obsolete
This commit is contained in:
@@ -1,167 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
# CORPUS-0004
|
|
||||||
## Source Motive Changes Confidence
|
|
||||||
### Status: Training Corpus Seed
|
|
||||||
### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
|
|
||||||
### Purpose: Teach that the reliability of a report depends partly on what the source may gain or avoid by shaping the report
|
|
||||||
### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0004-source-motive-changes-confidence.md
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
---
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
## 0. Scenario
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
A trader in Ostia hears that oil prices in Capua are rising.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The report comes from a cart owner who has empty space heading toward Capua.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The report may be true.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
But the source benefits if the trader believes it and hires the cart.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The trader must evaluate the report and the source's motive separately.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
---
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
## 1. Report Received
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
A cart owner says:
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
> Oil is selling high in Capua. If you have stock, send it now.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The same cart owner then adds:
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
> I have space leaving today.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
This does not prove the report is false.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
It does mean the source has a reason to make the opportunity sound urgent.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
---
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
## 2. Known Facts
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
| Fact | Value |
|
|
||||||
|---|---|
|
|
||||||
| Location of trader | Ostia |
|
|
||||||
| Destination discussed | Capua |
|
|
||||||
| Good | oil |
|
|
||||||
| Reported condition | Capua price rising |
|
|
||||||
| Source | cart owner |
|
|
||||||
| Source benefit if believed | cart space sold |
|
|
||||||
| Current true Capua price | unknown |
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
---
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
## 3. Why Motive Matters
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
A source may shape a report because he wants:
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
- cart space sold
|
|
||||||
- goods bought
|
|
||||||
- goods avoided
|
|
||||||
- a rival delayed
|
|
||||||
- a buyer reassured
|
|
||||||
- a creditor calmed
|
|
||||||
- a price raised or lowered
|
|
||||||
- attention moved away from another fact
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Motive does not equal falsehood.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Motive changes confidence.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
---
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
## 4. Possible Interpretations
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
### Interpretation A — Report True
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Oil really is selling high in Capua.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The cart owner is both informed and self-interested.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
### Interpretation B — Report Exaggerated
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Oil sells somewhat higher, but not enough to justify urgency.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The cart owner amplifies the price to fill space.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
### Interpretation C — Report Stale
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The cart owner heard old news and repeats it because it helps him.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
### Interpretation D — Report False
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The cart owner invents or distorts the claim to sell transport.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The trader must not assume which interpretation is correct without more evidence.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
---
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
## 5. Correct Model Behavior
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The model should separate:
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
| Category | Meaning |
|
|
||||||
|---|---|
|
|
||||||
| claim_content | what the source says |
|
|
||||||
| source_identity | who says it |
|
|
||||||
| source_motive | what the source may gain |
|
|
||||||
| source_access | whether the source could plausibly know |
|
|
||||||
| report_age | how old the information may be |
|
|
||||||
| confidence_adjustment | how motive changes reliability |
|
|
||||||
| action_decision | whether to act, verify, reduce exposure, or decline |
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
A motivated source can still provide useful information.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The confidence should be adjusted, not automatically set to zero.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
---
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
## 6. Incorrect Model Behavior
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The model should not:
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
- accept a report at face value because it is useful
|
|
||||||
- reject every motivated report as false
|
|
||||||
- ignore who benefits if the actor believes the report
|
|
||||||
- confuse motive with proof of deception
|
|
||||||
- ignore whether the source could plausibly know
|
|
||||||
- treat all sources as equally reliable
|
|
||||||
- calculate final profit from a motivated report alone
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
---
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
## 7. Decision Options
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The trader may:
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
- ask a second source
|
|
||||||
- negotiate lower cart terms
|
|
||||||
- send a smaller cargo
|
|
||||||
- reserve cart space conditionally
|
|
||||||
- ask when the source heard the report
|
|
||||||
- compare other transport prices
|
|
||||||
- act quickly while accepting source-risk
|
|
||||||
- decline and wait for better confirmation
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The best action depends on margin, urgency, and confidence.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
---
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
## 8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
This example uses:
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly`
|
|
||||||
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information`
|
|
||||||
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss`
|
|
||||||
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions`
|
|
||||||
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0020-posture-changes-by-audience`
|
|
||||||
- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price`
|
|
||||||
- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report`
|
|
||||||
- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports`
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
---
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
## 9. Success Condition
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
If the model sees a report and asks not only what was said, but who benefits if it is believed, this file is functioning correctly.
|
|
||||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user