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+# CORPUS-0002
+## Conflicting Reports
+### Status: Training Corpus Seed
+### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
+### Purpose: Teach that two reports about the same market can disagree, and that disagreement must be evaluated rather than averaged blindly
+### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports.md
+
+---
+
+## 0. Scenario
+
+A trader in Ostia hears two different reports about the price of oil in Capua.
+
+One report says the price is high.
+
+Another report says the price has already fallen.
+
+Both reports may contain some truth.
+
+The trader must compare source, age, motive, and evidence before acting.
+
+---
+
+## 1. Reports Received
+
+### Report A
+
+A muleteer says:
+
+> Oil sold in Capua for 22 asses.
+
+Report age: three days.
+
+### Report B
+
+A warehouse clerk says:
+
+> Buyers in Capua are no longer paying more than 16 asses.
+
+Report age: one day.
+
+The reports conflict.
+
+The model must not simply choose the higher number because it creates profit, or the lower number because it seems safer.
+
+---
+
+## 2. Known Facts
+
+| Fact | Value |
+|---|---|
+| Origin | Ostia |
+| Destination | Capua |
+| Good | oil |
+| Report A price | 22 asses |
+| Report A age | 3 days |
+| Report A source | muleteer |
+| Report B price | 16 asses |
+| Report B age | 1 day |
+| Report B source | warehouse clerk |
+| Current true price | unknown |
+
+---
+
+## 3. Possible Explanations
+
+The reports may conflict because:
+
+- Report A is true but stale
+- Report B is newer and more accurate
+- Report A was an exceptional sale to one urgent buyer
+- Report B reflects lower-quality oil
+- one source repeated hearsay
+- one source has reason to influence the trader
+- both reports are true for different buyers
+- price changed between the two reports
+
+Conflict does not mean one report is worthless.
+
+It means the trader must identify what each report actually describes.
+
+---
+
+## 4. Incorrect Model Behavior
+
+The model should not:
+
+- average the prices without reason
+- choose the report that makes the venture profitable
+- choose the newest report automatically
+- ignore source motive
+- ignore quality differences
+- assume all buyers in Capua pay one price
+- collapse conflicting reports into simple truth/falsehood
+
+---
+
+## 5. Correct Model Behavior
+
+The model should evaluate:
+
+| Question | Why It Matters |
+|---|---|
+| Which report is newer? | newer information may reflect current conditions |
+| Which source observed directly? | witnessed sale is stronger than repeated talk |
+| Which source has motive? | self-interest may distort report |
+| What quality of oil was priced? | different quality may explain different prices |
+| Was the price general or exceptional? | one urgent buyer does not define the whole market |
+| Has supply changed? | new shipment may lower price |
+| Who else has heard the report? | shared knowledge changes opportunity |
+
+---
+
+## 6. Decision Example
+
+The trader calculates expected cost at 16 asses.
+
+If Report A is current:
+
+```text
+sale value = 22 asses
+total cost = 16 asses
+result = 6 asses profit
+```
+
+If Report B is current:
+
+```text
+sale value = 16 asses
+total cost = 16 asses
+result = 0 profit
+```
+
+If the true price has fallen below both reports:
+
+```text
+sale value = 14 asses
+total cost = 16 asses
+result = 2 asses loss
+```
+
+The decision depends on confidence, not arithmetic alone.
+
+Arithmetic resolves the final result after the true sale price is known.
+
+---
+
+## 7. Useful Action Under Conflict
+
+The trader may:
+
+- seek a third report
+- send a runner
+- reduce cargo size
+- negotiate a lower purchase price
+- reserve cart space conditionally
+- wait and risk losing opportunity
+- act quickly and accept information risk
+
+Conflicting reports do not require paralysis.
+
+They require adjusted commitment.
+
+---
+
+## 8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used
+
+This example uses:
+
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0002-goods-have-local-prices`
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly`
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information`
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss`
+- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0003-arithmetic-resolves-the-venture`
+- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price`
+- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report`
+
+---
+
+## 9. Success Condition
+
+If the model sees two conflicting reports and evaluates source, age, motive, quality, and scope before deciding how much confidence to place in either, this file is functioning correctly.