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docs/scenarios/SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0002.md

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+# SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0002
+## The Capuan Timber Yard Fire
+### Status: Canonical Scenario Seed
+### Layer: OTIVM (Roman Merchant)
+### Purpose: Merchant-opportunity scenario driven by destruction of upstream material stock, cascading shortages, and route-constrained arbitrage
+### Repository Path: docs/scenarios/SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0002.md
+
+---
+
+## 0. Design Intent
+
+Destruction of inputs creates wider cascades than destruction of finished goods.
+
+A timber yard fire affects construction, transport, agriculture, military logistics, and workshop recovery simultaneously. The participant should learn to think in dependencies rather than headlines.
+
+This scenario validates:
+
+- upstream choke-point logic
+- multi-sector shortage propagation
+- scenario compounding with 0001
+- route-constrained NEGOTIVM decisions
+- state demand distortion
+- time-sensitive arbitrage
+
+---
+
+## 1. Canonical Identifier
+
+| Field | Value |
+|---|---|
+| Scenario ID | `SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0002` |
+| Title | The Capuan Timber Yard Fire |
+| Token | `capuan_timber_yard_fire` |
+| Domain | merchant |
+| Repeatable | yes |
+| Hidden Truth Variants | yes |
+
+---
+
+## 2. Setting
+
+| Parameter | Value |
+|---|---|
+| Primary City | Capua |
+| Venture Route | Ostia -> Capua |
+| Site Type | timber seasoning / cutting / fabrication yard |
+| Stored Stock | planks, beams, wheel timber, handle blanks, wagon parts |
+| Strategic Context | routine military preparation and contractor demand |
+
+---
+
+## 3. Historical Basis
+
+Roman Italy required sustained timber flows for:
+
+- construction
+- carts and wheels
+- agricultural implements
+- scaffolding
+- river and coastal craft components
+- military logistics
+- fuel and charcoal production
+
+Contractor yards and timber depots plausibly stored seasoned stock for downstream use or onward shipment.
+
+This scenario is an analogue model, not a claim of a specific recorded Capuan incident.
+
+Confidence: Medium  
+Sources: Roman logistics scholarship; transport studies; timber demand in antiquity.
+
+---
+
+## 4. Visible Event
+
+Night fire spreads through the Capuan timber yard.
+
+By sunrise:
+
+- plank stacks destroyed
+- beams charred or unusable
+- wheel stock lost
+- handle blanks consumed
+- sheds collapsed
+- carts trapped or burned
+- adjacent workshops disrupted
+- guards report suspicious movement or conflicting stories
+
+Public cause unresolved.
+
+---
+
+## 5. Hidden Cause Variants
+
+| Token | Description |
+|---|---|
+| accidental_fire | lamp, spark, careless storage |
+| contractor_fraud | debt escape through loss |
+| rival_arson | competing supplier |
+| enemy_sabotage | hostile agents |
+| labor_revenge | wage dispute |
+| magistrate_pressure | coercive redevelopment |
+| theft_coverup | crime hidden by fire |
+
+Signals only. No certainty.
+
+---
+
+## 6. Immediate Effects (0–7 days)
+
+| Effect | Direction |
+|---|---|
+| available timber stock | down |
+| carpentry throughput | down |
+| wheelwright capacity | down |
+| cart repair speed | down |
+| urgent buyers | up |
+| speculation | up |
+| rumor volume | up |
+
+---
+
+## 7. Secondary Effects (7–30 days)
+
+| Effect | Direction |
+|---|---|
+| timber prices in Capua | up |
+| transport rates | up |
+| farm implement delays | up |
+| building delays | up |
+| substitute imports | up |
+| theft risk for lumber | up |
+| contractor credit stress | up |
+| state requisition pressure | possible |
+
+---
+
+## 8. Tertiary Effects (30+ days)
+
+| Effect | Direction |
+|---|---|
+| regional forest extraction | up |
+| road congestion | up |
+| poor-quality substitutes used | possible |
+| migration of craftsmen | possible |
+| durable merchant contracts | possible |
+| local political realignment | possible |
+
+---
+
+## 9. Merchant Venture Logic (Ostia -> Capua)
+
+Merchant departs Ostia before Capua fully reprices.
+
+### Candidate Cargo Ventures
+
+| Cargo | Thesis |
+|---|---|
+| nails / fasteners | rebuild demand |
+| bronze tools | carpentry recovery |
+| iron tools | substitute demand |
+| rope | hauling operations |
+| pitch / tar | treatment and repair |
+| wheel hardware | transport bottleneck relief |
+| food staples | urgent crews and displaced labor |
+
+### Separate Financial Opportunities (Non-Cargo)
+
+These are distinct NEGOTIA and should not be modeled as cargo:
+
+| Action | Thesis |
+|---|---|
+| short-term lending | distressed contractor liquidity |
+| advance purchase contracts | lock future timber supply |
+| debt claim acquisition | buy impaired obligations cheaply |
+| partnership finance | fund rebuild for future share |
+
+---
+
+## 10. Linked Scenario Logic (with 0001)
+
+If SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0001 occurred recently:
+
+- fewer bronze tools available regionally
+- timber processing slower
+- rebuild costs higher
+- cart shortages worsen transport delays
+- price spikes intensify
+
+Scenarios should compound rather than exist in isolation.
+
+---
+
+## 11. Parameters With Confidence Tags
+
+| Parameter Token | Type | Confidence | Basis |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| timber_stock_destroyed | resource | High | direct scenario state |
+| yard_damage_level | event | High | direct scenario state |
+| timber_price_capua | market | Medium | standard shortage response |
+| carpentry_capacity | production | Medium | dependent workshops |
+| transport_rate_capua | market | Medium | cart scarcity + urgency |
+| implement_delay_days | temporal | Medium | backlog effects |
+| sabotage_rumor_credibility | information | Low | social inference |
+| state_requisition_pressure | political | Low | contingent context |
+| venture_window_days | opportunity | Medium | route duration + repricing lag |
+| theft_risk_lumber | security | Low | scarcity response |
+
+---
+
+## 12. Relations
+
+```text
+timber_stock_destroyed ↑ -> timber_price_capua ↑
+timber_price_capua ↑ -> import_incentive_ostia_to_capua ↑
+carpentry_capacity ↓ -> building_delay ↑
+wheelwright_capacity ↓ -> transport_rate_capua ↑
+transport_rate_capua ↑ -> food_prices ↑
+implement_delay_days ↑ -> agricultural_output_risk ↑
+rumor_credibility ↑ -> speculative_buying ↑
+state_requisition_pressure ↑ -> civilian_access ↓
+recent_scenario_0001 == true -> recovery_speed ↓
+```
+
+---
+
+## 13. Replayability Controls
+
+Randomize:
+
+- hidden cause
+- severity
+- stock saved percentage
+- rival merchant speed
+- military urgency
+- road delays
+- theft wave
+- magistrate intervention
+
+---
+
+## 14. Repository Use
+
+Internal simulation substrate. Not player-facing text.
+
+Use to validate:
+
+- precursor material economics
+- scenario chaining
+- route-constrained arbitrage
+- hidden information systems
+- cascading shortages
+- regional price propagation
+- cargo vs finance NEGOTIVM distinction
+
+---
+
+## 15. Canonical Success Condition
+
+If the participant stops asking:
+
+“What burned?”
+
+and starts asking:
+
+“What depended on it?”
+
+then the scenario is functioning correctly.