otivm/docs/scenarios/SCENARIO-INDEX.md

Scenario Index

TheRON — OTIVM / CIVICVS Scenario Library

Status: Living document — scenarios added as developed, never removed

Date: 2026-04-28

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0. Canonical Structural Rule

Every scenario in this library must satisfy all five of the following:

1. One visible signal — something the participant can observe directly
2. One uncertain truth — the real cause or state is hidden or contested
3. One hidden second-order effect — the consequence that matters is not the obvious one
4. Six different readings — each of the six cast perspectives interprets the event differently
5. No single obvious correct choice — a participant who thinks they know the right answer has missed the point

A scenario that fails any of these five tests is not yet complete.

The engine of the simulation is this: the participant who stops asking "what happened?" and starts asking "whose need can I price, and when?" is thinking correctly. Every scenario is designed to force that transition.

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1. Prologue

The prologue is a special case — it is the only scenario every participant experiences identically. It precedes all other scenarios and governs background selection.

ID	Title	Token	Status
SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0000	The BALNEA Conversation	balnea_conversation	canonical

Reference documents:

• docs/scenarios/SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0000.md
• docs/actors/CHARACTER-FRAMEWORK.md
• docs/actors/BACKGROUND-0001 through BACKGROUND-0006
• docs/economy/CAST-OSTIA-0001.md
• docs/dialogue/TOPIC-BALNEA-0001.md

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2. Founding Trilogy — Fire, Dependencies, Capital

These three scenarios form a causal chain. They should be experienced in order where possible, as each compounds the effects of the previous.

ID	Title	Token	Status	Teaching
SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0001	The Bronze Forge Fire	bronze_forge_fire	canonical	second-order market logic
SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0002	The Capuan Timber Yard Fire	capuan_timber_yard_fire	canonical	upstream choke-point logic
SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0003	The FAENUS Offer	faenus_offer	canonical	capital without cargo

Chain dependency: recent_scenario_0001 == true modifies 0002. recent_scenario_0001 or 0002 == true increases opportunity in 0003.

Success condition arc:

• 0001: Stop asking "what burned?" Start asking "who now needs what, where, and when?"
• 0002: Stop asking "what burned?" Start asking "what depended on it?"
• 0003: Stop asking "what can I carry?" Start asking "whose need can I price?"

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3. Tier A — Supply and Infrastructure Shocks

High priority. These scenarios teach physical and logistical dependencies that are prerequisite to understanding the route parameter model.

ID	Title	Token	Status	Teaching
SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0004	The Warehouse Rat Panic	warehouse_rat_panic	planned	spoilage, storage trust, scarcity rumour, inspection fraud
SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0005	The Missing Tax Collector	missing_tax_collector	planned	bureaucracy dependence, queue economics, corruption, procedural power
SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0006	The Coin Shortage	coin_shortage	planned	credit vs cash, barter, discounting, debt notes, trust networks
SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0007	The Sudden Rainstorm	sudden_rainstorm	planned	weather risk, infrastructure fragility, drainage geography, transport delay
SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0008	The Sick Mule Market	sick_mule_market	planned	transport dependency, veterinary risk, replacement cost, cascading shortage
SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0009	The Timber Auction	timber_auction	planned	bidding behaviour, storage capacity, future demand forecasting
SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0010	The Fire Sale Estate	fire_sale_estate	planned	distressed assets, debt priority, insider knowledge, hidden defects
SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0011	The Shipwreck Survivor	shipwreck_survivor	planned	insurance, salvage rights, truth vs fraud, distress pricing

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4. Tier B — Institutional and Political Events

These scenarios teach the relationship between legal and political structure and commercial opportunity. They require cast members with IVS_ACCESSVS and AVCTORITAS parameters to respond differently from those without.

ID	Title	Token	Status	Teaching
SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0012	The Funeral of a Patron	patron_funeral	planned	patronage collapse, inheritance uncertainty, CLIENTELA network disruption
SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0013	The New Edict Posted	new_edict	planned	law shocks markets, literacy advantage, compliance costs, loopholes
SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0014	The Senator's Arrival	senator_arrival	planned	prestige demand, rapid procurement, temporary price spikes, elite access
SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0015	The Temple Festival Week	temple_festival	planned	calendar economics, ritual demand, leisure spending, AVCTORITAS display
SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0016	The Public Lawsuit	public_lawsuit	planned	witnesses, rhetoric, enforceability, legal cost vs settlement
SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0017	The Dockside Brawl	dockside_brawl	planned	labour disruption, ethnic enclaves, security premiums, district reputation
SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0018	The Counterfeit Scale	counterfeit_scale	planned	trust, measurement standards, enforcement, public scandal

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5. Tier C — Social Capital Events

These scenarios teach AVCTORITAS, CLIENTELA, and FAMA as economic forces — not as background flavour but as resources that open and close commercial opportunities.

ID	Title	Token	Status	Teaching
SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0019	The Marriage Contract	marriage_contract	planned	dowry economics, alliance markets, AVCTORITAS transfer, household strategy
SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0020	The Freedman Banquet Invitation	freedman_banquet	planned	status mobility, stigma, signalling, social markets

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6. Historical Reality Scenarios

These scenarios are internal instruments only — not player-facing content.

They exist to map the parameter schema for aspects of Roman life that the economic model cannot be honest without. Their purpose is schema definition, not gameplay. They are maintained in docs/architecture/historical-reality-parameters.md.

These are not scenarios in the gameplay sense. They do not have hidden cause variants or replayability controls. They document parameter domains, affected existing parameters, and new parameters required. Academic sources are cited.

Domain	Document	Status
Enslaved labour	docs/architecture/historical-reality-parameters.md §1	canonical
Legal and status discrimination	docs/architecture/historical-reality-parameters.md §2	canonical
Commercial sex	docs/architecture/historical-reality-parameters.md §3	canonical
Public violence and the arena	docs/architecture/historical-reality-parameters.md §4	canonical

Design principle: these domains are modelled as parameters and economic forces. The simulation does not editorialise. It models. The participant encounters these as the MERCATOR encounters them — as the texture of the world they operate in, not as moral choices presented for approval.

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7. Future Scenario Domains — Not Yet Scoped

These are identified needs, not committed scenarios. They will be developed when the simulation requires them.

Domain	Notes
Mesolithic scenarios	Parallel library for CIVICVS — foraging, seasonal movement, territorial negotiation, material exchange. Vocabulary from corpus development.
Maritime scenarios	Open-sea ITINERA — NAUFRAGIVM probability, MARE CLAVSVM constraints, crew management, piracy.
Multi-route scenarios	The MERCATOR managing simultaneous NEGOTIA on different routes — opportunity cost, personnel delegation, FACTOR trust.
Seasonal arc scenarios	A sequence of scenarios spanning a full Roman agricultural and commercial year — spring opening, summer peak, autumn harvest, winter MARE CLAVSVM.

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8. Scenario Status Definitions

Status	Meaning
canonical	Fully developed, committed to repo, passes structural rule
planned	Identified, listed, structural rule not yet applied
in_development	Being drafted in current session
deferred	Identified but blocked on dependencies
deprecated	Superseded — retained for record, not for use

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9. Cross-Reference: Scenarios and Parameter Registry

Every scenario exposes a subset of parameters from docs/architecture/parameter-registry.md. The mapping below shows which parameter domains each tier primarily activates.

Tier	Primary parameter domains
Prologue	All actor parameters, background_drift, information_quality
Founding Trilogy	workshop_output_bronze, timber_stock_destroyed, borrower_distress, urban_fire_damage, rumor_credibility, venture_window_days
Tier A — Supply	cart_availability, porter_availability, storage_fee_index, food_price_index, rumor_velocity, dock_congestion, fire_risk_index
Tier B — Institutional	ius_accessus, legal_access_index, officia_burden, auctoritas, clientela
Tier C — Social	auctoritas, clientela, fama, officia_burden, background_drift
Historical Reality	See docs/architecture/historical-reality-parameters.md

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Scenario Index — living document, 2026-04-28 The engine: one visible signal, one uncertain truth, one hidden second-order effect, six different readings, no single obvious correct choice. TheRON — single contributor. AI assistants implement, document, flag — do not direct.