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docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report.md

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+# CORPUS-0001
+## Stale Price Report
+### Status: Training Corpus Seed
+### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
+### Purpose: Teach that a report may be true when spoken but unreliable when acted upon because time has passed
+### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report.md
+
+---
+
+## 0. Scenario
+
+A trader in Ostia hears that oil sold for a high price in Capua.
+
+The report may be accurate.
+
+But the report is three days old.
+
+The trader must decide whether the old price still helps him.
+
+A true report can become dangerous when stale.
+
+---
+
+## 1. Report Received
+
+A muleteer says:
+
+> Oil sold in Capua for 22 asses.
+
+The trader asks when the muleteer left Capua.
+
+The answer:
+
+> Three days ago.
+
+The reported price may have been real then.
+
+It may not be real now.
+
+---
+
+## 2. Known Facts
+
+| Fact | Value |
+|---|---|
+| Origin | Ostia |
+| Destination | Capua |
+| Good | oil |
+| Reported Capua sale price | 22 asses |
+| Report age | 3 days |
+| Current Capua price | unknown |
+| Travel time from Ostia to Capua | not yet resolved |
+| Rival shipments | unknown |
+
+---
+
+## 3. Why Staleness Matters
+
+During three days:
+
+- a rival shipment may have arrived
+- the urgent buyer may have already purchased
+- local supply may have changed
+- rumor may have spread
+- sellers may have raised prices at origin
+- transport space may have been reserved
+- the buyer's need may have disappeared
+
+The report can be true and still no longer useful.
+
+---
+
+## 4. Possible Outcomes
+
+### Outcome A — Report Still Useful
+
+The price remains high.
+
+```text
+reported price = 22 asses
+actual sale price = 22 asses
+```
+
+The trader benefits from acting on the report.
+
+### Outcome B — Report Partly Stale
+
+Some demand remains, but the best buyer is gone.
+
+```text
+reported price = 22 asses
+actual sale price = 18 asses
+```
+
+The venture may still work, but margin narrows.
+
+### Outcome C — Report Fully Stale
+
+A rival shipment arrived first.
+
+```text
+reported price = 22 asses
+actual sale price = 14 asses
+```
+
+The report was true when spoken, but harmful when acted upon as current.
+
+---
+
+## 5. Correct Model Behavior
+
+The model should separate:
+
+| Category | Meaning |
+|---|---|
+| report_content | what was claimed |
+| report_age | how old the report is |
+| report_truth_at_origin | whether it was true when observed |
+| current_truth | whether it remains true now |
+| action_delay | time before the trader can act |
+| price_decay_risk | chance that the reported price no longer holds |
+
+A report is not only true or false.
+
+It is also fresh or stale.
+
+---
+
+## 6. Incorrect Model Behavior
+
+The model should not:
+
+- treat a true old report as current certainty
+- ignore report age
+- ignore travel time after receiving the report
+- assume demand remains unchanged
+- assume no rival acted during the delay
+- treat stale information as useless in all cases
+- collapse freshness and truth into one value
+
+---
+
+## 7. Decision Questions
+
+The trader must ask:
+
+- who gave the report?
+- when did they leave Capua?
+- did they witness a sale or repeat talk?
+- how fast can I act?
+- who else has heard the same report?
+- how quickly can the price change?
+- is the reported price tied to one buyer or general demand?
+- what happens if the price falls before arrival?
+
+---
+
+## 8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used
+
+This example uses:
+
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0002-goods-have-local-prices`
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost`
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly`
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information`
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss`
+- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price`
+- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0007-rival-buys-the-cart-space`
+
+---
+
+## 9. Success Condition
+
+If the model can recognize that a report may be true, useful, stale, or dangerous depending on age and action delay, this file is functioning correctly.