4.5 KiB
CORPUS-0011
Quality Uncertainty
Status: Training Corpus Seed
Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
Purpose: Teach that a reported good may exist, but its quality, condition, suitability, or usable quantity may remain uncertain until inspected or used
Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0011-quality-uncertainty.md
0. Scenario
A trader in Ostia hears that timber is available for sale.
The report is true.
The timber exists.
But the trader does not yet know whether the timber is dry, straight, strong, damaged, green, warped, or suitable for the intended buyer in Capua.
The uncertainty is not whether the good exists.
The uncertainty is whether the good can serve the intended use.
1. Report Received
A seller says:
I have timber ready for shipment.
This statement may be true.
But it does not answer:
- what kind of timber?
- how dry is it?
- how straight is it?
- what length and thickness?
- was it stored well?
- does it fit the buyer's need?
- how much is actually usable?
Existence is not quality.
2. Known Facts
| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Location | Ostia |
| Good | timber |
| Reported availability | yes |
| Intended destination | Capua |
| Intended use | cart repair stock |
| Timber quality | unknown |
| Usable quantity | unknown |
| Inspection status | not inspected |
The trader knows that timber exists.
He does not yet know whether it is the right timber.
3. Why Quality Matters
Quality changes value.
Timber that is dry and straight may be useful for cart repair.
Timber that is green, warped, or split may be worth less.
The same reported quantity can produce different outcomes:
| True Quality | Effect |
|---|---|
| dry and straight | suitable for higher-value use |
| green | may require waiting or sell lower |
| warped | may not fit repair demand |
| partially damaged | usable quantity lower than claimed |
| mixed stock | sorting cost required |
A good's name does not define its usable value.
4. Arithmetic Variants
Variant A — Suitable Timber
sale value = 48 asses
total cost = 40 asses
result = 8 asses profit
Variant B — Mixed Quality
Only part of the timber fits the repair use.
sale value = 42 asses
total cost = 40 asses
result = 2 asses profit
Variant C — Unsuitable Timber
The timber sells only for ordinary use.
sale value = 34 asses
total cost = 40 asses
result = 6 asses loss
The report was true in all three variants.
The quality changed the outcome.
5. Correct Model Behavior
The model should separate:
| Category | Meaning |
|---|---|
| good_exists | whether the good is present |
| stated_quality | what seller claims |
| inspected_quality | what buyer or agent verifies |
| intended_use | what the buyer wants it for |
| suitability | whether quality fits intended use |
| usable_quantity | amount that can actually serve the use |
| quality_discount | value reduction from defects or mismatch |
The model should not assume a reported good is suitable merely because it exists.
6. Incorrect Model Behavior
The model should not:
- treat all timber as identical
- assume seller claim equals true quality
- ignore storage condition
- ignore intended use
- ignore sorting cost
- ignore unusable portion
- calculate profit before suitability is known
- treat quality uncertainty as the same as price uncertainty
Price may be known while quality remains uncertain.
Quality may be known while price remains uncertain.
7. Decision Options
The trader may:
- inspect the timber personally
- send a trusted carpenter
- demand lower price for uncertainty
- buy only after sorting
- buy a smaller quantity
- accept risk for a better price
- reject the cargo if suitability matters too much
- redirect unsuitable timber to a lower-value use
Quality uncertainty can be managed, but not ignored.
8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used
This example uses:
Layer_0/CORPUS-0004-cost-includes-more-than-purchase-priceLayer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-lossLayer_0/CORPUS-0015-materials-can-change-value-through-useLayer_1/CORPUS-0008-material-redirection-timberLayer_2/CORPUS-0003-visible-signal-vs-spoken-claimLayer_2/CORPUS-0005-hidden-true-state-vs-known-stateLayer_2/CORPUS-0006-confirmation-has-a-cost
9. Success Condition
If the model sees that a good exists and still asks whether its quality, condition, usable quantity, and suitability match the intended use, this file is functioning correctly.