otivm/docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0013-military-demand-precedes-confirmation.md

CORPUS-0013

Military Demand Precedes Confirmation

Status: Training Corpus Seed

Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty

Purpose: Teach that army or garrison activity may affect supplies before civilians know the official reason

Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0013-military-demand-precedes-confirmation.md

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0. Scenario

A trader in Ostia notices that fodder prices are rising, cart space is harder to reserve, and smiths are receiving unusual orders.

No official announcement has been made.

A rumor says a nearby garrison may be preparing movement, reinforcement, or supply expansion.

The trader does not yet know whether the rumor is true.

But the market is already changing.

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1. Visible Signals

The trader observes:

• muleteers asking higher rates
• fodder sellers holding back stock
• cart owners refusing casual hire
• smiths buying iron and charcoal early
• warehouse clerks asking about dry storage
• grain dealers becoming less flexible
• road talk increasing near the gate

None of these signals proves military movement alone.

Together, they suggest organized demand may be forming.

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2. Hidden True State

Possible true states:

Hidden True State	Meaning
routine resupply	normal garrison provisioning
temporary drill	short-term local demand
unit transfer	carts, fodder, food, and tools needed
frontier preparation	larger and longer supply pressure
false rumor	market reaction based on misread signals
private contractor order	non-military demand mistaken for military demand

The trader sees effects before knowing cause.

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3. Why Military Demand Matters

Military or garrison demand can affect ordinary markets because it may absorb:

• grain
• fodder
• carts
• draft animals
• repair labor
• tools
• leather
• rope
• timber
• oil and wine
• storage space
• road capacity

The army does not need to buy everything to affect prices.

It may change expectations simply by reserving capacity.

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4. Arithmetic Example

A trader plans to send oil from Ostia to Capua.

Original estimate:

purchase price = 10 asses
transport cost = 5 asses
other cost = 2 asses
expected sale value = 22 asses
expected result = 5 asses profit

After suspected military demand:

purchase price = 10 asses
transport cost = 8 asses
other cost = 2 asses
expected sale value = 22 asses
expected result = 2 asses profit

The destination price did not change.

The transport market changed.

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5. Confirmation Problem

The trader may want to confirm the cause.

But confirmation may be slow.

Possible confirmation paths:

• ask a veteran contact
• watch cart reservations
• speak with a fodder seller
• observe warehouse requests
• listen at the baths
• compare gate traffic
• wait for official notice

By the time confirmation arrives, transport and supplies may already be committed.

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6. Correct Model Behavior

The model should separate:

Category	Meaning
visible_market_effect	what has already changed
rumored_cause	what actors say explains it
true_cause	hidden simulation state
affected_inputs	goods and services under pressure
confirmation_cost	cost of learning more
action_window	time before market adjusts further

The model should recognize that effects may be real even before the cause is confirmed.

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7. Incorrect Model Behavior

The model should not:

• wait for official confirmation before allowing market effects
• assume military rumor is true because prices moved
• assume price movement has only one cause
• ignore transport, fodder, and labor effects
• treat army demand as affecting only weapons
• assume civilians know the official reason immediately
• ignore ordinary traders reacting to suspected demand

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8. Decision Options

The trader may:

• reserve cart space before rates rise further
• avoid ventures dependent on scarce transport
• buy fodder early
• sell into rising supply pressure
• seek substitute routes
• reduce cargo size
• wait for confirmation and accept timing loss
• investigate through contacts with military or transport knowledge

Each choice trades uncertainty against timing.

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9. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used

This example uses:

• Layer_0/CORPUS-0002-goods-have-local-prices
• Layer_0/CORPUS-0004-cost-includes-more-than-purchase-price
• Layer_0/CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost
• Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly
• Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information
• Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss
• Layer_0/CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions
• Layer_1/CORPUS-0007-rival-buys-the-cart-space
• Layer_1/CORPUS-0011-round-trip-cart-value
• Layer_2/CORPUS-0003-visible-signal-vs-spoken-claim
• Layer_2/CORPUS-0006-confirmation-has-a-cost
• Layer_2/CORPUS-0007-acting-before-certainty

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10. Success Condition

If the model sees rising fodder, transport, storage, or tool pressure and asks whether organized demand may be forming before official confirmation, this file is functioning correctly.