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docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0004-source-motive-changes-confidence.md

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+# CORPUS-0004
+## Source Motive Changes Confidence
+### Status: Training Corpus Seed
+### Layer: Layer_2--Uncertainty
+### Purpose: Teach that the reliability of a report depends partly on what the source may gain or avoid by shaping the report
+### Repository Path: docs/training/corpus/Layer_2--Uncertainty/CORPUS-0004-source-motive-changes-confidence.md
+
+---
+
+## 0. Scenario
+
+A trader in Ostia hears that oil prices in Capua are rising.
+
+The report comes from a cart owner who has empty space heading toward Capua.
+
+The report may be true.
+
+But the source benefits if the trader believes it and hires the cart.
+
+The trader must evaluate the report and the source's motive separately.
+
+---
+
+## 1. Report Received
+
+A cart owner says:
+
+> Oil is selling high in Capua. If you have stock, send it now.
+
+The same cart owner then adds:
+
+> I have space leaving today.
+
+This does not prove the report is false.
+
+It does mean the source has a reason to make the opportunity sound urgent.
+
+---
+
+## 2. Known Facts
+
+| Fact | Value |
+|---|---|
+| Location of trader | Ostia |
+| Destination discussed | Capua |
+| Good | oil |
+| Reported condition | Capua price rising |
+| Source | cart owner |
+| Source benefit if believed | cart space sold |
+| Current true Capua price | unknown |
+
+---
+
+## 3. Why Motive Matters
+
+A source may shape a report because he wants:
+
+- cart space sold
+- goods bought
+- goods avoided
+- a rival delayed
+- a buyer reassured
+- a creditor calmed
+- a price raised or lowered
+- attention moved away from another fact
+
+Motive does not equal falsehood.
+
+Motive changes confidence.
+
+---
+
+## 4. Possible Interpretations
+
+### Interpretation A — Report True
+
+Oil really is selling high in Capua.
+
+The cart owner is both informed and self-interested.
+
+### Interpretation B — Report Exaggerated
+
+Oil sells somewhat higher, but not enough to justify urgency.
+
+The cart owner amplifies the price to fill space.
+
+### Interpretation C — Report Stale
+
+The cart owner heard old news and repeats it because it helps him.
+
+### Interpretation D — Report False
+
+The cart owner invents or distorts the claim to sell transport.
+
+The trader must not assume which interpretation is correct without more evidence.
+
+---
+
+## 5. Correct Model Behavior
+
+The model should separate:
+
+| Category | Meaning |
+|---|---|
+| claim_content | what the source says |
+| source_identity | who says it |
+| source_motive | what the source may gain |
+| source_access | whether the source could plausibly know |
+| report_age | how old the information may be |
+| confidence_adjustment | how motive changes reliability |
+| action_decision | whether to act, verify, reduce exposure, or decline |
+
+A motivated source can still provide useful information.
+
+The confidence should be adjusted, not automatically set to zero.
+
+---
+
+## 6. Incorrect Model Behavior
+
+The model should not:
+
+- accept a report at face value because it is useful
+- reject every motivated report as false
+- ignore who benefits if the actor believes the report
+- confuse motive with proof of deception
+- ignore whether the source could plausibly know
+- treat all sources as equally reliable
+- calculate final profit from a motivated report alone
+
+---
+
+## 7. Decision Options
+
+The trader may:
+
+- ask a second source
+- negotiate lower cart terms
+- send a smaller cargo
+- reserve cart space conditionally
+- ask when the source heard the report
+- compare other transport prices
+- act quickly while accepting source-risk
+- decline and wait for better confirmation
+
+The best action depends on margin, urgency, and confidence.
+
+---
+
+## 8. Layer-0 And Layer-1 Concepts Used
+
+This example uses:
+
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0007-information-arrives-unevenly`
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0008-rumor-is-uncertain-information`
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0012-every-venture-risks-loss`
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0018-rivalry-changes-conditions`
+- `Layer_0/CORPUS-0020-posture-changes-by-audience`
+- `Layer_1/CORPUS-0005-rumor-before-confirmed-price`
+- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0001-stale-price-report`
+- `Layer_2/CORPUS-0002-conflicting-reports`
+
+---
+
+## 9. Success Condition
+
+If the model sees a report and asks not only what was said, but who benefits if it is believed, this file is functioning correctly.