6.2 KiB
SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0003
The FAENVS Offer
Status: Canonical Scenario Seed
Layer: OTIVM (Roman Merchant)
Purpose: Merchant-opportunity scenario driven by credit deployment, distress finance, AVCTORITAS leverage, and non-cargo NEGOTIVM
Repository Path: docs/scenarios/SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0003.md
0. Design Intent
Not every profitable NEGOTIVM moves cargo.
This scenario validates that a MERCATOR may profit by deploying liquidity, reputation, and legal position into a distressed market without conducting ITER.
The participant should learn that capital can move faster than wagons.
This scenario exists to validate:
- finance as a parallel economic layer
- AVCTORITAS as usable capital
- default and collateral risk
- social cost of predatory lending
- liquidity trade-offs versus cargo ventures
- scenario chaining after 0001 and 0002
1. Canonical Identifier
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Scenario ID | SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0003 |
| Title | The FAENVS Offer |
| Token | faenus_offer |
| Domain | merchant |
| Repeatable | yes |
| Hidden Truth Variants | yes |
2. Setting
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary City | Capua |
| Merchant Origin | Ostia |
| Scenario Trigger | recent industrial fire / contractor distress |
| Counterparty Type | timber contractor, forge clan, workshop owner, transport syndicate |
| Venture Form | loan, partnership, advance purchase, debt acquisition |
3. Historical Basis
Roman commerce extensively used private credit, partnership arrangements, delayed settlement, and lending at interest. Enforcement depended not only on law, but on witnesses, status, patronage, and reputation.
Attitudes toward lending were mixed: common and necessary, but socially suspect when seen as exploitative.
This scenario is an analogue synthesis, not a claim of one recorded transaction.
Confidence: Medium
Sources: Roman legal history; Cicero correspondence; scholarship on Roman credit networks and private finance.
4. Visible Event
A distressed contractor seeks immediate liquidity after recent losses.
Observed signs may include:
- unpaid workers
- halted rebuilding
- discounted inventory sale
- urgent meetings with creditors
- family silver pledged
- public denial of insolvency
- requests for short-term capital
Need is visible. True solvency is not.
5. Hidden Counterparty Truth Variants
| Token | Description |
|---|---|
| recoverable_shortfall | temporary cash gap, viable business |
| concealed_insolvency | collapse already inevitable |
| asset_rich_cash_poor | valuable collateral, no liquidity |
| politically_protected | repayment likely through influence |
| fraudulent_borrower | seeks funds with no intent to repay |
| honest_but_unlucky | good risk harmed by disaster |
| rival_backing_pending | alternative finance imminent |
Signals only. No certainty.
6. Merchant Actions
| Action | Description |
|---|---|
| short_term_loan | lend cash at agreed return |
| secured_loan | lend against pledged assets |
| advance_purchase | pay now for future stock at discount |
| partnership_finance | fund rebuild for share of profits |
| debt_claim_purchase | buy existing debt cheaply |
| decline_offer | preserve liquidity for cargo ventures |
7. Immediate Effects (0–7 days)
| Effect | Direction |
|---|---|
| contractor liquidity | up |
| merchant liquidity | down |
| worker confidence | possible up |
| rumor volume | up |
| rival lenders | up |
| price of pledged assets | re-evaluated |
8. Secondary Effects (7–30 days)
| Effect | Direction |
|---|---|
| rebuild speed | up or down |
| repayment probability | resolves gradually |
| merchant reputation | up or down |
| access to future deals | up or down |
| legal disputes | possible |
| cargo opportunity cost | up |
9. Tertiary Effects (30+ days)
| Effect | Direction |
|---|---|
| durable patronage ties | possible |
| recurring income stream | possible |
| asset seizure | possible |
| political enemies | possible |
| elevated AVCTORITAS | possible |
| damaged standing as usurer | possible |
10. Scenario Chain Logic
If SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0001 or 0002 occurred recently:
- distressed borrowers more common
- collateral cheaper
- demand for liquidity higher
- default risk also higher
- profitable terms available sooner
Shock events should create finance opportunities.
11. Parameters With Confidence Tags
| Parameter Token | Type | Confidence | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| principal_amount | finance | High | direct contract term |
| interest_rate | finance | Medium | negotiated / context dependent |
| repayment_term_days | temporal | High | direct contract term |
| collateral_value | asset | Medium | appraisal uncertainty |
| borrower_reliability | actor | Low | inferred reputation |
| legal_enforceability | institutional | Low | status + witnesses + politics |
| default_probability | risk | Low | composite estimate |
| reputation_cost | social | Low | context dependent |
| liquidity_locked | finance | High | merchant capital committed |
| future_deal_access | social | Low | downstream effect |
12. Relations
borrower_distress ↑ -> credit_demand ↑
credit_demand ↑ -> offered_return ↑
merchant_auctoritas ↑ -> borrower_quality ↑
merchant_auctoritas ↑ -> default_probability ↓
interest_rate ↑ -> reputation_cost ↑
collateral_value ↑ -> downside_risk ↓
liquidity_locked ↑ -> cargo_venture_capacity ↓
recent_fire_scenarios == true -> profitable_offers ↑
legal_enforceability ↓ -> collateral_importance ↑
13. Replayability Controls
Randomize:
- borrower truth state
- amount requested
- collateral quality
- hidden rival lender
- magistrate alignment
- repayment punctuality
- witness reliability
- broader market recovery speed
14. Repository Use
Internal simulation substrate. Not player-facing text.
Use to validate:
- finance without cargo movement
- AVCTORITAS utility
- actor reputation systems
- legal uncertainty
- liquidity opportunity cost
- scenario compounding across economic layers
15. Canonical Success Condition
If the participant stops asking:
“What can I carry?”
and starts asking:
“Whose need can I price?”
then the scenario is functioning correctly.