initial upload
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# CORPUS-0011
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## Round-Trip Cart Value
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### Status: Training Corpus Seed
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### Layer: Layer_1--Worked_Examples
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### Purpose: Teach that transport capacity may create value in both directions, and that a route should not always be evaluated as a one-way movement
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### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0011-round-trip-cart-value.md
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---
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<!-- chunk:
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id: CORPUS-0011::01::calculation
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source_file: CORPUS-0011-round-trip-cart-value.md
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repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0011-round-trip-cart-value.md
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domain: commerce
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layer: Layer_1--Worked_Examples
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document_id: CORPUS-0011
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document_title: Round-Trip Cart Value
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section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. One-Way Assumption + 2. Known Facts ...
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chunk_role: calculation
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concept_tags:
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- round
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- trip
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- cart
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- value
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- calculation
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- worked_examples
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knowledge_state:
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- actor_visible
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- settled_result
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- designer_analysis
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actors: []
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-->
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## 0. Scenario
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A trader in Ostia wants to send goods to Capua.
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A cart from Capua has already arrived in Ostia carrying raw material.
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The cart must return to Capua.
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If the trader can load the return trip, the cart owner avoids travelling empty, and the trader may obtain better terms.
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The same physical journey can carry value in both directions.
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---
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## 1. One-Way Assumption
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A weak model may treat transport as a simple one-way purchase:
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```text
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Ostia -> Capua cart hire = 10 asses
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```
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If the trader must pay the whole hire, the cost may erase profit.
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But if the cart already needs to return to Capua, the trader may only need to pay for unused return capacity.
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The cart's prior movement matters.
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---
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## 2. Known Facts
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| Fact | Value |
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|---|---:|
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| Cart origin | Capua |
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| Cart current location | Ostia |
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| Cart must return to Capua | yes |
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| Normal one-way hire Ostia -> Capua | 10 asses |
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| Reduced return-leg rate | 5 asses |
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| Trader's cargo value in Ostia | 20 asses |
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| Expected sale value in Capua | 32 asses |
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| Other handling costs | 3 asses |
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---
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## 3. One-Way Calculation
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If the trader pays full one-way hire:
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```text
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purchase value: 20 asses
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cart hire: 10 asses
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other handling: 3 asses
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------------------------------
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total cost: 33 asses
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sale value: 32 asses
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result: 1 as loss
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```
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The venture fails by arithmetic.
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---
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## 4. Return-Leg Calculation
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If the trader uses the cart's required return trip:
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```text
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purchase value: 20 asses
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return-leg rate: 5 asses
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other handling: 3 asses
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------------------------------
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total cost: 28 asses
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sale value: 32 asses
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result: 4 asses profit
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```
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The same cargo and destination become viable because transport capacity was already moving.
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---
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## 5. Why The Cart Owner Accepts
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The cart owner may accept the reduced return-leg rate because:
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- the cart must return to Capua anyway
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- empty return earns nothing
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- the load offsets animal feed and driver time
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- the trader pays promptly
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- the trader may offer repeat business
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- the cargo is easy to handle
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The reduced rate is not generosity.
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It is shared use of existing movement.
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---
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<!-- /chunk -->
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---
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<!-- chunk:
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id: CORPUS-0011::02::risk_variant
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source_file: CORPUS-0011-round-trip-cart-value.md
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repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0011-round-trip-cart-value.md
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domain: commerce
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layer: Layer_1--Worked_Examples
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document_id: CORPUS-0011
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document_title: Round-Trip Cart Value
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section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. One-Way Assumption + 6. Round-Trip Exchange Variant
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...
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chunk_role: risk_variant
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concept_tags:
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- round
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- trip
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- cart
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- value
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- risk_variant
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- worked_examples
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knowledge_state:
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- actor_visible
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- settled_result
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- designer_analysis
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actors: []
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-->
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## 0. Scenario
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A trader in Ostia wants to send goods to Capua.
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A cart from Capua has already arrived in Ostia carrying raw material.
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The cart must return to Capua.
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If the trader can load the return trip, the cart owner avoids travelling empty, and the trader may obtain better terms.
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The same physical journey can carry value in both directions.
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---
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## 1. One-Way Assumption
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A weak model may treat transport as a simple one-way purchase:
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```text
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Ostia -> Capua cart hire = 10 asses
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```
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If the trader must pay the whole hire, the cost may erase profit.
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But if the cart already needs to return to Capua, the trader may only need to pay for unused return capacity.
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The cart's prior movement matters.
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---
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## 6. Round-Trip Exchange Variant
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The arrangement may include value in both directions:
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### Capua -> Ostia
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The cart brings:
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- raw timber
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- wool
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- charcoal
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- agricultural goods
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- workshop material
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### Ostia -> Capua
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The cart returns with:
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- oil
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- imported goods
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- tools
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- household supplies
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- finished stock
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- letters or documents
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Each leg may serve a different party.
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The trader may profit not by owning the cart, but by understanding that the cart should not return empty.
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---
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## 7. Household Supply Variant
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The return cargo may not all be market cargo.
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A Capua cart owner may ask to carry supplies for his household:
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- oil
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- fish sauce
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- cloth
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- tools
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- small luxury items
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- medicines or prepared goods
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These goods may partly settle the transport agreement.
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This creates a mixed exchange:
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```text
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cash payment
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+ goods carried for household use
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+ future hauling preference
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```
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The model should not treat household supply as irrelevant.
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It can be part of the transport bargain.
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---
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## 8. Risks Of Linked Legs
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A round-trip arrangement can fail because either leg fails.
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Risk examples:
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- inbound cargo arrives late
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- cart needs repair before return
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- animals are tired
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- driver changes terms after arrival
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- outbound cargo is not ready
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- return cargo is heavier than expected
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- goods for household use are disputed in value
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- delay on first leg destroys profit on second leg
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A round-trip plan may reduce cost, but it increases dependency between events.
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---
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<!-- /chunk -->
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---
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<!-- chunk:
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id: CORPUS-0011::03::success_condition
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source_file: CORPUS-0011-round-trip-cart-value.md
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repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0011-round-trip-cart-value.md
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domain: commerce
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layer: Layer_1--Worked_Examples
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document_id: CORPUS-0011
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document_title: Round-Trip Cart Value
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section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. One-Way Assumption + 9. Correct Model Behavior ...
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chunk_role: success_condition
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concept_tags:
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- round
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- trip
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- cart
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- value
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- success_condition
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- worked_examples
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knowledge_state:
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||||
- actor_visible
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||||
- settled_result
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- designer_analysis
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actors: []
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-->
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## 0. Scenario
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A trader in Ostia wants to send goods to Capua.
|
||||
|
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A cart from Capua has already arrived in Ostia carrying raw material.
|
||||
|
||||
The cart must return to Capua.
|
||||
|
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If the trader can load the return trip, the cart owner avoids travelling empty, and the trader may obtain better terms.
|
||||
|
||||
The same physical journey can carry value in both directions.
|
||||
|
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---
|
||||
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||||
## 1. One-Way Assumption
|
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|
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A weak model may treat transport as a simple one-way purchase:
|
||||
|
||||
```text
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Ostia -> Capua cart hire = 10 asses
|
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```
|
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|
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If the trader must pay the whole hire, the cost may erase profit.
|
||||
|
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But if the cart already needs to return to Capua, the trader may only need to pay for unused return capacity.
|
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The cart's prior movement matters.
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---
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## 9. Correct Model Behavior
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The model should ask:
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- does the cart need to return anyway?
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- is return capacity empty?
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- who controls the cart?
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- what did the cart carry inbound?
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- what can it carry outbound?
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- does return cargo reduce effective transport cost?
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- are cash, goods, and future obligations combined?
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- what risks link the two legs?
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Transport is not only a price.
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It is moving capacity across time and direction.
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---
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## 10. Incorrect Model Behavior
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The model should not:
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- treat every cart hire as isolated one-way cost
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- ignore why the cart is already in Ostia
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- ignore empty return capacity
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- ignore household supply as value
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- assume reduced rate is unexplained discount
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- ignore linked-leg risk
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- calculate each leg without considering the whole movement
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---
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## 11. Layer-0 Concepts Used
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This example uses:
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- `CORPUS-0001-trade-requires-two-locations`
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- `CORPUS-0004-cost-includes-more-than-purchase-price`
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- `CORPUS-0005-profit-is-sale-minus-total-cost`
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- `CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost`
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- `CORPUS-0009-liquidity-differs-from-wealth`
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- `CORPUS-0013-non-coin-settlement-exists`
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- `CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions`
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---
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## 12. Success Condition
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If the model sees a cart moving between two cities and asks whether both directions can carry value before calculating transport cost, this file is functioning correctly.
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<!-- /chunk -->
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---
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@@ -0,0 +1,366 @@
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# CORPUS-0012
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## Reputation Loss Changes Future Arithmetic
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### Status: Training Corpus Seed
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||||
### Layer: Layer_1--Worked_Examples
|
||||
### Purpose: Teach that reputation loss does not rewrite the settled account of a completed venture, but can change the costs, access, and margins of future ventures
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### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0012-reputation-loss-changes-future-arithmetic.md
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|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- chunk:
|
||||
id: CORPUS-0012::01::calculation
|
||||
source_file: CORPUS-0012-reputation-loss-changes-future-arithmetic.md
|
||||
repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0012-reputation-loss-changes-future-arithmetic.md
|
||||
domain: commerce
|
||||
layer: Layer_1--Worked_Examples
|
||||
document_id: CORPUS-0012
|
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document_title: Reputation Loss Changes Future Arithmetic
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section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. Completed Venture Arithmetic + 2. Reputation Damage
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...
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chunk_role: calculation
|
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concept_tags:
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- reputation
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- loss
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- changes
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- future
|
||||
- arithmetic
|
||||
- calculation
|
||||
- worked_examples
|
||||
knowledge_state:
|
||||
- actor_visible
|
||||
- settled_result
|
||||
- designer_analysis
|
||||
actors: []
|
||||
-->
|
||||
|
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## 0. Scenario
|
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A trader sends oil from Ostia to Capua.
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|
||||
The venture produces coin profit.
|
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|
||||
However, the trader delivers late and handles the buyer poorly.
|
||||
|
||||
The completed venture remains profitable by arithmetic.
|
||||
|
||||
But reputation loss changes the conditions of future ventures.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
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## 1. Completed Venture Arithmetic
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| Item | Value |
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|---|---:|
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| Sale value in Capua | 24 asses |
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| Purchase price in Ostia | 10 asses |
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| Movement and handling | 6 asses |
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| Storage and incidental cost | 2 asses |
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|
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Total cost:
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||||
|
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```text
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10 + 6 + 2 = 18 asses
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```
|
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|
||||
Immediate result:
|
||||
|
||||
```text
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||||
24 - 18 = 6 asses profit
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||||
```
|
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||||
The venture made 6 asses.
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||||
|
||||
Reputation loss does not change that settled arithmetic.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 2. Reputation Damage
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||||
|
||||
The buyer expected delivery sooner.
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||||
|
||||
The trader arrived late and blamed others instead of settling the matter cleanly.
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||||
|
||||
The buyer paid, but now trusts the trader less.
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||||
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||||
Possible effects:
|
||||
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||||
- buyer demands a lower price next time
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- buyer refuses advance agreement
|
||||
- seller hears of late delivery
|
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- cart driver asks for coin upfront
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- warehouse keeper stops extending easy terms
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||||
- information from Capua becomes slower or less reliable
|
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The immediate venture remains profitable.
|
||||
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||||
The next venture becomes harder.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 3. Future Venture Before Reputation Loss
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||||
|
||||
Before reputation damage, the trader expected:
|
||||
|
||||
| Item | Value |
|
||||
|---|---:|
|
||||
| Expected sale value | 24 asses |
|
||||
| Purchase price | 10 asses |
|
||||
| Transport cost | 6 asses |
|
||||
| Other costs | 2 asses |
|
||||
|
||||
Expected result:
|
||||
|
||||
```text
|
||||
24 - (10 + 6 + 2) = 6 asses profit
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 4. Future Venture After Reputation Loss
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||||
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||||
After reputation damage:
|
||||
|
||||
- buyer offers 22 asses instead of 24
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||||
- cart driver requires 2 extra asses upfront
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||||
- seller refuses delayed payment, reducing liquidity flexibility
|
||||
|
||||
New arithmetic:
|
||||
|
||||
| Item | Value |
|
||||
|---|---:|
|
||||
| Sale value | 22 asses |
|
||||
| Purchase price | 10 asses |
|
||||
| Transport cost | 8 asses |
|
||||
| Other costs | 2 asses |
|
||||
|
||||
New result:
|
||||
|
||||
```text
|
||||
22 - (10 + 8 + 2) = 2 asses profit
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
The same route still works, but margin falls from 6 asses to 2 asses.
|
||||
|
||||
Reputation loss became arithmetic through changed terms.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- /chunk -->
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- chunk:
|
||||
id: CORPUS-0012::02::risk_variant
|
||||
source_file: CORPUS-0012-reputation-loss-changes-future-arithmetic.md
|
||||
repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0012-reputation-loss-changes-future-arithmetic.md
|
||||
domain: commerce
|
||||
layer: Layer_1--Worked_Examples
|
||||
document_id: CORPUS-0012
|
||||
document_title: Reputation Loss Changes Future Arithmetic
|
||||
section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. Completed Venture Arithmetic + 5. Harder Variant
|
||||
chunk_role: risk_variant
|
||||
concept_tags:
|
||||
- reputation
|
||||
- loss
|
||||
- changes
|
||||
- future
|
||||
- arithmetic
|
||||
- risk_variant
|
||||
- worked_examples
|
||||
knowledge_state:
|
||||
- actor_visible
|
||||
- settled_result
|
||||
- designer_analysis
|
||||
actors: []
|
||||
-->
|
||||
|
||||
## 0. Scenario
|
||||
|
||||
A trader sends oil from Ostia to Capua.
|
||||
|
||||
The venture produces coin profit.
|
||||
|
||||
However, the trader delivers late and handles the buyer poorly.
|
||||
|
||||
The completed venture remains profitable by arithmetic.
|
||||
|
||||
But reputation loss changes the conditions of future ventures.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 1. Completed Venture Arithmetic
|
||||
|
||||
| Item | Value |
|
||||
|---|---:|
|
||||
| Sale value in Capua | 24 asses |
|
||||
| Purchase price in Ostia | 10 asses |
|
||||
| Movement and handling | 6 asses |
|
||||
| Storage and incidental cost | 2 asses |
|
||||
|
||||
Total cost:
|
||||
|
||||
```text
|
||||
10 + 6 + 2 = 18 asses
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
Immediate result:
|
||||
|
||||
```text
|
||||
24 - 18 = 6 asses profit
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
The venture made 6 asses.
|
||||
|
||||
Reputation loss does not change that settled arithmetic.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 5. Harder Variant
|
||||
|
||||
If reputation damage is worse:
|
||||
|
||||
| Item | Value |
|
||||
|---|---:|
|
||||
| Sale value | 21 asses |
|
||||
| Purchase price | 10 asses |
|
||||
| Transport cost | 9 asses |
|
||||
| Other costs | 3 asses |
|
||||
|
||||
Result:
|
||||
|
||||
```text
|
||||
21 - (10 + 9 + 3) = 1 as loss
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
A route that was once profitable now fails.
|
||||
|
||||
The physical route did not change.
|
||||
|
||||
The actor's social terms changed.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- /chunk -->
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- chunk:
|
||||
id: CORPUS-0012::03::success_condition
|
||||
source_file: CORPUS-0012-reputation-loss-changes-future-arithmetic.md
|
||||
repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0012-reputation-loss-changes-future-arithmetic.md
|
||||
domain: commerce
|
||||
layer: Layer_1--Worked_Examples
|
||||
document_id: CORPUS-0012
|
||||
document_title: Reputation Loss Changes Future Arithmetic
|
||||
section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. Completed Venture Arithmetic + 6. Correct Model
|
||||
Behavior ...
|
||||
chunk_role: success_condition
|
||||
concept_tags:
|
||||
- reputation
|
||||
- loss
|
||||
- changes
|
||||
- future
|
||||
- arithmetic
|
||||
- success_condition
|
||||
- worked_examples
|
||||
knowledge_state:
|
||||
- actor_visible
|
||||
- settled_result
|
||||
- designer_analysis
|
||||
actors: []
|
||||
-->
|
||||
|
||||
## 0. Scenario
|
||||
|
||||
A trader sends oil from Ostia to Capua.
|
||||
|
||||
The venture produces coin profit.
|
||||
|
||||
However, the trader delivers late and handles the buyer poorly.
|
||||
|
||||
The completed venture remains profitable by arithmetic.
|
||||
|
||||
But reputation loss changes the conditions of future ventures.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 1. Completed Venture Arithmetic
|
||||
|
||||
| Item | Value |
|
||||
|---|---:|
|
||||
| Sale value in Capua | 24 asses |
|
||||
| Purchase price in Ostia | 10 asses |
|
||||
| Movement and handling | 6 asses |
|
||||
| Storage and incidental cost | 2 asses |
|
||||
|
||||
Total cost:
|
||||
|
||||
```text
|
||||
10 + 6 + 2 = 18 asses
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
Immediate result:
|
||||
|
||||
```text
|
||||
24 - 18 = 6 asses profit
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
The venture made 6 asses.
|
||||
|
||||
Reputation loss does not change that settled arithmetic.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 6. Correct Model Behavior
|
||||
|
||||
The model should separate:
|
||||
|
||||
| Category | Meaning |
|
||||
|---|---|
|
||||
| settled arithmetic | result of completed venture |
|
||||
| reputation effect | change in trust, access, or terms |
|
||||
| future arithmetic | later costs and sale values altered by reputation |
|
||||
| access condition | whether actors will still transact |
|
||||
| credit condition | whether delayed settlement remains available |
|
||||
|
||||
Reputation is not merely narrative flavor.
|
||||
|
||||
It changes future numbers.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 7. Incorrect Model Behavior
|
||||
|
||||
The model should not:
|
||||
|
||||
- subtract reputation loss from a completed coin result without a defined mechanism
|
||||
- rewrite a profitable settled venture as unprofitable after the fact
|
||||
- ignore reputation because it is not coin
|
||||
- treat future terms as unchanged after trust damage
|
||||
- assume reputation effects are vague and non-economic
|
||||
- ignore access loss, higher costs, or worse prices
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 8. Layer-0 Concepts Used
|
||||
|
||||
This example uses:
|
||||
|
||||
- `CORPUS-0005-profit-is-sale-minus-total-cost`
|
||||
- `CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost`
|
||||
- `CORPUS-0009-liquidity-differs-from-wealth`
|
||||
- `CORPUS-0010-credit-depends-on-trust`
|
||||
- `CORPUS-0011-status-changes-access`
|
||||
- `CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss`
|
||||
- `CORPUS-0019-success-has-no-boundary-failure-has-a-hard-stop`
|
||||
- `CORPUS-0020-posture-changes-by-audience`
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 9. Success Condition
|
||||
|
||||
If the model keeps the completed venture's arithmetic fixed while allowing reputation loss to change future costs, access, credit, and margins, this file is functioning correctly.
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- /chunk -->
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,333 @@
|
||||
# CORPUS-0013
|
||||
## Festival Demand And After-Event Bargains
|
||||
### Status: Training Corpus Seed
|
||||
### Layer: Layer_1--Worked_Examples
|
||||
### Purpose: Teach that predictable gatherings can raise demand before an event and create discounted surplus after the event
|
||||
### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0013-festival-demand-and-after-event-bargains.md
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- chunk:
|
||||
id: CORPUS-0013::01::calculation
|
||||
source_file: CORPUS-0013-festival-demand-and-after-event-bargains.md
|
||||
repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0013-festival-demand-and-after-event-bargains.md
|
||||
domain: commerce
|
||||
layer: Layer_1--Worked_Examples
|
||||
document_id: CORPUS-0013
|
||||
document_title: Festival Demand And After-Event Bargains
|
||||
section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. Before The Event + 2. During The Event ...
|
||||
chunk_role: calculation
|
||||
concept_tags:
|
||||
- festival
|
||||
- demand
|
||||
- event
|
||||
- bargains
|
||||
- calculation
|
||||
- worked_examples
|
||||
knowledge_state:
|
||||
- actor_visible
|
||||
- settled_result
|
||||
- designer_analysis
|
||||
actors: []
|
||||
-->
|
||||
|
||||
## 0. Scenario
|
||||
|
||||
A trader in Ostia learns that a festival or public gathering in Capua will increase demand for food, oil, cheap cloth, drink, lamps, and small comforts.
|
||||
|
||||
Before the event, sellers move goods toward Capua because buyers will gather there.
|
||||
|
||||
After the event, some sellers may be tired, short of coin, unwilling to pay storage, or eager to move on.
|
||||
|
||||
The same event can create two different opportunities:
|
||||
|
||||
1. selling into rising demand before the gathering
|
||||
2. buying leftover stock after the gathering and moving it to the next place
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 1. Before The Event
|
||||
|
||||
Before the event, demand may rise for:
|
||||
|
||||
- food
|
||||
- oil
|
||||
- wine
|
||||
- lamps
|
||||
- cloth
|
||||
- cheap ornaments
|
||||
- animal feed
|
||||
- lodging
|
||||
- porterage
|
||||
- temporary stalls
|
||||
- repair work
|
||||
|
||||
A trader may send goods early to sell into higher demand.
|
||||
|
||||
Example:
|
||||
|
||||
```text
|
||||
purchase value in Ostia = 20 asses
|
||||
transport and handling = 6 asses
|
||||
expected sale value in Capua before festival = 34 asses
|
||||
expected result = 8 asses profit
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
The profit depends on arriving before the demand peak is satisfied.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 2. During The Event
|
||||
|
||||
During the event:
|
||||
|
||||
- prices may rise for urgent goods
|
||||
- porterage may become expensive
|
||||
- lodging may tighten
|
||||
- carts may be unavailable
|
||||
- buyers may pay more for convenience
|
||||
- sellers may run out of stock
|
||||
- officials or local organizers may restrict certain spaces
|
||||
|
||||
The trader may profit if positioned early.
|
||||
|
||||
But late arrival can be costly.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 3. After The Event
|
||||
|
||||
After the event, unsold goods may become discounted.
|
||||
|
||||
Sellers may want to avoid:
|
||||
|
||||
- storage cost
|
||||
- return transport
|
||||
- spoilage
|
||||
- breakage
|
||||
- fatigue
|
||||
- tied-up capital
|
||||
- missed next market
|
||||
|
||||
A trader with available coin, storage, or transport may buy leftover goods below ordinary value.
|
||||
|
||||
Example:
|
||||
|
||||
```text
|
||||
leftover goods bought after event = 18 asses
|
||||
handling and storage = 4 asses
|
||||
transport to next location = 5 asses
|
||||
expected sale value elsewhere = 34 asses
|
||||
expected result = 7 asses profit
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
The bargain exists because the seller faces post-event pressure.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- /chunk -->
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- chunk:
|
||||
id: CORPUS-0013::02::success_condition
|
||||
source_file: CORPUS-0013-festival-demand-and-after-event-bargains.md
|
||||
repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_1--Worked_Examples/CORPUS-0013-festival-demand-and-after-event-bargains.md
|
||||
domain: commerce
|
||||
layer: Layer_1--Worked_Examples
|
||||
document_id: CORPUS-0013
|
||||
document_title: Festival Demand And After-Event Bargains
|
||||
section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. Before The Event + 4. Incorrect Model Behavior ...
|
||||
chunk_role: success_condition
|
||||
concept_tags:
|
||||
- festival
|
||||
- demand
|
||||
- event
|
||||
- bargains
|
||||
- success_condition
|
||||
- worked_examples
|
||||
knowledge_state:
|
||||
- actor_visible
|
||||
- settled_result
|
||||
- designer_analysis
|
||||
actors: []
|
||||
-->
|
||||
|
||||
## 0. Scenario
|
||||
|
||||
A trader in Ostia learns that a festival or public gathering in Capua will increase demand for food, oil, cheap cloth, drink, lamps, and small comforts.
|
||||
|
||||
Before the event, sellers move goods toward Capua because buyers will gather there.
|
||||
|
||||
After the event, some sellers may be tired, short of coin, unwilling to pay storage, or eager to move on.
|
||||
|
||||
The same event can create two different opportunities:
|
||||
|
||||
1. selling into rising demand before the gathering
|
||||
2. buying leftover stock after the gathering and moving it to the next place
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 1. Before The Event
|
||||
|
||||
Before the event, demand may rise for:
|
||||
|
||||
- food
|
||||
- oil
|
||||
- wine
|
||||
- lamps
|
||||
- cloth
|
||||
- cheap ornaments
|
||||
- animal feed
|
||||
- lodging
|
||||
- porterage
|
||||
- temporary stalls
|
||||
- repair work
|
||||
|
||||
A trader may send goods early to sell into higher demand.
|
||||
|
||||
Example:
|
||||
|
||||
```text
|
||||
purchase value in Ostia = 20 asses
|
||||
transport and handling = 6 asses
|
||||
expected sale value in Capua before festival = 34 asses
|
||||
expected result = 8 asses profit
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
The profit depends on arriving before the demand peak is satisfied.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 4. Incorrect Model Behavior
|
||||
|
||||
The model should not:
|
||||
|
||||
- treat festival demand as random
|
||||
- ignore predictable timing
|
||||
- assume high demand lasts forever
|
||||
- assume leftovers are worthless
|
||||
- ignore post-event seller pressure
|
||||
- ignore transport scarcity before the event
|
||||
- ignore storage pressure after the event
|
||||
- treat every after-event bargain as automatically safe
|
||||
|
||||
The event creates a cycle, not a single price change.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 5. Correct Model Behavior
|
||||
|
||||
The model should separate:
|
||||
|
||||
| Stage | Market Condition |
|
||||
|---|---|
|
||||
| before event | rising demand, transport competition |
|
||||
| during event | high urgency, crowded access, price volatility |
|
||||
| after event | surplus, fatigue, storage pressure, discounted stock |
|
||||
| next location | possible resale if demand remains unmet elsewhere |
|
||||
|
||||
The trader must identify where in the cycle he is acting.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 6. Risk Variants
|
||||
|
||||
### Variant A — Arrives Early
|
||||
|
||||
The trader reaches Capua before the event.
|
||||
|
||||
```text
|
||||
sale value = 34 asses
|
||||
total cost = 26 asses
|
||||
result = 8 asses profit
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
### Variant B — Arrives Late
|
||||
|
||||
Other sellers satisfy demand first.
|
||||
|
||||
```text
|
||||
sale value = 27 asses
|
||||
total cost = 26 asses
|
||||
result = 1 as profit
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
### Variant C — Buys Leftovers Poorly
|
||||
|
||||
The trader buys leftover goods, but they are damaged or unsuitable for the next location.
|
||||
|
||||
```text
|
||||
sale value = 24 asses
|
||||
total cost = 27 asses
|
||||
result = 3 asses loss
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
### Variant D — Buys Leftovers Well
|
||||
|
||||
The trader buys sound leftovers from tired sellers and moves them to another event location.
|
||||
|
||||
```text
|
||||
sale value = 34 asses
|
||||
total cost = 27 asses
|
||||
result = 7 asses profit
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 7. Timing Questions
|
||||
|
||||
The trader must ask:
|
||||
|
||||
- when does the event begin?
|
||||
- when does demand peak?
|
||||
- when do sellers arrive?
|
||||
- when do buyers depart?
|
||||
- which goods spoil or lose value quickly?
|
||||
- which goods remain useful after the event?
|
||||
- is transport available after the crowd leaves?
|
||||
- where is the next demand location?
|
||||
|
||||
The event calendar is an economic map.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 8. Non-Coin Settlement Variant
|
||||
|
||||
After the event, a seller may accept mixed settlement:
|
||||
|
||||
- some coin now
|
||||
- help moving goods
|
||||
- storage for one night
|
||||
- a share of resale
|
||||
- goods exchanged for transport
|
||||
- future priority at the next gathering
|
||||
|
||||
The trader should track obligations, not only coin.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 9. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used
|
||||
|
||||
This example uses:
|
||||
|
||||
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0002-goods-have-local-prices`
|
||||
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0004-cost-includes-more-than-purchase-price`
|
||||
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0005-profit-is-sale-minus-total-cost`
|
||||
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost`
|
||||
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss`
|
||||
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0013-non-coin-settlement-exists`
|
||||
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0016-opportunistic-bargains-come-from-pressure`
|
||||
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions`
|
||||
- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0003-arithmetic-resolves-the-venture`
|
||||
- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0007-rival-buys-the-cart-space`
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## 10. Success Condition
|
||||
|
||||
If the model sees a festival or public gathering and asks how demand, transport, storage, leftovers, and next-location resale change before, during, and after the event, this file is functioning correctly.
|
||||
|
||||
<!-- /chunk -->
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user