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+# SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0001  
+## The Bronze Forge Fire  
+### Status: Canonical Scenario Seed  
+### Layer: OTIVM (Roman Merchant)  
+### Purpose: Foundational merchant-opportunity scenario driven by urban industrial disruption, rumor, and collateral demand discovery  
+### Repository Path: docs/scenarios/SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0001.md
+
+---
+
+## 0. Design Intent
+
+A skilled MERCATOR does not react only to visible loss.  
+He reacts to shortages that will emerge elsewhere, before those markets understand why.
+
+This scenario exists to validate:
+
+- second-order opportunity recognition  
+- route-constrained agency  
+- urban supply-chain dependency propagation  
+- rumor under uncertainty  
+- time-sensitive arbitrage  
+- actor-trait effects on recovery  
+
+---
+
+## 1. Canonical Identifier
+
+| Field | Value |
+|---|---|
+| Scenario ID | `SCENARIO-MERCHANT-0001` |
+| Title | The Bronze Forge Fire |
+| Token | `bronze_forge_fire` |
+| Domain | merchant |
+| Repeatable | yes |
+| Hidden Truth Variants | yes |
+
+---
+
+## 2. Setting
+
+| Parameter | Value |
+|---|---|
+| Primary City | Ostia |
+| Reachable Venture Route | Ostia -> Capua |
+| District Type | industrial / mixed-use |
+| Nearby Assets | creek, bridge, grazing yard, frontage |
+| Legacy Asset | large bronze forge compound |
+
+---
+
+## 3. Historical Basis
+
+This scenario uses historically plausible urban-industrial structures common to premodern cities:
+
+- inherited land privileges  
+- scarce transport frontage  
+- water access  
+- old workshops on favorable plots  
+- frequent destructive fires  
+- contested redevelopment pressure  
+- credit stress after disasters  
+
+It is an analogue scenario, not a claim of a specific recorded Ostian incident.
+
+Confidence: Medium  
+Sources: comparative premodern urban fire history; Roman urban workshop archaeology; general ancient commercial scholarship.
+
+---
+
+## 4. Visible Event
+
+At dawn, smoke rises from the bronze forge compound.
+
+By midday:
+
+- roof collapse reported  
+- fuel stores consumed  
+- molds damaged  
+- workers displaced  
+- adjacent traders disrupted  
+- access partially blocked  
+
+Public cause remains unresolved.
+
+---
+
+## 5. Hidden Cause Variants
+
+| Token | Description |
+|---|---|
+| accidental_fire | spark, kiln, storage mishap |
+| negligence | poor safety practice |
+| debt_escape | records loss / creditor evasion |
+| coercive_persuasion | pressure to force sale |
+| family_conflict | internal sabotage |
+| competitor_action | rival industrial interest |
+| magistrate_pressure | unofficial clearance |
+
+Player never receives certainty, only signals.
+
+---
+
+## 6. Actor Model — Forge Clan
+
+| Trait Token | Meaning |
+|---|---|
+| asset_rich | controls valuable land |
+| liquidity_poor | lacks rebuild cash |
+| greedy | rejects fair terms |
+| politically_weak | limited protection |
+| strategically_foolish | poor long-term choices |
+| prideful | delays compromise |
+
+These traits should be reusable actor parameters for later FACTOR/NPC systems.
+
+---
+
+## 7. Immediate Effects (0–7 days)
+
+| Effect | Direction |
+|---|---|
+| bronze output | down |
+| tool repair capacity | down |
+| displaced labor | up |
+| scrap availability | up |
+| speculation | up |
+| rumor volume | up |
+
+---
+
+## 8. Secondary Effects (7–30 days)
+
+| Effect | Direction |
+|---|---|
+| bronze tool prices in Ostia | up |
+| substitute iron demand | up |
+| timber demand | up |
+| stone demand | up |
+| fuel demand | up |
+| temporary rents | up |
+| creditor leverage | up |
+
+---
+
+## 9. Merchant Venture Logic (Ostia -> Capua Only)
+
+Merchant cannot freely exploit every local opportunity. He can launch the permitted venture route to Capua.
+
+### Correct Arbitrage Directions
+
+| Cargo | Direction | Thesis |
+|---|---|---|
+| substitute tools | Ostia -> Capua | sell unaffected stock before Capua reprices |
+| iron stock | Ostia -> Capua | substitution demand spreads outward |
+| hardware / nails | Ostia -> Capua | rebuild ripple and carpentry demand |
+| timber fittings | Ostia -> Capua | construction demand chain |
+| bronze tools | Capua -> Ostia | anticipate Ostia shortage |
+| charcoal / fuel | Capua -> Ostia | rebuild fuel demand |
+
+---
+
+## 10. Parameters With Confidence Tags
+
+| Parameter Token | Type | Confidence | Basis |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| workshop_output_bronze | production | High | direct scenario state |
+| urban_fire_damage | event | High | direct scenario state |
+| rumor_credibility | information | Medium | inferred social response |
+| rebuild_delay_days | temporal | Medium | depends on cause + finance |
+| timber_price_ostia | market | Medium | standard post-fire demand |
+| iron_substitution_rate | industrial | Low | requires local craft data |
+| displaced_workers_count | labor | Medium | workshop scale estimate |
+| district_access_penalty | movement | Medium | fire cordon / debris |
+| creditor_pressure | financial | Low | sparse direct evidence |
+| tool_price_capua | market | Low | lagged transmission model |
+| venture_window_days | opportunity | Medium | route duration + reaction lag |
+
+---
+
+## 11. Relations
+
+```text
+urban_fire_damage ↑ -> workshop_output_bronze ↓
+workshop_output_bronze ↓ -> bronze_tool_price_ostia ↑
+bronze_tool_price_ostia ↑ -> import_incentive_capua_to_ostia ↑
+bronze scarcity ↑ -> iron_substitution_rate ↑
+rebuild_delay_days ↑ -> timber_price_ostia ↑
+rumor_credibility ↑ -> speculative_buying ↑
+displaced_workers_count ↑ -> wages ↓ (short-term)
+district_access_penalty ↑ -> freight_cost_local ↑
+information_delay_capua > 0 -> temporary arbitrage_window ↑
+```
+
+---
+
+## 12. Replayability Controls
+
+Randomize:
+
+- hidden cause  
+- severity  
+- rebuild speed  
+- magistrate stance  
+- rival merchant response  
+- rumor truthfulness  
+- transport delays  
+
+---
+
+## 13. Repository Use
+
+Internal simulation substrate. Not player-facing text.
+
+Use to validate:
+
+- event ingestion  
+- market propagation  
+- route constraints  
+- hidden information systems  
+- actor trait systems  
+- opportunity windows  
+
+---
+
+## 14. Canonical Success Condition
+
+If the participant stops asking:
+
+“What burned?”
+
+and starts asking:
+
+“Who now needs what, where, and when?”
+
+then the scenario is functioning correctly.