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docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0001-oil-ostia-to-capua-basic-venture.md

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+# CORPUS-0001
+## Oil From Ostia To Capua: Basic Venture
+### Status: Training Corpus Seed
+### Layer: Layer_1--Worked_Examples
+### Purpose: Teach a first worked venture by combining place, local price, total cost, profit, delay, and risk
+### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0001-oil-ostia-to-capua-basic-venture.md
+
+---
+
+## 0. Scenario
+
+A trader in Ostia considers sending oil to Capua.
+
+He has heard that oil sells for more in Capua than in Ostia.
+
+This is not enough to prove profit.
+
+The trader must compare local prices, total costs, delay, and risk before deciding.
+
+---
+
+## 1. Known Facts
+
+| Fact | Value |
+|---|---:|
+| Origin | Ostia |
+| Destination | Capua |
+| Good | oil |
+| Purchase price in Ostia | 10 asses |
+| Expected sale price in Capua | 18 asses |
+| Porterage and handling | 2 asses |
+| Cart share | 3 asses |
+| Storage before departure | 1 as |
+| Handling at Capua | 1 as |
+
+---
+
+## 2. First Incorrect Calculation
+
+A weak model may calculate:
+
+```text
+18 - 10 = 8 asses profit
+```
+
+This is wrong because it subtracts only purchase price.
+
+It ignores movement, storage, and handling.
+
+---
+
+## 3. Total Cost Calculation
+
+Total cost includes every cost required to make the oil available for sale in Capua.
+
+```text
+purchase price:          10 asses
+porterage and handling:   2 asses
+cart share:               3 asses
+storage:                  1 as
+Capua handling:           1 as
+--------------------------------
+total cost:              17 asses
+```
+
+---
+
+## 4. Actual Profit Calculation
+
+```text
+sale value - total cost = profit
+18 asses - 17 asses = 1 as profit
+```
+
+The venture is profitable, but only barely.
+
+A one-as profit may not justify the risk unless the trader has no better option or expects future benefit.
+
+---
+
+## 5. Unknowns
+
+The trader still does not know:
+
+- whether the Capua price is current
+- whether a rival shipment will arrive first
+- whether the cart leaves on time
+- whether the oil leaks or breaks
+- whether storage costs rise
+- whether the buyer can pay
+- whether the trader misses a better opportunity
+
+The arithmetic is only the beginning.
+
+---
+
+## 6. Risk Variants
+
+### Variant A — Delay
+
+If the cart is delayed and storage rises by 2 asses:
+
+```text
+new total cost = 19 asses
+sale value = 18 asses
+result = 1 as loss
+```
+
+### Variant B — Rival Arrival
+
+If a rival arrives first and Capua buyers lower offers to 15 asses:
+
+```text
+sale value = 15 asses
+total cost = 17 asses
+result = 2 asses loss
+```
+
+### Variant C — Better Sale Price
+
+If demand rises and the oil sells for 22 asses:
+
+```text
+sale value = 22 asses
+total cost = 17 asses
+result = 5 asses profit
+```
+
+---
+
+## 7. Correct Model Behavior
+
+The model should reason:
+
+- trade requires Ostia and Capua
+- the two cities may have different local prices
+- purchase price is not total cost
+- profit is sale value minus total cost
+- delay can erase profit
+- rival action can change destination price
+- expected profit is not actual profit until settlement
+
+---
+
+## 8. Incorrect Model Behavior
+
+The model should not:
+
+- assume one universal oil price
+- calculate profit from purchase price alone
+- ignore cart, porterage, storage, or handling
+- treat the expected Capua price as certain
+- assume the opportunity remains open indefinitely
+- ignore rival traders
+- treat a barely profitable venture as safe
+
+---
+
+## 9. Layer-0 Concepts Used
+
+This example uses:
+
+- `CORPUS-0001-trade-requires-two-locations`
+- `CORPUS-0002-goods-have-local-prices`
+- `CORPUS-0004-cost-includes-more-than-purchase-price`
+- `CORPUS-0005-profit-is-sale-minus-total-cost`
+- `CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost`
+- `CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss`
+- `CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions`
+
+---
+
+## 10. Success Condition
+
+If the model sees a simple trade and automatically asks about location, total cost, timing, and risk before declaring profit, this file is functioning correctly.