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# CORPUS-0001
## Stale Price Report
### Status: Training Corpus Seed
### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
### Purpose: Teach that a report may be true when spoken but unreliable when acted upon because time has passed
### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report.md
---
<!-- chunk:
id: CORPUS-0001::01::evidence_structure
source_file: CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report.md
repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report.md
domain: commerce
layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
document_id: CORPUS-0001
document_title: Stale Price Report
section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. Report Received + 2. Known Facts ...
chunk_role: evidence_structure
concept_tags:
- stale
- price
- report
- evidence_structure
- uncertainty
knowledge_state:
- reported
- known_state
- hidden_true_state
actors: []
-->
## 0. Scenario
A trader in Ostia hears that oil sold for a high price in Capua.
The report may be accurate.
But the report is three days old.
The trader must decide whether the old price still helps him.
A true report can become dangerous when stale.
---
## 1. Report Received
A muleteer says:
> Oil sold in Capua for 22 asses.
The trader asks when the muleteer left Capua.
The answer:
> Three days ago.
The reported price may have been real then.
It may not be real now.
---
## 2. Known Facts
| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Origin | Ostia |
| Destination | Capua |
| Good | oil |
| Reported Capua sale price | 22 asses |
| Report age | 3 days |
| Current Capua price | unknown |
| Travel time from Ostia to Capua | not yet resolved |
| Rival shipments | unknown |
---
## 3. Why Staleness Matters
During three days:
- a rival shipment may have arrived
- the urgent buyer may have already purchased
- local supply may have changed
- rumor may have spread
- sellers may have raised prices at origin
- transport space may have been reserved
- the buyer's need may have disappeared
The report can be true and still no longer useful.
---
<!-- /chunk -->
---
<!-- chunk:
id: CORPUS-0001::02::truth_variants
source_file: CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report.md
repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report.md
domain: commerce
layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
document_id: CORPUS-0001
document_title: Stale Price Report
section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. Report Received + 2. Known Facts ...
chunk_role: truth_variants
concept_tags:
- stale
- price
- report
- truth_variants
- uncertainty
knowledge_state:
- reported
- known_state
- hidden_true_state
actors: []
-->
## 0. Scenario
A trader in Ostia hears that oil sold for a high price in Capua.
The report may be accurate.
But the report is three days old.
The trader must decide whether the old price still helps him.
A true report can become dangerous when stale.
---
## 1. Report Received
A muleteer says:
> Oil sold in Capua for 22 asses.
The trader asks when the muleteer left Capua.
The answer:
> Three days ago.
The reported price may have been real then.
It may not be real now.
---
## 2. Known Facts
| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Origin | Ostia |
| Destination | Capua |
| Good | oil |
| Reported Capua sale price | 22 asses |
| Report age | 3 days |
| Current Capua price | unknown |
| Travel time from Ostia to Capua | not yet resolved |
| Rival shipments | unknown |
---
## 4. Possible Outcomes
### Outcome A — Report Still Useful
The price remains high.
```text
reported price = 22 asses
actual sale price = 22 asses
```
The trader benefits from acting on the report.
### Outcome B — Report Partly Stale
Some demand remains, but the best buyer is gone.
```text
reported price = 22 asses
actual sale price = 18 asses
```
The venture may still work, but margin narrows.
### Outcome C — Report Fully Stale
A rival shipment arrived first.
```text
reported price = 22 asses
actual sale price = 14 asses
```
The report was true when spoken, but harmful when acted upon as current.
---
<!-- /chunk -->
---
<!-- chunk:
id: CORPUS-0001::03::uncertainty_behavior
source_file: CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report.md
repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report.md
domain: commerce
layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
document_id: CORPUS-0001
document_title: Stale Price Report
section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. Report Received + 2. Known Facts ...
chunk_role: uncertainty_behavior
concept_tags:
- stale
- price
- report
- uncertainty_behavior
- uncertainty
knowledge_state:
- reported
- known_state
- inferred
actors: []
-->
## 0. Scenario
A trader in Ostia hears that oil sold for a high price in Capua.
The report may be accurate.
But the report is three days old.
The trader must decide whether the old price still helps him.
A true report can become dangerous when stale.
---
## 1. Report Received
A muleteer says:
> Oil sold in Capua for 22 asses.
The trader asks when the muleteer left Capua.
The answer:
> Three days ago.
The reported price may have been real then.
It may not be real now.
---
## 2. Known Facts
| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Origin | Ostia |
| Destination | Capua |
| Good | oil |
| Reported Capua sale price | 22 asses |
| Report age | 3 days |
| Current Capua price | unknown |
| Travel time from Ostia to Capua | not yet resolved |
| Rival shipments | unknown |
---
## 5. Correct Model Behavior
The model should separate:
| Category | Meaning |
|---|---|
| report_content | what was claimed |
| report_age | how old the report is |
| report_truth_at_origin | whether it was true when observed |
| current_truth | whether it remains true now |
| action_delay | time before the trader can act |
| price_decay_risk | chance that the reported price no longer holds |
A report is not only true or false.
It is also fresh or stale.
---
## 6. Incorrect Model Behavior
The model should not:
- treat a true old report as current certainty
- ignore report age
- ignore travel time after receiving the report
- assume demand remains unchanged
- assume no rival acted during the delay
- treat stale information as useless in all cases
- collapse freshness and truth into one value
---
## 7. Decision Questions
The trader must ask:
- who gave the report?
- when did they leave Capua?
- did they witness a sale or repeat talk?
- how fast can I act?
- who else has heard the same report?
- how quickly can the price change?
- is the reported price tied to one buyer or general demand?
- what happens if the price falls before arrival?
---
## 8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used
This example uses:
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0002-goods-have-local-prices`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0006-delay-is-economic-cost`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss`
- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price`
- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0007-rival-buys-the-cart-space`
---
## 9. Success Condition
If the model can recognize that a report may be true, useful, stale, or dangerous depending on age and action delay, this file is functioning correctly.
<!-- /chunk -->
---

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# CORPUS-0002
## Conflicting Reports
### Status: Training Corpus Seed
### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
### Purpose: Teach that two reports about the same market can disagree, and that disagreement must be evaluated rather than averaged blindly
### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports.md
---
<!-- chunk:
id: CORPUS-0002::01::evidence_structure
source_file: CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports.md
repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports.md
domain: commerce
layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
document_id: CORPUS-0002
document_title: Conflicting Reports
section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. Reports Received + Report A ...
chunk_role: evidence_structure
concept_tags:
- conflicting
- reports
- evidence_structure
- uncertainty
knowledge_state:
- reported
- known_state
- hidden_true_state
actors: []
-->
## 0. Scenario
A trader in Ostia hears two different reports about the price of oil in Capua.
One report says the price is high.
Another report says the price has already fallen.
Both reports may contain some truth.
The trader must compare source, age, motive, and evidence before acting.
---
## 1. Reports Received
### Report A
A muleteer says:
> Oil sold in Capua for 22 asses.
Report age: three days.
### Report B
A warehouse clerk says:
> Buyers in Capua are no longer paying more than 16 asses.
Report age: one day.
The reports conflict.
The model must not simply choose the higher number because it creates profit, or the lower number because it seems safer.
---
## 2. Known Facts
| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Origin | Ostia |
| Destination | Capua |
| Good | oil |
| Report A price | 22 asses |
| Report A age | 3 days |
| Report A source | muleteer |
| Report B price | 16 asses |
| Report B age | 1 day |
| Report B source | warehouse clerk |
| Current true price | unknown |
---
<!-- /chunk -->
---
<!-- chunk:
id: CORPUS-0002::02::truth_variants
source_file: CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports.md
repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports.md
domain: commerce
layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
document_id: CORPUS-0002
document_title: Conflicting Reports
section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. Reports Received + Report A ...
chunk_role: truth_variants
concept_tags:
- conflicting
- reports
- truth_variants
- uncertainty
knowledge_state:
- reported
- known_state
- hidden_true_state
actors: []
-->
## 0. Scenario
A trader in Ostia hears two different reports about the price of oil in Capua.
One report says the price is high.
Another report says the price has already fallen.
Both reports may contain some truth.
The trader must compare source, age, motive, and evidence before acting.
---
## 1. Reports Received
### Report A
A muleteer says:
> Oil sold in Capua for 22 asses.
Report age: three days.
## 3. Possible Explanations
The reports may conflict because:
- Report A is true but stale
- Report B is newer and more accurate
- Report A was an exceptional sale to one urgent buyer
- Report B reflects lower-quality oil
- one source repeated hearsay
- one source has reason to influence the trader
- both reports are true for different buyers
- price changed between the two reports
Conflict does not mean one report is worthless.
It means the trader must identify what each report actually describes.
---
<!-- /chunk -->
---
<!-- chunk:
id: CORPUS-0002::03::uncertainty_behavior
source_file: CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports.md
repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports.md
domain: commerce
layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
document_id: CORPUS-0002
document_title: Conflicting Reports
section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. Reports Received + Report A ...
chunk_role: uncertainty_behavior
concept_tags:
- conflicting
- reports
- uncertainty_behavior
- uncertainty
knowledge_state:
- reported
- known_state
- inferred
actors: []
-->
## 0. Scenario
A trader in Ostia hears two different reports about the price of oil in Capua.
One report says the price is high.
Another report says the price has already fallen.
Both reports may contain some truth.
The trader must compare source, age, motive, and evidence before acting.
---
## 1. Reports Received
### Report A
A muleteer says:
> Oil sold in Capua for 22 asses.
Report age: three days.
## 4. Incorrect Model Behavior
The model should not:
- average the prices without reason
- choose the report that makes the venture profitable
- choose the newest report automatically
- ignore source motive
- ignore quality differences
- assume all buyers in Capua pay one price
- collapse conflicting reports into simple truth/falsehood
---
## 5. Correct Model Behavior
The model should evaluate:
| Question | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| Which report is newer? | newer information may reflect current conditions |
| Which source observed directly? | witnessed sale is stronger than repeated talk |
| Which source has motive? | self-interest may distort report |
| What quality of oil was priced? | different quality may explain different prices |
| Was the price general or exceptional? | one urgent buyer does not define the whole market |
| Has supply changed? | new shipment may lower price |
| Who else has heard the report? | shared knowledge changes opportunity |
---
## 6. Decision Example
The trader calculates expected cost at 16 asses.
If Report A is current:
```text
sale value = 22 asses
total cost = 16 asses
result = 6 asses profit
```
If Report B is current:
```text
sale value = 16 asses
total cost = 16 asses
result = 0 profit
```
If the true price has fallen below both reports:
```text
sale value = 14 asses
total cost = 16 asses
result = 2 asses loss
```
The decision depends on confidence, not arithmetic alone.
Arithmetic resolves the final result after the true sale price is known.
---
## 7. Useful Action Under Conflict
The trader may:
- seek a third report
- send a runner
- reduce cargo size
- negotiate a lower purchase price
- reserve cart space conditionally
- wait and risk losing opportunity
- act quickly and accept information risk
Conflicting reports do not require paralysis.
They require adjusted commitment.
---
## 8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used
This example uses:
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0002-goods-have-local-prices`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss`
- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0003-arithmetic-resolves-the-venture`
- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price`
- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report`
---
## 9. Success Condition
If the model sees two conflicting reports and evaluates source, age, motive, quality, and scope before deciding how much confidence to place in either, this file is functioning correctly.
<!-- /chunk -->
---

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# CORPUS-0003
## Visible Signal Versus Spoken Claim
### Status: Training Corpus Seed
### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
### Purpose: Teach that observed signals and spoken claims are different evidence types, and that each must be evaluated by source, timing, and interpretation
### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0003-visible-signal-vs-spoken-claim.md
---
<!-- chunk:
id: CORPUS-0003::01::evidence_structure
source_file: CORPUS-0003-visible-signal-vs-spoken-claim.md
repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0003-visible-signal-vs-spoken-claim.md
domain: commerce
layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
document_id: CORPUS-0003
document_title: Visible Signal Versus Spoken Claim
section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. Evidence Received + Spoken Claim ...
chunk_role: evidence_structure
concept_tags:
- visible
- signal
- spoken
- claim
- evidence_structure
- uncertainty
knowledge_state:
- reported
- known_state
- hidden_true_state
actors: []
-->
## 0. Scenario
A trader in Ostia hears that a warehouse has run out of oil.
At the same time, he sees carts leaving the warehouse loaded and sealed.
The spoken claim and the visible signal do not match cleanly.
The trader must decide whether the claim, the visible signal, or some third explanation is most useful.
---
## 1. Evidence Received
### Spoken Claim
A porter says:
> The warehouse is empty of oil.
### Visible Signal
The trader sees:
- three carts leaving the warehouse
- sealed jars loaded under guard
- the warehouse doors partly closed
- clerks arguing near the entrance
The claim says shortage.
The signal may suggest movement, concealment, restricted access, prior sale, inspection, or reserved stock.
---
## 2. Known Facts
| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Location | Ostia |
| Good | oil |
| Spoken claim | warehouse empty |
| Visible signal | carts leaving with sealed jars |
| Source of claim | porter |
| True warehouse state | unknown |
| Destination of carts | unknown |
| Ownership of loaded goods | unknown |
---
## 3. Why Signals Matter
Visible signals may be stronger than casual speech, but they are not self-explaining.
A cart leaving a warehouse may mean:
- goods are available
- goods are already sold
- goods are being hidden
- goods are being moved under contract
- goods are being removed after inspection
- goods are being transferred to another owner
- goods are not oil at all
Observation reduces uncertainty only when interpreted carefully.
---
## 4. Why Speech Still Matters
A spoken claim may be wrong, but it may contain context the eye cannot see.
The porter may know:
- which jars were oil
- who ordered the movement
- whether the remaining stock is spoken for
- whether the warehouse is closed to ordinary buyers
- whether the carts are moving damaged goods
- whether the clerk is lying
Speech can explain a signal.
But speech may also distort it.
---
<!-- /chunk -->
---
<!-- chunk:
id: CORPUS-0003::02::uncertainty_behavior
source_file: CORPUS-0003-visible-signal-vs-spoken-claim.md
repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0003-visible-signal-vs-spoken-claim.md
domain: commerce
layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
document_id: CORPUS-0003
document_title: Visible Signal Versus Spoken Claim
section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. Evidence Received + Spoken Claim ...
chunk_role: uncertainty_behavior
concept_tags:
- visible
- signal
- spoken
- claim
- uncertainty_behavior
- uncertainty
knowledge_state:
- reported
- known_state
- inferred
actors: []
-->
## 0. Scenario
A trader in Ostia hears that a warehouse has run out of oil.
At the same time, he sees carts leaving the warehouse loaded and sealed.
The spoken claim and the visible signal do not match cleanly.
The trader must decide whether the claim, the visible signal, or some third explanation is most useful.
---
## 1. Evidence Received
### Spoken Claim
A porter says:
> The warehouse is empty of oil.
## 5. Incorrect Model Behavior
The model should not:
- treat visible evidence as automatically complete
- treat spoken claims as automatically false
- ignore who made the claim
- ignore what the visible signal actually proves
- assume carts leaving means stock is available
- assume a warehouse is empty because one porter said so
- collapse observation and interpretation into one fact
---
## 6. Correct Model Behavior
The model should separate:
| Category | Meaning |
|---|---|
| observed signal | what was directly seen |
| spoken claim | what someone said |
| inferred meaning | what the actor thinks it means |
| confidence level | how reliable the interpretation is |
| missing fact | what remains unknown |
Example:
```text
observed_signal: three sealed carts left warehouse
spoken_claim: warehouse empty of oil
inference_options: sold_out | reserved_stock | hidden_transfer | false_claim
confidence: unresolved
```
---
## 7. Decision Example
The trader must decide whether to act.
Possible actions:
- ask a second source
- follow the carts
- ask who owns the jars
- check another warehouse price
- delay purchase until confirmed
- buy remaining oil elsewhere before others react
- avoid acting until the signal is clearer
The visible signal matters because it may reveal action before official explanation.
The spoken claim matters because it may reveal interpretation before visible proof.
---
## 8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used
This example uses:
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0020-posture-changes-by-audience`
- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price`
- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports`
---
## 9. Success Condition
If the model can distinguish what was directly observed from what was claimed, and can avoid treating either as complete truth without interpretation, this file is functioning correctly.
<!-- /chunk -->
---

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# CORPUS-0004
## Source Motive Changes Confidence
### Status: Training Corpus Seed
### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
### Purpose: Teach that the reliability of a report depends partly on what the source may gain or avoid by shaping the report
### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0004-source-motive-changes-confidence.md
---
<!-- chunk:
id: CORPUS-0004::01::evidence_structure
source_file: CORPUS-0004-source-motive-changes-confidence.md
repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0004-source-motive-changes-confidence.md
domain: commerce
layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
document_id: CORPUS-0004
document_title: Source Motive Changes Confidence
section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. Report Received + 2. Known Facts ...
chunk_role: evidence_structure
concept_tags:
- source
- motive
- changes
- confidence
- evidence_structure
- uncertainty
knowledge_state:
- reported
- known_state
- hidden_true_state
actors: []
-->
## 0. Scenario
A trader in Ostia hears that oil prices in Capua are rising.
The report comes from a cart owner who has empty space heading toward Capua.
The report may be true.
But the source benefits if the trader believes it and hires the cart.
The trader must evaluate the report and the source's motive separately.
---
## 1. Report Received
A cart owner says:
> Oil is selling high in Capua. If you have stock, send it now.
The same cart owner then adds:
> I have space leaving today.
This does not prove the report is false.
It does mean the source has a reason to make the opportunity sound urgent.
---
## 2. Known Facts
| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Location of trader | Ostia |
| Destination discussed | Capua |
| Good | oil |
| Reported condition | Capua price rising |
| Source | cart owner |
| Source benefit if believed | cart space sold |
| Current true Capua price | unknown |
---
## 3. Why Motive Matters
A source may shape a report because he wants:
- cart space sold
- goods bought
- goods avoided
- a rival delayed
- a buyer reassured
- a creditor calmed
- a price raised or lowered
- attention moved away from another fact
Motive does not equal falsehood.
Motive changes confidence.
---
<!-- /chunk -->
---
<!-- chunk:
id: CORPUS-0004::02::truth_variants
source_file: CORPUS-0004-source-motive-changes-confidence.md
repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0004-source-motive-changes-confidence.md
domain: commerce
layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
document_id: CORPUS-0004
document_title: Source Motive Changes Confidence
section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. Report Received + 2. Known Facts ...
chunk_role: truth_variants
concept_tags:
- source
- motive
- changes
- confidence
- truth_variants
- uncertainty
knowledge_state:
- reported
- known_state
- hidden_true_state
actors: []
-->
## 0. Scenario
A trader in Ostia hears that oil prices in Capua are rising.
The report comes from a cart owner who has empty space heading toward Capua.
The report may be true.
But the source benefits if the trader believes it and hires the cart.
The trader must evaluate the report and the source's motive separately.
---
## 1. Report Received
A cart owner says:
> Oil is selling high in Capua. If you have stock, send it now.
The same cart owner then adds:
> I have space leaving today.
This does not prove the report is false.
It does mean the source has a reason to make the opportunity sound urgent.
---
## 2. Known Facts
| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Location of trader | Ostia |
| Destination discussed | Capua |
| Good | oil |
| Reported condition | Capua price rising |
| Source | cart owner |
| Source benefit if believed | cart space sold |
| Current true Capua price | unknown |
---
## 4. Possible Interpretations
### Interpretation A — Report True
Oil really is selling high in Capua.
The cart owner is both informed and self-interested.
### Interpretation B — Report Exaggerated
Oil sells somewhat higher, but not enough to justify urgency.
The cart owner amplifies the price to fill space.
### Interpretation C — Report Stale
The cart owner heard old news and repeats it because it helps him.
### Interpretation D — Report False
The cart owner invents or distorts the claim to sell transport.
The trader must not assume which interpretation is correct without more evidence.
---
<!-- /chunk -->
---
<!-- chunk:
id: CORPUS-0004::03::uncertainty_behavior
source_file: CORPUS-0004-source-motive-changes-confidence.md
repository_path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0004-source-motive-changes-confidence.md
domain: commerce
layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
document_id: CORPUS-0004
document_title: Source Motive Changes Confidence
section_heading: 0. Scenario + 1. Report Received + 2. Known Facts ...
chunk_role: uncertainty_behavior
concept_tags:
- source
- motive
- changes
- confidence
- uncertainty_behavior
- uncertainty
knowledge_state:
- reported
- known_state
- inferred
actors: []
-->
## 0. Scenario
A trader in Ostia hears that oil prices in Capua are rising.
The report comes from a cart owner who has empty space heading toward Capua.
The report may be true.
But the source benefits if the trader believes it and hires the cart.
The trader must evaluate the report and the source's motive separately.
---
## 1. Report Received
A cart owner says:
> Oil is selling high in Capua. If you have stock, send it now.
The same cart owner then adds:
> I have space leaving today.
This does not prove the report is false.
It does mean the source has a reason to make the opportunity sound urgent.
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## 2. Known Facts
| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Location of trader | Ostia |
| Destination discussed | Capua |
| Good | oil |
| Reported condition | Capua price rising |
| Source | cart owner |
| Source benefit if believed | cart space sold |
| Current true Capua price | unknown |
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## 5. Correct Model Behavior
The model should separate:
| Category | Meaning |
|---|---|
| claim_content | what the source says |
| source_identity | who says it |
| source_motive | what the source may gain |
| source_access | whether the source could plausibly know |
| report_age | how old the information may be |
| confidence_adjustment | how motive changes reliability |
| action_decision | whether to act, verify, reduce exposure, or decline |
A motivated source can still provide useful information.
The confidence should be adjusted, not automatically set to zero.
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## 6. Incorrect Model Behavior
The model should not:
- accept a report at face value because it is useful
- reject every motivated report as false
- ignore who benefits if the actor believes the report
- confuse motive with proof of deception
- ignore whether the source could plausibly know
- treat all sources as equally reliable
- calculate final profit from a motivated report alone
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## 7. Decision Options
The trader may:
- ask a second source
- negotiate lower cart terms
- send a smaller cargo
- reserve cart space conditionally
- ask when the source heard the report
- compare other transport prices
- act quickly while accepting source-risk
- decline and wait for better confirmation
The best action depends on margin, urgency, and confidence.
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## 8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used
This example uses:
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions`
- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0020-posture-changes-by-audience`
- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price`
- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report`
- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports`
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## 9. Success Condition
If the model sees a report and asks not only what was said, but who benefits if it is believed, this file is functioning correctly.
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