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+# CORPUS-0006
+## Confirmation Has A Cost
+### Status: Training Corpus Seed
+### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
+### Purpose: Teach that reducing uncertainty requires time, effort, access, and sometimes coin, and may reduce or close the opportunity being investigated
+### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0006-confirmation-has-a-cost.md
+
+---
+
+## 0. Scenario
+
+A trader in Ostia hears that oil prices are high in Capua.
+
+He can act immediately on uncertain information.
+
+Or he can seek confirmation first.
+
+Confirmation may improve decision quality.
+
+But confirmation is not free.
+
+It may cost time, coin, access, attention, and opportunity.
+
+---
+
+## 1. Initial Report
+
+A porter says:
+
+> Oil buyers in Capua are paying high prices.
+
+The trader does not know whether the report is true, stale, exaggerated, or specific to one buyer.
+
+He considers confirming the report before acting.
+
+---
+
+## 2. Confirmation Options
+
+| Option | Cost | Benefit |
+|---|---:|---|
+| ask a second source at the quay | low time | modest confidence |
+| send a runner to a road contact | coin + time | stronger confidence |
+| wait for next cart from Capua | time | fresh report |
+| ask a trusted buyer by letter | long delay | high confidence if answered |
+| inspect rival preparations | social risk + time | indirect evidence |
+| reserve transport while checking | coin or obligation | preserves option |
+
+Each option reduces uncertainty differently.
+
+None is free.
+
+---
+
+## 3. Example: Immediate Action
+
+If the trader acts immediately:
+
+```text
+information_confidence = low
+timing_advantage = high
+confirmation_cost = 0
+risk_of_wrong_price = high
+```
+
+He may profit if the report is accurate and rivals have not moved.
+
+He may lose if the report is wrong.
+
+---
+
+## 4. Example: Delayed Confirmation
+
+If the trader waits two days for confirmation:
+
+```text
+information_confidence = higher
+timing_advantage = lower
+confirmation_cost = time + possible lost cart space
+risk_of_missed_opportunity = higher
+```
+
+By the time he confirms the price, others may have acted.
+
+The confirmed opportunity may no longer exist.
+
+---
+
+## 5. Arithmetic Example
+
+Initial expected venture:
+
+```text
+expected sale price = 22 asses
+total cost = 16 asses
+expected profit = 6 asses
+```
+
+The trader spends 2 asses to confirm the report and loses one day.
+
+If the price remains high:
+
+```text
+sale value = 22 asses
+total cost = 16 + 2 confirmation cost
+result = 4 asses profit
+```
+
+If delay allows rivals to reach Capua first and price falls:
+
+```text
+sale value = 18 asses
+total cost = 18 asses
+result = 0 profit
+```
+
+Confirmation improved knowledge but narrowed the margin.
+
+---
+
+## 6. Correct Model Behavior
+
+The model should treat confirmation as an action with cost.
+
+It should track:
+
+| Category | Meaning |
+|---|---|
+| uncertainty_reduction | what becomes better known |
+| confirmation_cost | coin, time, obligation, or access spent |
+| opportunity_decay | how the opportunity changes while confirming |
+| timing_advantage_loss | what rivals may gain |
+| remaining_margin | profit after confirmation cost |
+| confidence_after_confirmation | improved but not necessarily perfect knowledge |
+
+Confirmation reduces some risk.
+
+It may create other cost.
+
+---
+
+## 7. Incorrect Model Behavior
+
+The model should not:
+
+- assume verification is free
+- assume waiting only improves decisions
+- ignore lost time
+- ignore rival action during confirmation
+- ignore confirmation cost in final arithmetic
+- treat confirmation as perfect knowledge
+- force immediate action as always better
+- force waiting as always safer
+
+Both immediate action and confirmation can be rational.
+
+---
+
+## 8. Decision Questions
+
+The trader must ask:
+
+- how uncertain is the report?
+- how large is the expected margin?
+- how fast can the opportunity close?
+- what does confirmation cost?
+- how much confidence does confirmation add?
+- who else may act while I verify?
+- can I reserve the option while confirming?
+- can I reduce exposure instead of fully waiting?
+
+---
+
+## 9. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used
+
+This example uses:
+
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost`
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly`
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information`
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss`
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions`
+- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0003-arithmetic-resolves-the-venture`
+- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price`
+- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0005-hidden-true-state-vs-known-state`
+
+---
+
+## 10. Success Condition
+
+If the model stops treating confirmation as free certainty and starts treating it as a cost-bearing action that may improve knowledge while reducing opportunity, this file is functioning correctly.