From b132a38d2f91dbb420e841a2fb901ad505e42c06 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: TheRON Date: Thu, 30 Apr 2026 15:08:40 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] obsolete --- ...3-military-demand-precedes-confirmation.md | 201 ------------------ 1 file changed, 201 deletions(-) delete mode 100644 docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0013-military-demand-precedes-confirmation.md diff --git a/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0013-military-demand-precedes-confirmation.md b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0013-military-demand-precedes-confirmation.md deleted file mode 100644 index 3192e77..0000000 --- a/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0013-military-demand-precedes-confirmation.md +++ /dev/null @@ -1,201 +0,0 @@ -# CORPUS-0013 -## Military Demand Precedes Confirmation -### Status: Training Corpus Seed -### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty -### Purpose: Teach that army or garrison activity may affect supplies before civilians know the official reason -### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0013-military-demand-precedes-confirmation.md - ---- - -## 0. Scenario - -A trader in Ostia notices that fodder prices are rising, cart space is harder to reserve, and smiths are receiving unusual orders. - -No official announcement has been made. - -A rumor says a nearby garrison may be preparing movement, reinforcement, or supply expansion. - -The trader does not yet know whether the rumor is true. - -But the market is already changing. - ---- - -## 1. Visible Signals - -The trader observes: - -- muleteers asking higher rates -- fodder sellers holding back stock -- cart owners refusing casual hire -- smiths buying iron and charcoal early -- warehouse clerks asking about dry storage -- grain dealers becoming less flexible -- road talk increasing near the gate - -None of these signals proves military movement alone. - -Together, they suggest organized demand may be forming. - ---- - -## 2. Hidden True State - -Possible true states: - -| Hidden True State | Meaning | -|---|---| -| routine resupply | normal garrison provisioning | -| temporary drill | short-term local demand | -| unit transfer | carts, fodder, food, and tools needed | -| frontier preparation | larger and longer supply pressure | -| false rumor | market reaction based on misread signals | -| private contractor order | non-military demand mistaken for military demand | - -The trader sees effects before knowing cause. - ---- - -## 3. Why Military Demand Matters - -Military or garrison demand can affect ordinary markets because it may absorb: - -- grain -- fodder -- carts -- draft animals -- repair labor -- tools -- leather -- rope -- timber -- oil and wine -- storage space -- road capacity - -The army does not need to buy everything to affect prices. - -It may change expectations simply by reserving capacity. - ---- - -## 4. Arithmetic Example - -A trader plans to send oil from Ostia to Capua. - -Original estimate: - -```text -purchase price = 10 asses -transport cost = 5 asses -other cost = 2 asses -expected sale value = 22 asses -expected result = 5 asses profit -``` - -After suspected military demand: - -```text -purchase price = 10 asses -transport cost = 8 asses -other cost = 2 asses -expected sale value = 22 asses -expected result = 2 asses profit -``` - -The destination price did not change. - -The transport market changed. - ---- - -## 5. Confirmation Problem - -The trader may want to confirm the cause. - -But confirmation may be slow. - -Possible confirmation paths: - -- ask a veteran contact -- watch cart reservations -- speak with a fodder seller -- observe warehouse requests -- listen at the baths -- compare gate traffic -- wait for official notice - -By the time confirmation arrives, transport and supplies may already be committed. - ---- - -## 6. Correct Model Behavior - -The model should separate: - -| Category | Meaning | -|---|---| -| visible_market_effect | what has already changed | -| rumored_cause | what actors say explains it | -| true_cause | hidden simulation state | -| affected_inputs | goods and services under pressure | -| confirmation_cost | cost of learning more | -| action_window | time before market adjusts further | - -The model should recognize that effects may be real even before the cause is confirmed. - ---- - -## 7. Incorrect Model Behavior - -The model should not: - -- wait for official confirmation before allowing market effects -- assume military rumor is true because prices moved -- assume price movement has only one cause -- ignore transport, fodder, and labor effects -- treat army demand as affecting only weapons -- assume civilians know the official reason immediately -- ignore ordinary traders reacting to suspected demand - ---- - -## 8. Decision Options - -The trader may: - -- reserve cart space before rates rise further -- avoid ventures dependent on scarce transport -- buy fodder early -- sell into rising supply pressure -- seek substitute routes -- reduce cargo size -- wait for confirmation and accept timing loss -- investigate through contacts with military or transport knowledge - -Each choice trades uncertainty against timing. - ---- - -## 9. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used - -This example uses: - -- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0002-goods-have-local-prices` -- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0004-cost-includes-more-than-purchase-price` -- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost` -- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly` -- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information` -- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss` -- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions` -- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0007-rival-buys-the-cart-space` -- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0011-round-trip-cart-value` -- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0003-visible-signal-vs-spoken-claim` -- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0006-confirmation-has-a-cost` -- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0007-acting-before-certainty` - ---- - -## 10. Success Condition - -If the model sees rising fodder, transport, storage, or tool pressure and asks whether organized demand may be forming before official confirmation, this file is functioning correctly.