4.2 KiB
CORPUS-0009
Same Event, Different Knowledge
Status: Training Corpus Seed
Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
Purpose: Teach that different actors may know different parts of the same event because of position, status, timing, and access
Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0009-same-event-different-knowledge.md
0. Scenario
A timber barge is delayed near Ostia.
The event is one event.
But no single actor automatically knows the whole event.
A porter, trader, clerk, official, buyer, and cart owner may each know a different part.
The model must not treat “the city knows” as one shared knowledge state.
1. Hidden True Event
The simulation true state:
| Hidden True State | Value |
|---|---|
| Event | timber barge delayed |
| Cause | towline broke |
| Cargo | dry beam stock and wheel blanks |
| Delay | one day minimum |
| Damage | minor |
| Destination buyers | two carpentry shops |
| Official notice | not yet filed |
The true state exists.
Most actors know only fragments.
2. Actor Knowledge States
| Actor | What They Know |
|---|---|
| towman | towline broke; delay likely one day |
| porter | a timber barge is late |
| trader | timber buyers are asking questions |
| warehouse clerk | reserved storage may remain empty today |
| cart owner | return load may be delayed |
| official | no formal notice yet |
| carpenter | expected timber has not arrived |
| buyer in another district | may know nothing |
Each actor has partial knowledge.
3. Why The Differences Matter
Different knowledge creates different actions.
The towman may seek rope.
The porter may repeat a vague delay rumor.
The trader may reserve alternative timber.
The warehouse clerk may release storage.
The cart owner may demand waiting pay.
The carpenter may bid for substitute material.
No one needs the entire truth to act.
4. Incorrect Model Behavior
The model should not:
- assume all actors know the same facts
- treat a city as one mind
- give the trader official knowledge without a path
- assume formal notice arrives before street knowledge
- assume partial knowledge is useless
- ignore actor position and access
- collapse true event into public knowledge
5. Correct Model Behavior
The model should track:
| Category | Meaning |
|---|---|
| true_event_state | what actually happened |
| actor_observed_signal | what each actor directly observes |
| actor_report | what each actor says or repeats |
| actor_inference | what each actor believes follows |
| confidence | how strongly each actor trusts the information |
| action | what each actor does from partial knowledge |
Knowledge should be actor-specific.
6. Decision Example
A trader hears from a porter:
Timber is late.
This is vague.
He then sees two carpenters near the quay asking about substitutes.
That visible behavior increases confidence that the delay matters.
He still does not know:
- cause of delay
- cargo condition
- duration of delay
- whether the timber is already reserved
- whether alternate supply exists
The trader may still act before full knowledge.
7. Same Event, Different Profits
Different actors may benefit from different fragments:
| Actor | Possible Use |
|---|---|
| rope seller | sells replacement towline |
| cart owner | charges waiting time |
| trader | sources substitute timber |
| carpenter | secures scarce material early |
| clerk | rents storage elsewhere |
| creditor | checks exposed contractor |
The same event creates different opportunities because knowledge differs.
8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used
This example uses:
Layer_0/CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-costLayer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenlyLayer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-informationLayer_0/CORPUS-0011-status-changes-accessLayer_0/CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditionsLayer_1/CORPUS-0007-rival-buys-the-cart-spaceLayer_1/CORPUS-0011-round-trip-cart-valueLayer_2/CORPUS-0005-hidden-true-state-vs-known-state
9. Success Condition
If the model stops treating an event as equally known by all actors and starts tracking who knows which fragment, from what position, and with what confidence, this file is functioning correctly.