obsolete
This commit is contained in:
@@ -1,174 +0,0 @@
|
||||
# CORPUS-0001
|
||||
## Stale Price Report
|
||||
### Status: Training Corpus Seed
|
||||
### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
|
||||
### Purpose: Teach that a report may be true when spoken but unreliable when acted upon because time has passed
|
||||
### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report.md
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 0. Scenario
|
||||
|
||||
A trader in Ostia hears that oil sold for a high price in Capua.
|
||||
|
||||
The report may be accurate.
|
||||
|
||||
But the report is three days old.
|
||||
|
||||
The trader must decide whether the old price still helps him.
|
||||
|
||||
A true report can become dangerous when stale.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 1. Report Received
|
||||
|
||||
A muleteer says:
|
||||
|
||||
> Oil sold in Capua for 22 asses.
|
||||
|
||||
The trader asks when the muleteer left Capua.
|
||||
|
||||
The answer:
|
||||
|
||||
> Three days ago.
|
||||
|
||||
The reported price may have been real then.
|
||||
|
||||
It may not be real now.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 2. Known Facts
|
||||
|
||||
| Fact | Value |
|
||||
|---|---|
|
||||
| Origin | Ostia |
|
||||
| Destination | Capua |
|
||||
| Good | oil |
|
||||
| Reported Capua sale price | 22 asses |
|
||||
| Report age | 3 days |
|
||||
| Current Capua price | unknown |
|
||||
| Travel time from Ostia to Capua | not yet resolved |
|
||||
| Rival shipments | unknown |
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 3. Why Staleness Matters
|
||||
|
||||
During three days:
|
||||
|
||||
- a rival shipment may have arrived
|
||||
- the urgent buyer may have already purchased
|
||||
- local supply may have changed
|
||||
- rumor may have spread
|
||||
- sellers may have raised prices at origin
|
||||
- transport space may have been reserved
|
||||
- the buyer's need may have disappeared
|
||||
|
||||
The report can be true and still no longer useful.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 4. Possible Outcomes
|
||||
|
||||
### Outcome A — Report Still Useful
|
||||
|
||||
The price remains high.
|
||||
|
||||
```text
|
||||
reported price = 22 asses
|
||||
actual sale price = 22 asses
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
The trader benefits from acting on the report.
|
||||
|
||||
### Outcome B — Report Partly Stale
|
||||
|
||||
Some demand remains, but the best buyer is gone.
|
||||
|
||||
```text
|
||||
reported price = 22 asses
|
||||
actual sale price = 18 asses
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
The venture may still work, but margin narrows.
|
||||
|
||||
### Outcome C — Report Fully Stale
|
||||
|
||||
A rival shipment arrived first.
|
||||
|
||||
```text
|
||||
reported price = 22 asses
|
||||
actual sale price = 14 asses
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
The report was true when spoken, but harmful when acted upon as current.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 5. Correct Model Behavior
|
||||
|
||||
The model should separate:
|
||||
|
||||
| Category | Meaning |
|
||||
|---|---|
|
||||
| report_content | what was claimed |
|
||||
| report_age | how old the report is |
|
||||
| report_truth_at_origin | whether it was true when observed |
|
||||
| current_truth | whether it remains true now |
|
||||
| action_delay | time before the trader can act |
|
||||
| price_decay_risk | chance that the reported price no longer holds |
|
||||
|
||||
A report is not only true or false.
|
||||
|
||||
It is also fresh or stale.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 6. Incorrect Model Behavior
|
||||
|
||||
The model should not:
|
||||
|
||||
- treat a true old report as current certainty
|
||||
- ignore report age
|
||||
- ignore travel time after receiving the report
|
||||
- assume demand remains unchanged
|
||||
- assume no rival acted during the delay
|
||||
- treat stale information as useless in all cases
|
||||
- collapse freshness and truth into one value
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 7. Decision Questions
|
||||
|
||||
The trader must ask:
|
||||
|
||||
- who gave the report?
|
||||
- when did they leave Capua?
|
||||
- did they witness a sale or repeat talk?
|
||||
- how fast can I act?
|
||||
- who else has heard the same report?
|
||||
- how quickly can the price change?
|
||||
- is the reported price tied to one buyer or general demand?
|
||||
- what happens if the price falls before arrival?
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used
|
||||
|
||||
This example uses:
|
||||
|
||||
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0002-goods-have-local-prices`
|
||||
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost`
|
||||
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly`
|
||||
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information`
|
||||
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss`
|
||||
- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price`
|
||||
- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0007-rival-buys-the-cart-space`
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 9. Success Condition
|
||||
|
||||
If the model can recognize that a report may be true, useful, stale, or dangerous depending on age and action delay, this file is functioning correctly.
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user