7.7 KiB
CORPUS-0004
Source Motive Changes Confidence
Status: Training Corpus Seed
Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
Purpose: Teach that the reliability of a report depends partly on what the source may gain or avoid by shaping the report
Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0004-source-motive-changes-confidence.md
0. Scenario
A trader in Ostia hears that oil prices in Capua are rising.
The report comes from a cart owner who has empty space heading toward Capua.
The report may be true.
But the source benefits if the trader believes it and hires the cart.
The trader must evaluate the report and the source's motive separately.
1. Report Received
A cart owner says:
Oil is selling high in Capua. If you have stock, send it now.
The same cart owner then adds:
I have space leaving today.
This does not prove the report is false.
It does mean the source has a reason to make the opportunity sound urgent.
2. Known Facts
| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Location of trader | Ostia |
| Destination discussed | Capua |
| Good | oil |
| Reported condition | Capua price rising |
| Source | cart owner |
| Source benefit if believed | cart space sold |
| Current true Capua price | unknown |
3. Why Motive Matters
A source may shape a report because he wants:
- cart space sold
- goods bought
- goods avoided
- a rival delayed
- a buyer reassured
- a creditor calmed
- a price raised or lowered
- attention moved away from another fact
Motive does not equal falsehood.
Motive changes confidence.
0. Scenario
A trader in Ostia hears that oil prices in Capua are rising.
The report comes from a cart owner who has empty space heading toward Capua.
The report may be true.
But the source benefits if the trader believes it and hires the cart.
The trader must evaluate the report and the source's motive separately.
1. Report Received
A cart owner says:
Oil is selling high in Capua. If you have stock, send it now.
The same cart owner then adds:
I have space leaving today.
This does not prove the report is false.
It does mean the source has a reason to make the opportunity sound urgent.
2. Known Facts
| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Location of trader | Ostia |
| Destination discussed | Capua |
| Good | oil |
| Reported condition | Capua price rising |
| Source | cart owner |
| Source benefit if believed | cart space sold |
| Current true Capua price | unknown |
4. Possible Interpretations
Interpretation A — Report True
Oil really is selling high in Capua.
The cart owner is both informed and self-interested.
Interpretation B — Report Exaggerated
Oil sells somewhat higher, but not enough to justify urgency.
The cart owner amplifies the price to fill space.
Interpretation C — Report Stale
The cart owner heard old news and repeats it because it helps him.
Interpretation D — Report False
The cart owner invents or distorts the claim to sell transport.
The trader must not assume which interpretation is correct without more evidence.
0. Scenario
A trader in Ostia hears that oil prices in Capua are rising.
The report comes from a cart owner who has empty space heading toward Capua.
The report may be true.
But the source benefits if the trader believes it and hires the cart.
The trader must evaluate the report and the source's motive separately.
1. Report Received
A cart owner says:
Oil is selling high in Capua. If you have stock, send it now.
The same cart owner then adds:
I have space leaving today.
This does not prove the report is false.
It does mean the source has a reason to make the opportunity sound urgent.
2. Known Facts
| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Location of trader | Ostia |
| Destination discussed | Capua |
| Good | oil |
| Reported condition | Capua price rising |
| Source | cart owner |
| Source benefit if believed | cart space sold |
| Current true Capua price | unknown |
5. Correct Model Behavior
The model should separate:
| Category | Meaning |
|---|---|
| claim_content | what the source says |
| source_identity | who says it |
| source_motive | what the source may gain |
| source_access | whether the source could plausibly know |
| report_age | how old the information may be |
| confidence_adjustment | how motive changes reliability |
| action_decision | whether to act, verify, reduce exposure, or decline |
A motivated source can still provide useful information.
The confidence should be adjusted, not automatically set to zero.
6. Incorrect Model Behavior
The model should not:
- accept a report at face value because it is useful
- reject every motivated report as false
- ignore who benefits if the actor believes the report
- confuse motive with proof of deception
- ignore whether the source could plausibly know
- treat all sources as equally reliable
- calculate final profit from a motivated report alone
7. Decision Options
The trader may:
- ask a second source
- negotiate lower cart terms
- send a smaller cargo
- reserve cart space conditionally
- ask when the source heard the report
- compare other transport prices
- act quickly while accepting source-risk
- decline and wait for better confirmation
The best action depends on margin, urgency, and confidence.
8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used
This example uses:
Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenlyLayer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-informationLayer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-lossLayer_0/CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditionsLayer_0/CORPUS-0020-posture-changes-by-audienceLayer_1/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-priceLayer_2/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-reportLayer_2/CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports
9. Success Condition
If the model sees a report and asks not only what was said, but who benefits if it is believed, this file is functioning correctly.