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docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report.md

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-# CORPUS-0001
-## Stale Price Report
-### Status: Training Corpus Seed
-### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
-### Purpose: Teach that a report may be true when spoken but unreliable when acted upon because time has passed
-### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report.md
-
----
-
-## 0. Scenario
-
-A trader in Ostia hears that oil sold for a high price in Capua.
-
-The report may be accurate.
-
-But the report is three days old.
-
-The trader must decide whether the old price still helps him.
-
-A true report can become dangerous when stale.
-
----
-
-## 1. Report Received
-
-A muleteer says:
-
-> Oil sold in Capua for 22 asses.
-
-The trader asks when the muleteer left Capua.
-
-The answer:
-
-> Three days ago.
-
-The reported price may have been real then.
-
-It may not be real now.
-
----
-
-## 2. Known Facts
-
-| Fact | Value |
-|---|---|
-| Origin | Ostia |
-| Destination | Capua |
-| Good | oil |
-| Reported Capua sale price | 22 asses |
-| Report age | 3 days |
-| Current Capua price | unknown |
-| Travel time from Ostia to Capua | not yet resolved |
-| Rival shipments | unknown |
-
----
-
-## 3. Why Staleness Matters
-
-During three days:
-
-- a rival shipment may have arrived
-- the urgent buyer may have already purchased
-- local supply may have changed
-- rumor may have spread
-- sellers may have raised prices at origin
-- transport space may have been reserved
-- the buyer's need may have disappeared
-
-The report can be true and still no longer useful.
-
----
-
-## 4. Possible Outcomes
-
-### Outcome A — Report Still Useful
-
-The price remains high.
-
-```text
-reported price = 22 asses
-actual sale price = 22 asses
-```
-
-The trader benefits from acting on the report.
-
-### Outcome B — Report Partly Stale
-
-Some demand remains, but the best buyer is gone.
-
-```text
-reported price = 22 asses
-actual sale price = 18 asses
-```
-
-The venture may still work, but margin narrows.
-
-### Outcome C — Report Fully Stale
-
-A rival shipment arrived first.
-
-```text
-reported price = 22 asses
-actual sale price = 14 asses
-```
-
-The report was true when spoken, but harmful when acted upon as current.
-
----
-
-## 5. Correct Model Behavior
-
-The model should separate:
-
-| Category | Meaning |
-|---|---|
-| report_content | what was claimed |
-| report_age | how old the report is |
-| report_truth_at_origin | whether it was true when observed |
-| current_truth | whether it remains true now |
-| action_delay | time before the trader can act |
-| price_decay_risk | chance that the reported price no longer holds |
-
-A report is not only true or false.
-
-It is also fresh or stale.
-
----
-
-## 6. Incorrect Model Behavior
-
-The model should not:
-
-- treat a true old report as current certainty
-- ignore report age
-- ignore travel time after receiving the report
-- assume demand remains unchanged
-- assume no rival acted during the delay
-- treat stale information as useless in all cases
-- collapse freshness and truth into one value
-
----
-
-## 7. Decision Questions
-
-The trader must ask:
-
-- who gave the report?
-- when did they leave Capua?
-- did they witness a sale or repeat talk?
-- how fast can I act?
-- who else has heard the same report?
-- how quickly can the price change?
-- is the reported price tied to one buyer or general demand?
-- what happens if the price falls before arrival?
-
----
-
-## 8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used
-
-This example uses:
-
-- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0002-goods-have-local-prices`
-- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost`
-- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly`
-- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information`
-- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss`
-- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price`
-- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0007-rival-buys-the-cart-space`
-
----
-
-## 9. Success Condition
-
-If the model can recognize that a report may be true, useful, stale, or dangerous depending on age and action delay, this file is functioning correctly.