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docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0013-military-demand-precedes-confirmation.md

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+# CORPUS-0013
+## Military Demand Precedes Confirmation
+### Status: Training Corpus Seed
+### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
+### Purpose: Teach that army or garrison activity may affect supplies before civilians know the official reason
+### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0013-military-demand-precedes-confirmation.md
+
+---
+
+## 0. Scenario
+
+A trader in Ostia notices that fodder prices are rising, cart space is harder to reserve, and smiths are receiving unusual orders.
+
+No official announcement has been made.
+
+A rumor says a nearby garrison may be preparing movement, reinforcement, or supply expansion.
+
+The trader does not yet know whether the rumor is true.
+
+But the market is already changing.
+
+---
+
+## 1. Visible Signals
+
+The trader observes:
+
+- muleteers asking higher rates
+- fodder sellers holding back stock
+- cart owners refusing casual hire
+- smiths buying iron and charcoal early
+- warehouse clerks asking about dry storage
+- grain dealers becoming less flexible
+- road talk increasing near the gate
+
+None of these signals proves military movement alone.
+
+Together, they suggest organized demand may be forming.
+
+---
+
+## 2. Hidden True State
+
+Possible true states:
+
+| Hidden True State | Meaning |
+|---|---|
+| routine resupply | normal garrison provisioning |
+| temporary drill | short-term local demand |
+| unit transfer | carts, fodder, food, and tools needed |
+| frontier preparation | larger and longer supply pressure |
+| false rumor | market reaction based on misread signals |
+| private contractor order | non-military demand mistaken for military demand |
+
+The trader sees effects before knowing cause.
+
+---
+
+## 3. Why Military Demand Matters
+
+Military or garrison demand can affect ordinary markets because it may absorb:
+
+- grain
+- fodder
+- carts
+- draft animals
+- repair labor
+- tools
+- leather
+- rope
+- timber
+- oil and wine
+- storage space
+- road capacity
+
+The army does not need to buy everything to affect prices.
+
+It may change expectations simply by reserving capacity.
+
+---
+
+## 4. Arithmetic Example
+
+A trader plans to send oil from Ostia to Capua.
+
+Original estimate:
+
+```text
+purchase price = 10 asses
+transport cost = 5 asses
+other cost = 2 asses
+expected sale value = 22 asses
+expected result = 5 asses profit
+```
+
+After suspected military demand:
+
+```text
+purchase price = 10 asses
+transport cost = 8 asses
+other cost = 2 asses
+expected sale value = 22 asses
+expected result = 2 asses profit
+```
+
+The destination price did not change.
+
+The transport market changed.
+
+---
+
+## 5. Confirmation Problem
+
+The trader may want to confirm the cause.
+
+But confirmation may be slow.
+
+Possible confirmation paths:
+
+- ask a veteran contact
+- watch cart reservations
+- speak with a fodder seller
+- observe warehouse requests
+- listen at the baths
+- compare gate traffic
+- wait for official notice
+
+By the time confirmation arrives, transport and supplies may already be committed.
+
+---
+
+## 6. Correct Model Behavior
+
+The model should separate:
+
+| Category | Meaning |
+|---|---|
+| visible_market_effect | what has already changed |
+| rumored_cause | what actors say explains it |
+| true_cause | hidden simulation state |
+| affected_inputs | goods and services under pressure |
+| confirmation_cost | cost of learning more |
+| action_window | time before market adjusts further |
+
+The model should recognize that effects may be real even before the cause is confirmed.
+
+---
+
+## 7. Incorrect Model Behavior
+
+The model should not:
+
+- wait for official confirmation before allowing market effects
+- assume military rumor is true because prices moved
+- assume price movement has only one cause
+- ignore transport, fodder, and labor effects
+- treat army demand as affecting only weapons
+- assume civilians know the official reason immediately
+- ignore ordinary traders reacting to suspected demand
+
+---
+
+## 8. Decision Options
+
+The trader may:
+
+- reserve cart space before rates rise further
+- avoid ventures dependent on scarce transport
+- buy fodder early
+- sell into rising supply pressure
+- seek substitute routes
+- reduce cargo size
+- wait for confirmation and accept timing loss
+- investigate through contacts with military or transport knowledge
+
+Each choice trades uncertainty against timing.
+
+---
+
+## 9. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used
+
+This example uses:
+
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0002-goods-have-local-prices`
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0004-cost-includes-more-than-purchase-price`
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost`
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly`
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information`
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss`
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions`
+- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0007-rival-buys-the-cart-space`
+- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0011-round-trip-cart-value`
+- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0003-visible-signal-vs-spoken-claim`
+- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0006-confirmation-has-a-cost`
+- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0007-acting-before-certainty`
+
+---
+
+## 10. Success Condition
+
+If the model sees rising fodder, transport, storage, or tool pressure and asks whether organized demand may be forming before official confirmation, this file is functioning correctly.