# SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0002
## The Capuan Timber Yard Fire
### Status: Canonical Scenario Seed
### Layer: OTIVM (Roman Merchant)
### Purpose: Merchant-opportunity scenario driven by destruction of upstream material stock, cascading shortages, and route-constrained arbitrage
### Repository Path: docs/scenarios/SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0002.md

---

## 0. Design Intent

Destruction of inputs creates wider cascades than destruction of finished goods.

A timber yard fire affects construction, transport, agriculture, military logistics, and workshop recovery simultaneously. The participant should learn to think in dependencies rather than headlines.

This scenario validates:

- upstream choke-point logic
- multi-sector shortage propagation
- scenario compounding with 0001
- route-constrained NEGOTIVM decisions
- state demand distortion
- time-sensitive arbitrage

---

## 1. Canonical Identifier

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Scenario ID | `SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0002` |
| Title | The Capuan Timber Yard Fire |
| Token | `capuan_timber_yard_fire` |
| Domain | merchant |
| Repeatable | yes |
| Hidden Truth Variants | yes |

---

## 2. Setting

| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary City | Capua |
| Venture Route | Ostia -> Capua |
| Site Type | timber seasoning / cutting / fabrication yard |
| Stored Stock | planks, beams, wheel timber, handle blanks, wagon parts |
| Strategic Context | routine military preparation and contractor demand |

---

## 3. Historical Basis

Roman Italy required sustained timber flows for:

- construction
- carts and wheels
- agricultural implements
- scaffolding
- river and coastal craft components
- military logistics
- fuel and charcoal production

Contractor yards and timber depots plausibly stored seasoned stock for downstream use or onward shipment.

This scenario is an analogue model, not a claim of a specific recorded Capuan incident.

Confidence: Medium  
Sources: Roman logistics scholarship; transport studies; timber demand in antiquity.

---

## 4. Visible Event

Night fire spreads through the Capuan timber yard.

By sunrise:

- plank stacks destroyed
- beams charred or unusable
- wheel stock lost
- handle blanks consumed
- sheds collapsed
- carts trapped or burned
- adjacent workshops disrupted
- guards report suspicious movement or conflicting stories

Public cause unresolved.

---

## 5. Hidden Cause Variants

| Token | Description |
|---|---|
| accidental_fire | lamp, spark, careless storage |
| contractor_fraud | debt escape through loss |
| rival_arson | competing supplier |
| enemy_sabotage | hostile agents |
| labor_revenge | wage dispute |
| magistrate_pressure | coercive redevelopment |
| theft_coverup | crime hidden by fire |

Signals only. No certainty.

---

## 6. Immediate Effects (0–7 days)

| Effect | Direction |
|---|---|
| available timber stock | down |
| carpentry throughput | down |
| wheelwright capacity | down |
| cart repair speed | down |
| urgent buyers | up |
| speculation | up |
| rumor volume | up |

---

## 7. Secondary Effects (7–30 days)

| Effect | Direction |
|---|---|
| timber prices in Capua | up |
| transport rates | up |
| farm implement delays | up |
| building delays | up |
| substitute imports | up |
| theft risk for lumber | up |
| contractor credit stress | up |
| state requisition pressure | possible |

---

## 8. Tertiary Effects (30+ days)

| Effect | Direction |
|---|---|
| regional forest extraction | up |
| road congestion | up |
| poor-quality substitutes used | possible |
| migration of craftsmen | possible |
| durable merchant contracts | possible |
| local political realignment | possible |

---

## 9. Merchant Venture Logic (Ostia -> Capua)

Merchant departs Ostia before Capua fully reprices.

### Candidate Cargo Ventures

| Cargo | Thesis |
|---|---|
| nails / fasteners | rebuild demand |
| bronze tools | carpentry recovery |
| iron tools | substitute demand |
| rope | hauling operations |
| pitch / tar | treatment and repair |
| wheel hardware | transport bottleneck relief |
| food staples | urgent crews and displaced labor |

### Separate Financial Opportunities (Non-Cargo)

These are distinct NEGOTIA and should not be modeled as cargo:

| Action | Thesis |
|---|---|
| short-term lending | distressed contractor liquidity |
| advance purchase contracts | lock future timber supply |
| debt claim acquisition | buy impaired obligations cheaply |
| partnership finance | fund rebuild for future share |

---

## 10. Linked Scenario Logic (with 0001)

If SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0001 occurred recently:

- fewer bronze tools available regionally
- timber processing slower
- rebuild costs higher
- cart shortages worsen transport delays
- price spikes intensify

Scenarios should compound rather than exist in isolation.

---

## 11. Parameters With Confidence Tags

| Parameter Token | Type | Confidence | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| timber_stock_destroyed | resource | High | direct scenario state |
| yard_damage_level | event | High | direct scenario state |
| timber_price_capua | market | Medium | standard shortage response |
| carpentry_capacity | production | Medium | dependent workshops |
| transport_rate_capua | market | Medium | cart scarcity + urgency |
| implement_delay_days | temporal | Medium | backlog effects |
| sabotage_rumor_credibility | information | Low | social inference |
| state_requisition_pressure | political | Low | contingent context |
| venture_window_days | opportunity | Medium | route duration + repricing lag |
| theft_risk_lumber | security | Low | scarcity response |

---

## 12. Relations

```text
timber_stock_destroyed ↑ -> timber_price_capua ↑
timber_price_capua ↑ -> import_incentive_ostia_to_capua ↑
carpentry_capacity ↓ -> building_delay ↑
wheelwright_capacity ↓ -> transport_rate_capua ↑
transport_rate_capua ↑ -> food_prices ↑
implement_delay_days ↑ -> agricultural_output_risk ↑
rumor_credibility ↑ -> speculative_buying ↑
state_requisition_pressure ↑ -> civilian_access ↓
recent_scenario_0001 == true -> recovery_speed ↓
```

---

## 13. Replayability Controls

Randomize:

- hidden cause
- severity
- stock saved percentage
- rival merchant speed
- military urgency
- road delays
- theft wave
- magistrate intervention

---

## 14. Repository Use

Internal simulation substrate. Not player-facing text.

Use to validate:

- precursor material economics
- scenario chaining
- route-constrained arbitrage
- hidden information systems
- cascading shortages
- regional price propagation
- cargo vs finance NEGOTIVM distinction

---

## 15. Canonical Success Condition

If the participant stops asking:

“What burned?”

and starts asking:

“What depended on it?”

then the scenario is functioning correctly.