# CORPUS-0013 ## Military Demand Precedes Confirmation ### Status: Training Corpus Seed ### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty ### Purpose: Teach that army or garrison activity may affect supplies before civilians know the official reason ### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0013-military-demand-precedes-confirmation.md --- ## 0. Scenario A trader in Ostia notices that fodder prices are rising, cart space is harder to reserve, and smiths are receiving unusual orders. No official announcement has been made. A rumor says a nearby garrison may be preparing movement, reinforcement, or supply expansion. The trader does not yet know whether the rumor is true. But the market is already changing. --- ## 1. Visible Signals The trader observes: - muleteers asking higher rates - fodder sellers holding back stock - cart owners refusing casual hire - smiths buying iron and charcoal early - warehouse clerks asking about dry storage - grain dealers becoming less flexible - road talk increasing near the gate None of these signals proves military movement alone. Together, they suggest organized demand may be forming. --- ## 2. Hidden True State Possible true states: | Hidden True State | Meaning | |---|---| | routine resupply | normal garrison provisioning | | temporary drill | short-term local demand | | unit transfer | carts, fodder, food, and tools needed | | frontier preparation | larger and longer supply pressure | | false rumor | market reaction based on misread signals | | private contractor order | non-military demand mistaken for military demand | The trader sees effects before knowing cause. --- ## 3. Why Military Demand Matters Military or garrison demand can affect ordinary markets because it may absorb: - grain - fodder - carts - draft animals - repair labor - tools - leather - rope - timber - oil and wine - storage space - road capacity The army does not need to buy everything to affect prices. It may change expectations simply by reserving capacity. --- ## 4. Arithmetic Example A trader plans to send oil from Ostia to Capua. Original estimate: ```text purchase price = 10 asses transport cost = 5 asses other cost = 2 asses expected sale value = 22 asses expected result = 5 asses profit ``` After suspected military demand: ```text purchase price = 10 asses transport cost = 8 asses other cost = 2 asses expected sale value = 22 asses expected result = 2 asses profit ``` The destination price did not change. The transport market changed. --- ## 5. Confirmation Problem The trader may want to confirm the cause. But confirmation may be slow. Possible confirmation paths: - ask a veteran contact - watch cart reservations - speak with a fodder seller - observe warehouse requests - listen at the baths - compare gate traffic - wait for official notice By the time confirmation arrives, transport and supplies may already be committed. --- --- ## 0. Scenario A trader in Ostia notices that fodder prices are rising, cart space is harder to reserve, and smiths are receiving unusual orders. No official announcement has been made. A rumor says a nearby garrison may be preparing movement, reinforcement, or supply expansion. The trader does not yet know whether the rumor is true. But the market is already changing. --- ## 1. Visible Signals The trader observes: - muleteers asking higher rates - fodder sellers holding back stock - cart owners refusing casual hire - smiths buying iron and charcoal early - warehouse clerks asking about dry storage - grain dealers becoming less flexible - road talk increasing near the gate None of these signals proves military movement alone. Together, they suggest organized demand may be forming. --- ## 2. Hidden True State Possible true states: | Hidden True State | Meaning | |---|---| | routine resupply | normal garrison provisioning | | temporary drill | short-term local demand | | unit transfer | carts, fodder, food, and tools needed | | frontier preparation | larger and longer supply pressure | | false rumor | market reaction based on misread signals | | private contractor order | non-military demand mistaken for military demand | The trader sees effects before knowing cause. --- ## 6. Correct Model Behavior The model should separate: | Category | Meaning | |---|---| | visible_market_effect | what has already changed | | rumored_cause | what actors say explains it | | true_cause | hidden simulation state | | affected_inputs | goods and services under pressure | | confirmation_cost | cost of learning more | | action_window | time before market adjusts further | The model should recognize that effects may be real even before the cause is confirmed. --- ## 7. Incorrect Model Behavior The model should not: - wait for official confirmation before allowing market effects - assume military rumor is true because prices moved - assume price movement has only one cause - ignore transport, fodder, and labor effects - treat army demand as affecting only weapons - assume civilians know the official reason immediately - ignore ordinary traders reacting to suspected demand --- ## 8. Decision Options The trader may: - reserve cart space before rates rise further - avoid ventures dependent on scarce transport - buy fodder early - sell into rising supply pressure - seek substitute routes - reduce cargo size - wait for confirmation and accept timing loss - investigate through contacts with military or transport knowledge Each choice trades uncertainty against timing. --- ## 9. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used This example uses: - `Layer_0/CORPUS-0002-goods-have-local-prices` - `Layer_0/CORPUS-0004-cost-includes-more-than-purchase-price` - `Layer_0/CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost` - `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly` - `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information` - `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss` - `Layer_0/CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions` - `Layer_1/CORPUS-0007-rival-buys-the-cart-space` - `Layer_1/CORPUS-0011-round-trip-cart-value` - `Layer_2/CORPUS-0003-visible-signal-vs-spoken-claim` - `Layer_2/CORPUS-0006-confirmation-has-a-cost` - `Layer_2/CORPUS-0007-acting-before-certainty` --- ## 10. Success Condition If the model sees rising fodder, transport, storage, or tool pressure and asks whether organized demand may be forming before official confirmation, this file is functioning correctly. ---