obsolete
This commit is contained in:
@@ -1,201 +0,0 @@
|
|||||||
# CORPUS-0008
|
|
||||||
## Rumor Changes Behavior Before Truth
|
|
||||||
### Status: Training Corpus Seed
|
|
||||||
### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
|
|
||||||
### Purpose: Teach that uncertain reports can change prices, queues, posture, and decisions before the underlying truth is confirmed
|
|
||||||
### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0008-rumor-changes-behavior-before-truth.md
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
---
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
## 0. Scenario
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
A rumor spreads in Ostia that a forge has burned and tool supply will tighten.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
No official confirmation has arrived.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The rumor may be true, false, partial, or exaggerated.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
But before anyone confirms the full truth, traders, workers, buyers, and creditors begin acting differently.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The rumor changes behavior before truth arrives.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
---
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
## 1. Initial Rumor
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
A porter says:
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
> The bronze forge is ruined. Tools will be dear by nightfall.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Known facts:
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
| Fact | Value |
|
|
||||||
|---|---|
|
|
||||||
| Visible smoke | yes |
|
|
||||||
| Forge damage confirmed | no |
|
|
||||||
| Tool shortage confirmed | no |
|
|
||||||
| Rumor spreading | yes |
|
|
||||||
| Market reaction beginning | possible |
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The rumor is not yet confirmed.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
That does not make it economically irrelevant.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
---
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
## 2. Behavior Changes Before Confirmation
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Before the truth is known:
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
- a carpenter buys spare tools early
|
|
||||||
- a trader reserves cart space for tool cargo
|
|
||||||
- a creditor visits the forge owner's house
|
|
||||||
- a rival raises asking prices
|
|
||||||
- workers gather near the district
|
|
||||||
- a seller delays sale to see whether price rises
|
|
||||||
- a buyer accepts worse terms to secure supply
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
These actions may occur before confirmed fact.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Belief itself becomes a market force.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
---
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
## 3. Possible Truth States
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
### Truth State A — Rumor Mostly True
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The forge is badly damaged.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Tool supply will fall.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Early buyers benefit.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
### Truth State B — Rumor Partial
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Only one shed burned.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Supply disruption is smaller than expected.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Some early buyers overpaid.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
### Truth State C — Rumor False Or Misread
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The smoke came from nearby storage, not the forge.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Tool prices may settle back down.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Those who acted too aggressively may lose value.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
---
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
## 4. Arithmetic Example
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
A trader buys tools for 20 asses after hearing the rumor.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
He expects to sell them for 30 asses if the shortage is real.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
### If Rumor Is True
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
```text
|
|
||||||
sale value = 30 asses
|
|
||||||
purchase cost = 20 asses
|
|
||||||
other costs = 4 asses
|
|
||||||
result = 6 asses profit
|
|
||||||
```
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
### If Rumor Is Partial
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
```text
|
|
||||||
sale value = 25 asses
|
|
||||||
purchase cost = 20 asses
|
|
||||||
other costs = 4 asses
|
|
||||||
result = 1 as profit
|
|
||||||
```
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
### If Rumor Is False
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
```text
|
|
||||||
sale value = 18 asses
|
|
||||||
purchase cost = 20 asses
|
|
||||||
other costs = 4 asses
|
|
||||||
result = 6 asses loss
|
|
||||||
```
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The rumor created the decision window.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The truth resolved the outcome.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
---
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
## 5. Correct Model Behavior
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The model should separate:
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
| Category | Meaning |
|
|
||||||
|---|---|
|
|
||||||
| rumor_content | what is being claimed |
|
|
||||||
| rumor_spread | how widely it is circulating |
|
|
||||||
| belief_effect | how actors change behavior |
|
|
||||||
| true_state | what actually happened |
|
|
||||||
| market_reaction | price, queue, and access changes caused by belief |
|
|
||||||
| final_resolution | outcome after truth and settlement |
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
Rumor can create real temporary effects even before it is true or false.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
---
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
## 6. Incorrect Model Behavior
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The model should not:
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
- ignore rumor until confirmed
|
|
||||||
- treat rumor as automatically false
|
|
||||||
- treat rumor as automatically true
|
|
||||||
- ignore behavior caused by belief
|
|
||||||
- assume prices wait for truth
|
|
||||||
- assume all actors react equally
|
|
||||||
- erase market effects if the rumor later proves false
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
False belief can still produce real movement.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
---
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
## 7. Decision Questions
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The trader must ask:
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
- who believes the rumor?
|
|
||||||
- who is already acting?
|
|
||||||
- what price has moved?
|
|
||||||
- what queue has formed?
|
|
||||||
- who is delaying sale?
|
|
||||||
- who is buying before confirmation?
|
|
||||||
- what happens if truth arrives late?
|
|
||||||
- what happens if truth contradicts belief?
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
The trader is not only evaluating truth.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
He is evaluating behavior under uncertainty.
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
---
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
## 8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
This example uses:
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost`
|
|
||||||
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly`
|
|
||||||
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information`
|
|
||||||
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss`
|
|
||||||
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions`
|
|
||||||
- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0003-arithmetic-resolves-the-venture`
|
|
||||||
- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price`
|
|
||||||
- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0005-hidden-true-state-vs-known-state`
|
|
||||||
- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0007-acting-before-certainty`
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
---
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
## 9. Success Condition
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
If the model sees a rumor and asks not only whether it is true, but how belief in it changes behavior before confirmation, this file is functioning correctly.
|
|
||||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user