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# CORPUS-0002
## Conflicting Reports
### Status: Training Corpus Seed
### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
### Purpose: Teach that two reports about the same market can disagree, and that disagreement must be evaluated rather than averaged blindly
### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports.md
---
## 0. Scenario
A trader in Ostia hears two different reports about the price of oil in Capua.
One report says the price is high.
Another report says the price has already fallen.
Both reports may contain some truth.
The trader must compare source, age, motive, and evidence before acting.
---
## 1. Reports Received
### Report A
A muleteer says:
> Oil sold in Capua for 22 asses.
Report age: three days.
### Report B
A warehouse clerk says:
> Buyers in Capua are no longer paying more than 16 asses.
Report age: one day.
The reports conflict.
The model must not simply choose the higher number because it creates profit, or the lower number because it seems safer.
---
## 2. Known Facts
| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Origin | Ostia |
| Destination | Capua |
| Good | oil |
| Report A price | 22 asses |
| Report A age | 3 days |
| Report A source | muleteer |
| Report B price | 16 asses |
| Report B age | 1 day |
| Report B source | warehouse clerk |
| Current true price | unknown |
---
## 3. Possible Explanations
The reports may conflict because:
- Report A is true but stale
- Report B is newer and more accurate
- Report A was an exceptional sale to one urgent buyer
- Report B reflects lower-quality oil
- one source repeated hearsay
- one source has reason to influence the trader
- both reports are true for different buyers
- price changed between the two reports
Conflict does not mean one report is worthless.
It means the trader must identify what each report actually describes.
---
## 4. Incorrect Model Behavior
The model should not:
- average the prices without reason
- choose the report that makes the venture profitable
- choose the newest report automatically
- ignore source motive
- ignore quality differences
- assume all buyers in Capua pay one price
- collapse conflicting reports into simple truth/falsehood
---
## 5. Correct Model Behavior
The model should evaluate:
| Question | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| Which report is newer? | newer information may reflect current conditions |
| Which source observed directly? | witnessed sale is stronger than repeated talk |
| Which source has motive? | self-interest may distort report |
| What quality of oil was priced? | different quality may explain different prices |
| Was the price general or exceptional? | one urgent buyer does not define the whole market |
| Has supply changed? | new shipment may lower price |
| Who else has heard the report? | shared knowledge changes opportunity |
---
## 6. Decision Example
The trader calculates expected cost at 16 asses.
If Report A is current:
```text
sale value = 22 asses
total cost = 16 asses
result = 6 asses profit
```
If Report B is current:
```text
sale value = 16 asses
total cost = 16 asses
result = 0 profit
```
If the true price has fallen below both reports:
```text
sale value = 14 asses
total cost = 16 asses
result = 2 asses loss
```
The decision depends on confidence, not arithmetic alone.
Arithmetic resolves the final result after the true sale price is known.
---
## 7. Useful Action Under Conflict
The trader may:
- seek a third report
- send a runner
- reduce cargo size
- negotiate a lower purchase price
- reserve cart space conditionally
- wait and risk losing opportunity
- act quickly and accept information risk
Conflicting reports do not require paralysis.
They require adjusted commitment.
---
## 8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used
This example uses:
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0002-goods-have-local-prices`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss`
- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0003-arithmetic-resolves-the-venture`
- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price`
- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report`
---
## 9. Success Condition
If the model sees two conflicting reports and evaluates source, age, motive, quality, and scope before deciding how much confidence to place in either, this file is functioning correctly.