# SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0001  
## The Bronze Forge Fire  
### Status: Canonical Scenario Seed  
### Layer: OTIVM (Roman Merchant)  
### Purpose: Foundational merchant-opportunity scenario driven by urban industrial disruption, rumor, and collateral demand discovery  
### Repository Path: docs/scenarios/SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0001.md

---

## 0. Design Intent

A skilled MERCATOR does not react only to visible loss.  
He reacts to shortages that will emerge elsewhere, before those markets understand why.

This scenario exists to validate:

- second-order opportunity recognition  
- route-constrained agency  
- urban supply-chain dependency propagation  
- rumor under uncertainty  
- time-sensitive arbitrage  
- actor-trait effects on recovery  

---

## 1. Canonical Identifier

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Scenario ID | `SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0001` |
| Title | The Bronze Forge Fire |
| Token | `bronze_forge_fire` |
| Domain | merchant |
| Repeatable | yes |
| Hidden Truth Variants | yes |

---

## 2. Setting

| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary City | Ostia |
| Reachable Venture Route | Ostia -> Capua |
| District Type | industrial / mixed-use |
| Nearby Assets | creek, bridge, grazing yard, frontage |
| Legacy Asset | large bronze forge compound |

---

## 3. Historical Basis

This scenario uses historically plausible urban-industrial structures common to premodern cities:

- inherited land privileges  
- scarce transport frontage  
- water access  
- old workshops on favorable plots  
- frequent destructive fires  
- contested redevelopment pressure  
- credit stress after disasters  

It is an analogue scenario, not a claim of a specific recorded Ostian incident.

Confidence: Medium  
Sources: comparative premodern urban fire history; Roman urban workshop archaeology; general ancient commercial scholarship.

---

## 4. Visible Event

At dawn, smoke rises from the bronze forge compound.

By midday:

- roof collapse reported  
- fuel stores consumed  
- molds damaged  
- workers displaced  
- adjacent traders disrupted  
- access partially blocked  

Public cause remains unresolved.

---

## 5. Hidden Cause Variants

| Token | Description |
|---|---|
| accidental_fire | spark, kiln, storage mishap |
| negligence | poor safety practice |
| debt_escape | records loss / creditor evasion |
| coercive_persuasion | pressure to force sale |
| family_conflict | internal sabotage |
| competitor_action | rival industrial interest |
| magistrate_pressure | unofficial clearance |

Player never receives certainty, only signals.

---

## 6. Actor Model — Forge Clan

| Trait Token | Meaning |
|---|---|
| asset_rich | controls valuable land |
| liquidity_poor | lacks rebuild cash |
| greedy | rejects fair terms |
| politically_weak | limited protection |
| strategically_foolish | poor long-term choices |
| prideful | delays compromise |

These traits should be reusable actor parameters for later FACTOR/NPC systems.

---

## 7. Immediate Effects (0–7 days)

| Effect | Direction |
|---|---|
| bronze output | down |
| tool repair capacity | down |
| displaced labor | up |
| scrap availability | up |
| speculation | up |
| rumor volume | up |

---

## 8. Secondary Effects (7–30 days)

| Effect | Direction |
|---|---|
| bronze tool prices in Ostia | up |
| substitute iron demand | up |
| timber demand | up |
| stone demand | up |
| fuel demand | up |
| temporary rents | up |
| creditor leverage | up |

---

## 9. Merchant Venture Logic (Ostia -> Capua Only)

Merchant cannot freely exploit every local opportunity. He can launch the permitted venture route to Capua.

### Correct Arbitrage Directions

| Cargo | Direction | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| substitute tools | Ostia -> Capua | sell unaffected stock before Capua reprices |
| iron stock | Ostia -> Capua | substitution demand spreads outward |
| hardware / nails | Ostia -> Capua | rebuild ripple and carpentry demand |
| timber fittings | Ostia -> Capua | construction demand chain |
| bronze tools | Capua -> Ostia | anticipate Ostia shortage |
| charcoal / fuel | Capua -> Ostia | rebuild fuel demand |

---

## 10. Parameters With Confidence Tags

| Parameter Token | Type | Confidence | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| workshop_output_bronze | production | High | direct scenario state |
| urban_fire_damage | event | High | direct scenario state |
| rumor_credibility | information | Medium | inferred social response |
| rebuild_delay_days | temporal | Medium | depends on cause + finance |
| timber_price_ostia | market | Medium | standard post-fire demand |
| iron_substitution_rate | industrial | Low | requires local craft data |
| displaced_workers_count | labor | Medium | workshop scale estimate |
| district_access_penalty | movement | Medium | fire cordon / debris |
| creditor_pressure | financial | Low | sparse direct evidence |
| tool_price_capua | market | Low | lagged transmission model |
| venture_window_days | opportunity | Medium | route duration + reaction lag |

---

## 11. Relations

```text
urban_fire_damage ↑ -> workshop_output_bronze ↓
workshop_output_bronze ↓ -> bronze_tool_price_ostia ↑
bronze_tool_price_ostia ↑ -> import_incentive_capua_to_ostia ↑
bronze scarcity ↑ -> iron_substitution_rate ↑
rebuild_delay_days ↑ -> timber_price_ostia ↑
rumor_credibility ↑ -> speculative_buying ↑
displaced_workers_count ↑ -> wages ↓ (short-term)
district_access_penalty ↑ -> freight_cost_local ↑
information_delay_capua > 0 -> temporary arbitrage_window ↑
```

---

## 12. Replayability Controls

Randomize:

- hidden cause  
- severity  
- rebuild speed  
- magistrate stance  
- rival merchant response  
- rumor truthfulness  
- transport delays  

---

## 13. Repository Use

Internal simulation substrate. Not player-facing text.

Use to validate:

- event ingestion  
- market propagation  
- route constraints  
- hidden information systems  
- actor trait systems  
- opportunity windows  

---

## 14. Canonical Success Condition

If the participant stops asking:

“What burned?”

and starts asking:

“Who now needs what, where, and when?”

then the scenario is functioning correctly.