
---
## 3. Settlement Event
At settlement, the actual values become known:
| Final Value | Result |
|---|---:|
| Actual sale price | 18 asses |
| Actual total cost | 17 asses |
| Final arithmetic outcome | 1 as profit |
The expected profit was 6 asses.
The final profit is 1 as.
The venture was still profitable, but much less than expected.
---
## 4. Why Settlement Matters
Reports and estimates guide action.
Settlement resolves outcome.
Before settlement:
```text
expected_profit = uncertain
```
After settlement:
```text
actual_profit = sale_value - total_cost
```
The account becomes fixed only when final values are known.
---
## 5. Partial Settlement
Settlement may happen in stages.
Example:
| Stage | Status |
|---|---|
| goods delivered | complete |
| buyer accepts quality | complete |
| buyer pays half | partial |
| remaining payment promised | unsettled |
| cart driver paid | complete |
| seller repayment | unsettled |
A venture can appear complete while some obligations remain open.
The model must distinguish physical delivery from full settlement.
---
## 6. Disputed Settlement
Settlement may reveal disagreement.
Examples:
- buyer says the oil is lower quality
- buyer claims less quantity arrived
- seller demands earlier payment
- cart driver adds waiting cost
- warehouse keeper claims unpaid storage
- witness remembers terms differently
In these cases, settlement does not simply calculate.
It exposes a dispute that must be resolved before the final outcome is stable.
---
<!-- /chunk -->
---
<!-- chunk:
id: CORPUS-0012::02::uncertainty_behavior
source_file: CORPUS-0012-settlement-reveals-truth.md
repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0012-settlement-reveals-truth.md
domain: commerce
layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
document_id: CORPUS-0012
document_title: Settlement Reveals Truth
section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. Pre-Settlement State + 2. Hidden Unknowns ...
chunk_role: uncertainty_behavior
concept_tags:
- settlement
- reveals
- truth
- uncertainty_behavior
- uncertainty
knowledge_state:
- reported
- known_state
- inferred
actors: []
-->
## 0. Scenario
A trader in Ostia sends oil to Capua.
Before settlement, the trader has reports, expectations, promises, and estimates.
He does not yet know the final truth of the venture.
The truth becomes clear only when:
- goods arrive
- quality is accepted or rejected
- sale price is agreed
- payment is made
- costs are counted
- obligations are fulfilled or fail
Settlement reveals the outcome.
---
## 1. Pre-Settlement State
Before settlement, the trader believes:
| Belief | Value |
|---|---:|
| Expected sale price | 22 asses |
| Expected total cost | 16 asses |
| Expected profit | 6 asses |
This is an expectation.
It is not yet the venture's final truth.
---
## 2. Hidden Unknowns
Before settlement, the trader may not know:
- whether the buyer still wants the oil
- whether the buyer can pay
- whether the oil arrived intact
- whether handling cost increased
- whether the reported price remains current
- whether the buyer disputes quality
- whether a rival has changed the market
- whether some obligation remains unpaid
These unknowns are resolved only through completion.
---
## 7. Correct Model Behavior
The model should separate:
| Category | Meaning |
|---|---|
| expected_outcome | estimate before completion |
| delivery_state | whether goods arrived |
| acceptance_state | whether goods were accepted |
| payment_state | whether payment was made |
| obligation_state | whether related duties are fulfilled |
| dispute_state | whether terms are challenged |
| final_arithmetic | outcome after settlement values are known |
The venture is not fully resolved until settlement is complete.
---
## 8. Incorrect Model Behavior
The model should not:
- treat expected profit as final profit
- treat delivery as full settlement
- ignore unpaid obligations
- ignore partial payment
- ignore buyer refusal
- ignore quality dispute
- ignore late-added costs
- calculate final outcome before all settlement values are known
---
## 9. Example Resolution Variants
### Variant A — Clean Settlement
```text
sale value = 22 asses
total cost = 16 asses
result = 6 asses profit
```
The venture resolves as expected.
### Variant B — Reduced Sale Price
```text
sale value = 18 asses
total cost = 17 asses
result = 1 as profit
```
The venture succeeds narrowly.
### Variant C — Unpaid Buyer
```text
sale value agreed = 22 asses
cash received = 10 asses
remaining claim = 12 asses
settlement = incomplete
```
The trader has not yet realized full value.
### Variant D — Disputed Quality
```text
expected sale value = 22 asses
buyer offer after dispute = 15 asses
total cost = 16 asses
result if accepted = 1 as loss
```
The dispute changes the possible settlement.
---
## 10. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used
This example uses:
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0004-cost-includes-more-than-purchase-price`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0005-profit-is-sale-minus-total-cost`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0010-credit-depends-on-trust`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss`
- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0003-arithmetic-resolves-the-venture`
- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0009-credit-allows-action-without-coin`
- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0005-hidden-true-state-vs-known-state`
- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0011-quality-uncertainty`
---
## 11. Success Condition
If the model stops treating expectation, delivery, and agreement as final outcome, and starts waiting for settlement of payment, costs, quality, and obligations before declaring the venture resolved, this file is functioning correctly.
<!-- /chunk -->
---

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# CORPUS-0013
## Military Demand Precedes Confirmation
### Status: Training Corpus Seed
### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
### Purpose: Teach that army or garrison activity may affect supplies before civilians know the official reason
### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0013-military-demand-precedes-confirmation.md
---
<!-- chunk:
id: CORPUS-0013::01::evidence_structure
source_file: CORPUS-0013-military-demand-precedes-confirmation.md
repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0013-military-demand-precedes-confirmation.md
domain: commerce
layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
document_id: CORPUS-0013
document_title: Military Demand Precedes Confirmation
section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. Visible Signals + 2. Hidden True State ...
chunk_role: evidence_structure
concept_tags:
- military
- demand
- precedes
- confirmation
- evidence_structure
- uncertainty
knowledge_state:
- reported
- known_state
- hidden_true_state
actors: []
-->
## 0. Scenario
A trader in Ostia notices that fodder prices are rising, cart space is harder to reserve, and smiths are receiving unusual orders.
No official announcement has been made.
A rumor says a nearby garrison may be preparing movement, reinforcement, or supply expansion.
The trader does not yet know whether the rumor is true.
But the market is already changing.
---
## 1. Visible Signals
The trader observes:
- muleteers asking higher rates
- fodder sellers holding back stock
- cart owners refusing casual hire
- smiths buying iron and charcoal early
- warehouse clerks asking about dry storage
- grain dealers becoming less flexible
- road talk increasing near the gate
None of these signals proves military movement alone.
Together, they suggest organized demand may be forming.
---
## 2. Hidden True State
Possible true states:
| Hidden True State | Meaning |
|---|---|
| routine resupply | normal garrison provisioning |
| temporary drill | short-term local demand |
| unit transfer | carts, fodder, food, and tools needed |
| frontier preparation | larger and longer supply pressure |
| false rumor | market reaction based on misread signals |
| private contractor order | non-military demand mistaken for military demand |
The trader sees effects before knowing cause.
---
## 3. Why Military Demand Matters
Military or garrison demand can affect ordinary markets because it may absorb:
- grain
- fodder
- carts
- draft animals
- repair labor
- tools
- leather
- rope
- timber
- oil and wine
- storage space
- road capacity
The army does not need to buy everything to affect prices.
It may change expectations simply by reserving capacity.
---
## 4. Arithmetic Example
A trader plans to send oil from Ostia to Capua.
Original estimate:
```text
purchase price = 10 asses
transport cost = 5 asses
other cost = 2 asses
expected sale value = 22 asses
expected result = 5 asses profit
```
After suspected military demand:
```text
purchase price = 10 asses
transport cost = 8 asses
other cost = 2 asses
expected sale value = 22 asses
expected result = 2 asses profit
```
The destination price did not change.
The transport market changed.
---
## 5. Confirmation Problem
The trader may want to confirm the cause.
But confirmation may be slow.
Possible confirmation paths:
- ask a veteran contact
- watch cart reservations
- speak with a fodder seller
- observe warehouse requests
- listen at the baths
- compare gate traffic
- wait for official notice
By the time confirmation arrives, transport and supplies may already be committed.
---
<!-- /chunk -->
---
<!-- chunk:
id: CORPUS-0013::02::uncertainty_behavior
source_file: CORPUS-0013-military-demand-precedes-confirmation.md
repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0013-military-demand-precedes-confirmation.md
domain: commerce
layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
document_id: CORPUS-0013
document_title: Military Demand Precedes Confirmation
section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. Visible Signals + 2. Hidden True State ...
chunk_role: uncertainty_behavior
concept_tags:
- military
- demand
- precedes
- confirmation
- uncertainty_behavior
- uncertainty
knowledge_state:
- reported
- known_state
- inferred
actors: []
-->
## 0. Scenario
A trader in Ostia notices that fodder prices are rising, cart space is harder to reserve, and smiths are receiving unusual orders.
No official announcement has been made.
A rumor says a nearby garrison may be preparing movement, reinforcement, or supply expansion.
The trader does not yet know whether the rumor is true.
But the market is already changing.
---
## 1. Visible Signals
The trader observes:
- muleteers asking higher rates
- fodder sellers holding back stock
- cart owners refusing casual hire
- smiths buying iron and charcoal early
- warehouse clerks asking about dry storage
- grain dealers becoming less flexible
- road talk increasing near the gate
None of these signals proves military movement alone.
Together, they suggest organized demand may be forming.
---
## 2. Hidden True State
Possible true states:
| Hidden True State | Meaning |
|---|---|
| routine resupply | normal garrison provisioning |
| temporary drill | short-term local demand |
| unit transfer | carts, fodder, food, and tools needed |
| frontier preparation | larger and longer supply pressure |
| false rumor | market reaction based on misread signals |
| private contractor order | non-military demand mistaken for military demand |
The trader sees effects before knowing cause.
---
## 6. Correct Model Behavior
The model should separate:
| Category | Meaning |
|---|---|
| visible_market_effect | what has already changed |
| rumored_cause | what actors say explains it |
| true_cause | hidden simulation state |
| affected_inputs | goods and services under pressure |
| confirmation_cost | cost of learning more |
| action_window | time before market adjusts further |
The model should recognize that effects may be real even before the cause is confirmed.
---
## 7. Incorrect Model Behavior
The model should not:
- wait for official confirmation before allowing market effects
- assume military rumor is true because prices moved
- assume price movement has only one cause
- ignore transport, fodder, and labor effects
- treat army demand as affecting only weapons
- assume civilians know the official reason immediately
- ignore ordinary traders reacting to suspected demand
---
## 8. Decision Options
The trader may:
- reserve cart space before rates rise further
- avoid ventures dependent on scarce transport
- buy fodder early
- sell into rising supply pressure
- seek substitute routes
- reduce cargo size
- wait for confirmation and accept timing loss
- investigate through contacts with military or transport knowledge
Each choice trades uncertainty against timing.
---
## 9. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used
This example uses:
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0002-goods-have-local-prices`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0004-cost-includes-more-than-purchase-price`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions`
- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0007-rival-buys-the-cart-space`
- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0011-round-trip-cart-value`
- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0003-visible-signal-vs-spoken-claim`
- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0006-confirmation-has-a-cost`
- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0007-acting-before-certainty`
---
## 10. Success Condition
If the model sees rising fodder, transport, storage, or tool pressure and asks whether organized demand may be forming before official confirmation, this file is functioning correctly.
<!-- /chunk -->
---