diff --git a/docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0007-rival-buys-the-cart-space.md b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0007-rival-buys-the-cart-space.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f2be542 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0007-rival-buys-the-cart-space.md @@ -0,0 +1,174 @@ +# CORPUS-0007 +## Rival Buys The Cart Space +### Status: Training Corpus Seed +### Layer: Layer_1--Worked_Examples +### Purpose: Teach that a rival can change the cost, timing, or viability of a venture before the trader acts +### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0007-rival-buys-the-cart-space.md + +--- + +## 0. Scenario + +A trader in Ostia plans to send oil to Capua. + +The expected margin is modest but workable. + +Before he reserves transport, a rival trader buys the best available cart space. + +The oil price in Capua may still be favorable, but the conditions of the venture have changed. + +The opportunity did not disappear because the market changed first. + +It changed because another actor acted first. + +--- + +## 1. Known Initial Facts + +| Fact | Value | +|---|---:| +| Origin | Ostia | +| Destination | Capua | +| Good | oil | +| Purchase price in Ostia | 10 asses | +| Expected sale price in Capua | 20 asses | +| Expected cart share | 4 asses | +| Other expected costs | 3 asses | + +Initial expected total cost: + +```text +10 + 4 + 3 = 17 asses +``` + +Initial expected result: + +```text +20 - 17 = 3 asses profit +``` + +The venture appears worthwhile. + +--- + +## 2. Rival Action + +A rival trader reserves the best cart space before the trader acts. + +The remaining options are worse: + +| Transport Option | New Cost | Effect | +|---|---:|---| +| later cart | 4 asses | two-day delay | +| inferior cart | 5 asses | higher breakage risk | +| private hire | 8 asses | immediate but expensive | + +The same oil no longer has the same venture conditions. + +--- + +## 3. Variant A — Later Cart + +The trader waits two days for the later cart. + +Storage cost increases by 2 asses. + +A rival may reach Capua first. + +```text +purchase price: 10 asses +cart share: 4 asses +other costs: 3 asses +added storage: 2 asses +------------------------------- +total cost: 19 asses +sale value: 20 asses +result: 1 as profit +``` + +The venture still profits, but margin has narrowed. + +--- + +## 4. Variant B — Inferior Cart + +The trader uses the inferior cart. + +Transport cost rises and one small loss occurs during movement. + +```text +purchase price: 10 asses +inferior cart: 5 asses +other costs: 3 asses +loss adjustment: 2 asses +------------------------------- +total cost: 20 asses +sale value: 20 asses +result: 0 profit +``` + +The venture breaks even. + +--- + +## 5. Variant C — Private Hire + +The trader hires private transport immediately. + +```text +purchase price: 10 asses +private hire: 8 asses +other costs: 3 asses +------------------------------- +total cost: 21 asses +sale value: 20 asses +result: 1 as loss +``` + +The fastest option produces a loss unless speed creates other strategic value. + +--- + +## 6. Correct Model Behavior + +The model should reason: + +- the opportunity was not static +- rival action changed available transport +- changed transport altered cost, delay, and risk +- the same purchase and sale prices can produce different outcomes +- acting later can narrow or erase margin +- rivalry can create loss without direct conflict + +--- + +## 7. Incorrect Model Behavior + +The model should not: + +- assume cart space remains available +- treat transport cost as fixed after the first estimate +- ignore rival timing +- assume the trader can always choose the best option +- treat the expected 3-ass profit as guaranteed +- ignore delay caused by unavailable transport + +--- + +## 8. Layer-0 Concepts Used + +This example uses: + +- `CORPUS-0001-trade-requires-two-locations` +- `CORPUS-0004-cost-includes-more-than-purchase-price` +- `CORPUS-0005-profit-is-sale-minus-total-cost` +- `CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost` +- `CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss` +- `CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions` +- `CORPUS-0019-success-has-no-boundary-failure-has-a-hard-stop` + +--- + +## 9. Success Condition + +If the model sees a profitable venture and asks whether rivals can change transport, timing, or margin before the trader acts, this file is functioning correctly.