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+# Scenario Index
+### TheRON — OTIVM / CIVICVS Scenario Library
+### Status: Living document — scenarios added as developed, never removed
+### Date: 2026-04-28
+
+---
+
+## 0. Canonical Structural Rule
+
+Every scenario in this library must satisfy all five of the following:
+
+1. **One visible signal** — something the participant can observe directly
+2. **One uncertain truth** — the real cause or state is hidden or contested
+3. **One hidden second-order effect** — the consequence that matters is not the obvious one
+4. **Six different readings** — each of the six cast perspectives interprets the event differently
+5. **No single obvious correct choice** — a participant who thinks they know the right answer has missed the point
+
+A scenario that fails any of these five tests is not yet complete.
+
+**The engine of the simulation is this:** the participant who stops asking
+"what happened?" and starts asking "whose need can I price, and when?" is
+thinking correctly. Every scenario is designed to force that transition.
+
+---
+
+## 1. Prologue
+
+The prologue is a special case — it is the only scenario every participant
+experiences identically. It precedes all other scenarios and governs
+background selection.
+
+| ID | Title | Token | Status |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| `SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0000` | The BALNEA Conversation | `balnea_conversation` | canonical |
+
+**Reference documents:**
+- `docs/scenarios/SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0000.md`
+- `docs/actors/CHARACTER-FRAMEWORK.md`
+- `docs/actors/BACKGROUND-0001` through `BACKGROUND-0006`
+- `docs/economy/CAST-OSTIA-0001.md`
+- `docs/dialogue/TOPIC-BALNEA-0001.md`
+
+---
+
+## 2. Founding Trilogy — Fire, Dependencies, Capital
+
+These three scenarios form a causal chain. They should be experienced in
+order where possible, as each compounds the effects of the previous.
+
+| ID | Title | Token | Status | Teaching |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| `SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0001` | The Bronze Forge Fire | `bronze_forge_fire` | canonical | second-order market logic |
+| `SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0002` | The Capuan Timber Yard Fire | `capuan_timber_yard_fire` | canonical | upstream choke-point logic |
+| `SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0003` | The FAENUS Offer | `faenus_offer` | canonical | capital without cargo |
+
+**Chain dependency:** `recent_scenario_0001 == true` modifies 0002.
+`recent_scenario_0001 or 0002 == true` increases opportunity in 0003.
+
+**Success condition arc:**
+- 0001: Stop asking "what burned?" Start asking "who now needs what, where, and when?"
+- 0002: Stop asking "what burned?" Start asking "what depended on it?"
+- 0003: Stop asking "what can I carry?" Start asking "whose need can I price?"
+
+---
+
+## 3. Tier A — Supply and Infrastructure Shocks
+
+High priority. These scenarios teach physical and logistical dependencies
+that are prerequisite to understanding the route parameter model.
+
+| ID | Title | Token | Status | Teaching |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| `SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0004` | The Warehouse Rat Panic | `warehouse_rat_panic` | planned | spoilage, storage trust, scarcity rumour, inspection fraud |
+| `SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0005` | The Missing Tax Collector | `missing_tax_collector` | planned | bureaucracy dependence, queue economics, corruption, procedural power |
+| `SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0006` | The Coin Shortage | `coin_shortage` | planned | credit vs cash, barter, discounting, debt notes, trust networks |
+| `SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0007` | The Sudden Rainstorm | `sudden_rainstorm` | planned | weather risk, infrastructure fragility, drainage geography, transport delay |
+| `SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0008` | The Sick Mule Market | `sick_mule_market` | planned | transport dependency, veterinary risk, replacement cost, cascading shortage |
+| `SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0009` | The Timber Auction | `timber_auction` | planned | bidding behaviour, storage capacity, future demand forecasting |
+| `SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0010` | The Fire Sale Estate | `fire_sale_estate` | planned | distressed assets, debt priority, insider knowledge, hidden defects |
+| `SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0011` | The Shipwreck Survivor | `shipwreck_survivor` | planned | insurance, salvage rights, truth vs fraud, distress pricing |
+
+---
+
+## 4. Tier B — Institutional and Political Events
+
+These scenarios teach the relationship between legal and political structure
+and commercial opportunity. They require cast members with IVS_ACCESSVS
+and AVCTORITAS parameters to respond differently from those without.
+
+| ID | Title | Token | Status | Teaching |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| `SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0012` | The Funeral of a Patron | `patron_funeral` | planned | patronage collapse, inheritance uncertainty, CLIENTELA network disruption |
+| `SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0013` | The New Edict Posted | `new_edict` | planned | law shocks markets, literacy advantage, compliance costs, loopholes |
+| `SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0014` | The Senator's Arrival | `senator_arrival` | planned | prestige demand, rapid procurement, temporary price spikes, elite access |
+| `SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0015` | The Temple Festival Week | `temple_festival` | planned | calendar economics, ritual demand, leisure spending, AVCTORITAS display |
+| `SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0016` | The Public Lawsuit | `public_lawsuit` | planned | witnesses, rhetoric, enforceability, legal cost vs settlement |
+| `SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0017` | The Dockside Brawl | `dockside_brawl` | planned | labour disruption, ethnic enclaves, security premiums, district reputation |
+| `SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0018` | The Counterfeit Scale | `counterfeit_scale` | planned | trust, measurement standards, enforcement, public scandal |
+
+---
+
+## 5. Tier C — Social Capital Events
+
+These scenarios teach AVCTORITAS, CLIENTELA, and FAMA as economic forces —
+not as background flavour but as resources that open and close commercial
+opportunities.
+
+| ID | Title | Token | Status | Teaching |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| `SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0019` | The Marriage Contract | `marriage_contract` | planned | dowry economics, alliance markets, AVCTORITAS transfer, household strategy |
+| `SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0020` | The Freedman Banquet Invitation | `freedman_banquet` | planned | status mobility, stigma, signalling, social markets |
+
+---
+
+## 6. Historical Reality Scenarios
+
+These scenarios are **internal instruments only — not player-facing content.**
+
+They exist to map the parameter schema for aspects of Roman life that the
+economic model cannot be honest without. Their purpose is schema definition,
+not gameplay. They are maintained in `docs/architecture/historical-reality-parameters.md`.
+
+These are not scenarios in the gameplay sense. They do not have hidden cause
+variants or replayability controls. They document parameter domains, affected
+existing parameters, and new parameters required. Academic sources are cited.
+
+| Domain | Document | Status |
+|---|---|---|
+| Enslaved labour | `docs/architecture/historical-reality-parameters.md` §1 | canonical |
+| Legal and status discrimination | `docs/architecture/historical-reality-parameters.md` §2 | canonical |
+| Commercial sex | `docs/architecture/historical-reality-parameters.md` §3 | canonical |
+| Public violence and the arena | `docs/architecture/historical-reality-parameters.md` §4 | canonical |
+
+**Design principle:** these domains are modelled as parameters and economic
+forces. The simulation does not editorialise. It models. The participant
+encounters these as the MERCATOR encounters them — as the texture of the
+world they operate in, not as moral choices presented for approval.
+
+---
+
+## 7. Future Scenario Domains — Not Yet Scoped
+
+These are identified needs, not committed scenarios. They will be developed
+when the simulation requires them.
+
+| Domain | Notes |
+|---|---|
+| Mesolithic scenarios | Parallel library for CIVICVS — foraging, seasonal movement, territorial negotiation, material exchange. Vocabulary from corpus development. |
+| Maritime scenarios | Open-sea ITINERA — NAUFRAGIVM probability, MARE CLAVSVM constraints, crew management, piracy. |
+| Multi-route scenarios | The MERCATOR managing simultaneous NEGOTIA on different routes — opportunity cost, personnel delegation, FACTOR trust. |
+| Seasonal arc scenarios | A sequence of scenarios spanning a full Roman agricultural and commercial year — spring opening, summer peak, autumn harvest, winter MARE CLAVSVM. |
+
+---
+
+## 8. Scenario Status Definitions
+
+| Status | Meaning |
+|---|---|
+| `canonical` | Fully developed, committed to repo, passes structural rule |
+| `planned` | Identified, listed, structural rule not yet applied |
+| `in_development` | Being drafted in current session |
+| `deferred` | Identified but blocked on dependencies |
+| `deprecated` | Superseded — retained for record, not for use |
+
+---
+
+## 9. Cross-Reference: Scenarios and Parameter Registry
+
+Every scenario exposes a subset of parameters from `docs/architecture/parameter-registry.md`.
+The mapping below shows which parameter domains each tier primarily activates.
+
+| Tier | Primary parameter domains |
+|---|---|
+| Prologue | All actor parameters, `background_drift`, `information_quality` |
+| Founding Trilogy | `workshop_output_bronze`, `timber_stock_destroyed`, `borrower_distress`, `urban_fire_damage`, `rumor_credibility`, `venture_window_days` |
+| Tier A — Supply | `cart_availability`, `porter_availability`, `storage_fee_index`, `food_price_index`, `rumor_velocity`, `dock_congestion`, `fire_risk_index` |
+| Tier B — Institutional | `ius_accessus`, `legal_access_index`, `officia_burden`, `auctoritas`, `clientela` |
+| Tier C — Social | `auctoritas`, `clientela`, `fama`, `officia_burden`, `background_drift` |
+| Historical Reality | See `docs/architecture/historical-reality-parameters.md` |
+
+---
+
+*Scenario Index — living document, 2026-04-28*
+*The engine: one visible signal, one uncertain truth, one hidden second-order effect,*
+*six different readings, no single obvious correct choice.*
+*TheRON — single contributor. AI assistants implement, document, flag — do not direct.*