From f314a6c98286006cecfe1a310ad3e680f172b1cc Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: TheRON Date: Thu, 30 Apr 2026 08:51:34 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] initial upload --- ...estival-demand-and-after-event-bargains.md | 231 ++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 231 insertions(+) create mode 100644 docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0013-festival-demand-and-after-event-bargains.md diff --git a/docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0013-festival-demand-and-after-event-bargains.md b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0013-festival-demand-and-after-event-bargains.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2182e63 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0013-festival-demand-and-after-event-bargains.md @@ -0,0 +1,231 @@ +# CORPUS-0013 +## Festival Demand And After-Event Bargains +### Status: Training Corpus Seed +### Layer: Layer_1--Worked_Examples +### Purpose: Teach that predictable gatherings can raise demand before an event and create discounted surplus after the event +### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0013-festival-demand-and-after-event-bargains.md + +--- + +## 0. Scenario + +A trader in Ostia learns that a festival or public gathering in Capua will increase demand for food, oil, cheap cloth, drink, lamps, and small comforts. + +Before the event, sellers move goods toward Capua because buyers will gather there. + +After the event, some sellers may be tired, short of coin, unwilling to pay storage, or eager to move on. + +The same event can create two different opportunities: + +1. selling into rising demand before the gathering +2. buying leftover stock after the gathering and moving it to the next place + +--- + +## 1. Before The Event + +Before the event, demand may rise for: + +- food +- oil +- wine +- lamps +- cloth +- cheap ornaments +- animal feed +- lodging +- porterage +- temporary stalls +- repair work + +A trader may send goods early to sell into higher demand. + +Example: + +```text +purchase value in Ostia = 20 asses +transport and handling = 6 asses +expected sale value in Capua before festival = 34 asses +expected result = 8 asses profit +``` + +The profit depends on arriving before the demand peak is satisfied. + +--- + +## 2. During The Event + +During the event: + +- prices may rise for urgent goods +- porterage may become expensive +- lodging may tighten +- carts may be unavailable +- buyers may pay more for convenience +- sellers may run out of stock +- officials or local organizers may restrict certain spaces + +The trader may profit if positioned early. + +But late arrival can be costly. + +--- + +## 3. After The Event + +After the event, unsold goods may become discounted. + +Sellers may want to avoid: + +- storage cost +- return transport +- spoilage +- breakage +- fatigue +- tied-up capital +- missed next market + +A trader with available coin, storage, or transport may buy leftover goods below ordinary value. + +Example: + +```text +leftover goods bought after event = 18 asses +handling and storage = 4 asses +transport to next location = 5 asses +expected sale value elsewhere = 34 asses +expected result = 7 asses profit +``` + +The bargain exists because the seller faces post-event pressure. + +--- + +## 4. Incorrect Model Behavior + +The model should not: + +- treat festival demand as random +- ignore predictable timing +- assume high demand lasts forever +- assume leftovers are worthless +- ignore post-event seller pressure +- ignore transport scarcity before the event +- ignore storage pressure after the event +- treat every after-event bargain as automatically safe + +The event creates a cycle, not a single price change. + +--- + +## 5. Correct Model Behavior + +The model should separate: + +| Stage | Market Condition | +|---|---| +| before event | rising demand, transport competition | +| during event | high urgency, crowded access, price volatility | +| after event | surplus, fatigue, storage pressure, discounted stock | +| next location | possible resale if demand remains unmet elsewhere | + +The trader must identify where in the cycle he is acting. + +--- + +## 6. Risk Variants + +### Variant A — Arrives Early + +The trader reaches Capua before the event. + +```text +sale value = 34 asses +total cost = 26 asses +result = 8 asses profit +``` + +### Variant B — Arrives Late + +Other sellers satisfy demand first. + +```text +sale value = 27 asses +total cost = 26 asses +result = 1 as profit +``` + +### Variant C — Buys Leftovers Poorly + +The trader buys leftover goods, but they are damaged or unsuitable for the next location. + +```text +sale value = 24 asses +total cost = 27 asses +result = 3 asses loss +``` + +### Variant D — Buys Leftovers Well + +The trader buys sound leftovers from tired sellers and moves them to another event location. + +```text +sale value = 34 asses +total cost = 27 asses +result = 7 asses profit +``` + +--- + +## 7. Timing Questions + +The trader must ask: + +- when does the event begin? +- when does demand peak? +- when do sellers arrive? +- when do buyers depart? +- which goods spoil or lose value quickly? +- which goods remain useful after the event? +- is transport available after the crowd leaves? +- where is the next demand location? + +The event calendar is an economic map. + +--- + +## 8. Non-Coin Settlement Variant + +After the event, a seller may accept mixed settlement: + +- some coin now +- help moving goods +- storage for one night +- a share of resale +- goods exchanged for transport +- future priority at the next gathering + +The trader should track obligations, not only coin. + +--- + +## 9. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used + +This example uses: + +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0002-goods-have-local-prices` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0004-cost-includes-more-than-purchase-price` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0005-profit-is-sale-minus-total-cost` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0013-non-coin-settlement-exists` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0016-opportunistic-bargains-come-from-pressure` +- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions` +- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0003-arithmetic-resolves-the-venture` +- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0007-rival-buys-the-cart-space` + +--- + +## 10. Success Condition + +If the model sees a festival or public gathering and asks how demand, transport, storage, leftovers, and next-location resale change before, during, and after the event, this file is functioning correctly.